双支柱调控的金融稳定效应研究*

本文基于全球42个主要经济体1991—2016年的面板数据，系统考察了双支柱政策框架的金融稳定效应。实证结果表明：（1）货币政策和宏观审慎政策在抑制家庭信贷增长上具有显著作用，双支柱政策在缓解金融风险顺周期性上具有显著的金融稳定效应；（2）盯住贷款的宏观审慎工具和针对借款人、贷款人的宏观审慎组合具有更为显著的金融稳定效应；（3）新兴经济体的货币政策在抑制家庭信贷扩张上的作用不显著，但其宏观审慎政策的金融稳定效应相较发达经济体更为显著，发达经济体双支柱政策的金融稳定效应总体显著，其中货币政策效应更为突出；（4）发达经济体的货币政策效应在下行周期优于上行周期，宏观审慎政策及其与货币政策的交互效应在上行周期优于下行周期；（5）只有个别宏观审慎工具会对失业率、消费和物价产生微弱的负效应。     

Can Industrial Restructuring Significantly Reduce Energy Consumption? Evidence from China

This article uses China’s input–output (I-O) tables in 2002, 2007, and 2012 to estimate the real energy consumption of each sector after the I-O adjustment. The relationship between the sectors is further analyzed using the utility analysis method based on ecological network analysis. The empirical results show that although the traditional energy-intensive industries are the major energy-consuming sectors from a direct energy consumption perspective, large energy consumption by energy-intensive industries is transferred to downstream industries through intermediate products after the I-O adjustment. Specifically, the building industry and service sector are the sectors with the highest real energy consumption. With the upgrading and optimization of the industrial structure, the proportion of energy-intensive sectors in China is declining. However, the development of the service sector and infrastructure construction still requires large intermediate inputs. Thus, industrial restructuring cannot significantly reduce China’s total energy consumption.     

Bayesian selection of technology assumptions for the transformation from supply-use to input–output tables

ABSTRACT

In the construction of input–output models from supply-use tables, technology assumptions disambiguate how an industry uses inputs in the production recipe of multiple outputs. This paper uses Bayes' theorem to select technology assumptions, taking into account empirical observations. The paper presents a formulation to explore hybrids between product and industry technology assumptions in product-by-product tables. We then present Markov chain Monte-Carlo techniques to implement the Bayesian method for selecting technology assumptions. We apply the method in a case study using Eurostat supply-use tables of 2004 and 2005, exhibiting a volume of secondary products of less than 13%, and 59 products and industries per country. The results show that the choice of technology is not important, given that there is no strong evidence in favour of any of them.     

结构性去杠杆下的中国宏观经济*——2018年中期中国宏观经济分析与预测

2018年以来中国经济平稳运行，物价水平稳定，就业形势整体向好，经济增长质量稳步提升。不过，当前中国经济仍然面临一定的下行压力，尤其需要警惕消费增速过快下滑、宏观税负进一步加重、民间投资复苏乏力、部分企业效益状况显著恶化、去杠杆过程中金融体系不稳定性加剧等主要风险点。此外，杠杆率高企是现阶段中国经济面临的突出问题，而且中国的杠杆率在不同部门之间以及各部门内部均体现出明显的结构性特点。为此，中央在2018年专门提出了“结构性去杠杆”的新思路。在“结构性去杠杆”稳步推进的大背景下，宏观政策既要积极应对经济下行压力，谨防去杠杆带来的经济增速超预期下滑风险，又要激发经济内生增长动力，促使经济实现长期可持续发展和“高质量发展”。     

政府作用与旅游区投资效益

尽管国有资本要逐步退出旅游产业，但这并不意味着政府对旅游业投资管理可以袖手旁观、听其自然。论文从旅游区投资角度出发，分析和强调了政府在宏观调控、政府管制、投资模式选择等5个方面应起的重要作用。     

房地产调控政策失效的原因探究

"国六条"出台已经一年,我国房地产价格不跌反涨,中央政府稳定房价的调控目标并未实现。从我国房地产立法滞后、存在调控时滞、房地产宏观调控中地方政府与中央政府及开发商之间的博弈、房地产市场供求矛盾突出等四个方面分析了调控房价政策失效的深层次原因。     

表上作业法和Matlab求解土方调配方案的比较

论述了表上作业法和以线性规划理论为基础的Matlab软件求解土方调配方案两种方法,通过具体事例分析,用Matlab软件求解的调配方案跟用表上作业法求得的土方调配方案是一样的,但用Matlab软件确定土方调配方案不仅速度快而且运算结果也比较精确。合理的确定土方调配方案可以缩短工期、降低成本,提高建设项目的经济效益。     

储油罐的变位识别与罐容表标定研究

通常加油站都有若干个储存燃油的地下储油罐,并且一般都有与之配套的"油位计量管理系统",但是由于地基变形等原因,罐体会发生横向和纵向的偏斜。本文建立了数学模型对罐容量进行了重新标定。在小椭圆储油罐中,对油罐中油的形状进行了分类讨论。研究探讨了罐内储油量与油位高度及变位参数(纵向倾斜角度α和横向偏转角度β)之间的一般关系,通过模拟结果发现实验值与观察值的结果相关性很高(相关系数超过0.99)。     

Maximum likelihood estimation of a binomial proportion using one‐sample misclassified binary data

In this article, we construct two likelihood‐based confidence intervals (CIs) for a binomial proportion parameter using a double‐sampling scheme with misclassified binary data. We utilize an easy‐to‐implement closed‐form algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters by maximizing the full‐likelihood function. The two CIs are a naïve Wald interval and a modified Wald interval. Using simulations, we assess and compare the coverage probabilities and average widths of our two CIs. Finally, we conclude that the modified Wald interval, unlike the naïve Wald interval, produces close‐to‐nominal CIs under various simulations and, thus, is preferred in practice. Utilizing the expressions derived, we also illustrate our two CIs for a binomial proportion parameter using real‐data example.     

宏观审慎政策:选择什么目标,需要什么工具

包括逆周期性资本比率、动态准备金、贷款价值比率、资本管制等在内的现有宏观审慎政策工具,分别有不同的效果及其局限性,而且宏观审慎政策的有效实施需要与货币政策、财政政策协调配合。因此,采取谨慎还是积极的政策框架取决于理论研究和政策试验的结果。