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1.
Machine learning (ML) methods are gaining popularity in the forecasting field, as they have shown strong empirical performance in the recent M4 and M5 competitions, as well as in several Kaggle competitions. However, understanding why and how these methods work well for forecasting is still at a very early stage, partly due to their complexity. In this paper, I present a framework for regression-based ML that provides researchers with a common language and abstraction to aid in their study. To demonstrate the utility of the framework, I show how it can be used to map and compare ML methods used in the M5 Uncertainty competition. I then describe how the framework can be used together with ablation testing to systematically study their performance. Lastly, I use the framework to provide an overview of the solution space in regression-based ML forecasting, identifying areas for further research.  相似文献   
2.
Due to the popularity of online travel agency (OTA) booking platforms, OTAs display diverse information, including features of products, on their websites. Based on choice architecture literature, this study aimed to examine the effect of product quality and price sorting (vs. non-sorting) on extreme option choice aversion and identify the moderating effect of displays that made it difficult to read information. The results of a series of four experimental studies (total n = 2838 online panel members) demonstrated that the tendency to choose the non-extreme or middle-attributed options was stronger when quality and price were displayed sorted (vs. non-sorted). It was theorized that easy comparison of multiple options leads to decision-making. The positive effect of quality and price sorting on extreme option choice aversion was significantly reduced when customers had difficulty reading the displayed information.  相似文献   
3.
This work presents key insights on the model development strategies used in our cross-learning-based retail demand forecast framework. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art univariate models in the time series forecasting literature. It has achieved 17th position in the accuracy track of the M5 forecasting competition, which is among the top 1% of solutions.  相似文献   
4.
We characterize welfare maximizing capital requirement policies in a quantitative macrobanking model with household, firm, and bank defaults calibrated to Euro Area data. We optimize on the level of the capital requirements applied to each loan class and their sensitivity to changes in default risk. We find that getting the level right (so that bank failure risk remains contained) is of foremost importance, while the optimal sensitivity to default risk is positive but typically smaller than under Basel internal ratings based (IRB) formulas. Starting from low levels, savers and borrowers benefit from higher capital requirements. At higher levels, only savers prefer tighter requirements.  相似文献   
5.
We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand.  相似文献   
6.
The advance of cryptocurrencies has sparked wide concern over their interplay with the existing global financial market. This paper analyzes the risk spillover relation between cryptocurrencies and major financial assets, and unravels how cryptocurrencies could influence global financial systemic risk. We find that cryptocurrencies function as a separate risk source from traditional assets. Major legislative, financial and technological events in the cryptocurrency market may affect risk spillover dynamics. Although the overall penetration of cryptocurrencies is not yet deep, introducing cryptocurrency can significantly increase the systemic risk to traditional markets during low risk level episodes.  相似文献   
7.
Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the world has operated on a de facto system of free‐floating exchange rates, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency. The system, characterized by large pro‐cyclical capital flows and chronic imbalances, is inherently unstable, and has contributed to repeated crises, recessions and geopolitical tensions. One potentially “least‐difficult” line of reform would be to allow the evolution of a multi‐currency system, underpinned by an expanded role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Attempts to promote wider use of the SDR have foundered on the liquidity premium. However, for Chinese corporations and institutions, at present restricted in their capital account activities, the SDR liquidity premium would appear less daunting. The Chinese authorities could provide policy encouragement for the use of SDRs by their institutions. This initiative, supported by China's Special Administrative Region Hong Kong, would kick‐start an international SDR ecosystem, and encourage even broader use of SDRs, to the benefit of international monetary stability.  相似文献   
8.
战术面向服务架构(TSOA)是实现战术云平台服务基础设施的重要支撑概念。由于战术环境的复杂性,目前对TSOA实施过程中面临问题和相关实现技术的总结还较少。为此,开展了针对TSOA的概念以及相关技术的研究。首先,从战术环境下的TSOA架构需求背景出发,介绍了TSOA架构的组成以及适应性特征;然后,通过分析战术环境下设备和网络等多方面存在的限制性因素,明确实施TSOA架构所面临的挑战以及需要解决的关键问题,并对实现过程中涉及的服务发现、消息传输机制、网络状态自适应等相关技术进行归纳;最后,对国内外的相关研究工作进行总结,期望对推动TSOA架构的具体实施提供一定参考。  相似文献   
9.
This paper estimates the value of political connections by examining stock price reactions to sudden deaths of retired government officials who were acting as independent directors of private firms in China from 2003 to 2012. Employing an event study, we find that, if a private firm loses political connections because of the sudden death of an independent director who was previously a government official, its stock price drops 3.61% on average within ten trading days. After the loss of political connections, we find that it is possible but infeasible for a private firm to reestablish political connections with the government in a short period of time. Moreover, the sudden death of a retired government official leads to a reduction in the economic benefits (e.g., bank loans, tax preference, and government subsidies) obtained by a private firm, which provides a reasonable explanation for the negative stock price reaction after losing political connections.  相似文献   
10.
The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.  相似文献   
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