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1.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(2):596-612
We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries. 相似文献
2.
Applying behavioural economic theory, we argue that the frequency of philanthropic activity is important in determining corporate philanthropy's economic outcome. Using Chinese data from 2003 to 2016, we find that firms with more frequent philanthropic activities obtain more government subsidies than firms that only engage in one-off charitable donations. Firms with better corporate governance, such as higher management ownership and more independent directors, are more likely to adopt a strategy of frequent donation. Furthermore, firms are more likely to be frequent donors when management or local government officers have a long tenure. Our findings provide insight into the giving process and suggest that firms can maximize the benefit of corporate philanthropy if they strategically consider the donation frequency and donation amount simultaneously. 相似文献
3.
Based on how tourists interpret the destination experience and on attachment theory, this study investigates the influencing mechanism of tourists' happiness on revisit intention for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) cultural tourism destinations. Three tourist samples confirm the three dimensions of tourists' happiness: positive emotions, engagement, and meaning. Two surveys were conducted to test the direct and indirect influence of tourists' happiness on revisit intention and the moderating role of tourists' health consciousness. The results show that tourists' happiness promotes memorable tourism experience and place attachment, in turn stimulating revisit intention. The results also support health consciousness as a significant moderator between happiness, place attachment, and revisit intention. The findings enrich theoretical understanding of tourists’ happiness and provide marketing and management advice for TCM cultural tourism destinations. 相似文献
4.
Zhi-Min Dai 《新兴市场金融与贸易》2018,54(10):2400-2408
This article examines how investor sentiment affects positive feedback trading behavior. By analyzing the daily closing total return of CSI 300 index and its individual returns of stocks, we find that relatively high or low sentiment induces active positive feedback trading. With a specific indicator of sentiment, we explain the microstructure setting of the relationship between positive feedback trading and sentiment. We adopt the classical feedback model from Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) to measure positive feedback trading behavior. By adding sentiment factor to the model, we successfully explain how sentiment influences the behavior of both feedback traders and rational investors. The empirical findings suggest that positive feedback traders are more likely to trade when the prices of most securities move forward together. When the sentiment of feedback traders is at an intermediate level, the feedback trading behavior is insignificant. 相似文献
5.
James L. Chan 《公共资金与管理》2018,38(6):453-460
In implementing its national strategy to achieve global leadership, China needs a new public administration theory that integrates political administration, economic management and social regulation. Even so, China has already started to promote its brand of political and economic development abroad. Therefore new comparative research and dialogue is called to explore the universality of Chinese and Western public administration ideas. 相似文献
6.
Consumers’ thinking style (e.g., dialectical thinking), which is fundamental to cognition, has been paid inadequate attention in the consumer literature. This research explores the impact of dialectical thinking on Chinese consumer responses toward crisis‐associated products/brands. Findings in three experimental studies indicate that, in comparison to those primed with nondialectical thinking, consumers primed with dialectical thinking report higher levels of purchase intention and trust for a crisis‐associated product/brand. This is the case not just for products with Chinese cultural background, but also for products with western cultural background. Consumers’ perceived severity of crises moderates the impact of dialectical thinking, with a stronger impact in a highly severe crisis situation than in a less severe one. A survey study indicates a similar pattern. These findings are important in suggesting ways of encouraging Chinese consumers to be insistent on quality standard in order to better protect their consumer rights, and moreover, for multinational corporations on how best to respond and formulate strategies of handling product‐harm crises in the Chinese market. 相似文献
7.
本文以清宫所藏奏折与内务府档案中所包含的大量获罪官员的抄家记录为基础,系统估算清代官绅家庭的资产结构。过去对传统社会精英阶层家庭财产和收入的理解,以田地、房屋首当其冲,偶或涉及借贷资本,但是对各自比重一直没有明确数字。我们先设计一套可以与现代家庭资产统计方式接轨的分类框架,然后介绍对家产各项内容的估价方法,并举案例说明。最后通过对185个官绅家产案例进行统计和分析,发现这些案例在金融商业类资产项下有不低的比重,同时,金玉铜磁、绸缎皮衣等各种实物也占据了相当的份额。作为传统资产形式的田房不动产一方面是投资置业首选,但另一方面当财富积累到一定水平后比重不断下降,以致在社会财富阶梯顶端已不具明显优势。 相似文献
8.
Institutional Economics as Theory of Policy Change: Impact of Past Policy Failures on Present Policy
Koji Noda 《Journal of economic issues》2018,52(1):117-135
Social scientists have developed several theories for understanding or evaluating policy change over time. Since all costs or benefits are not internalized owing to positive transaction costs, policymaking is always implemented under cost underestimation conditions and, therefore, is imperfect. I call this trait policy failure in this article. Furthermore, I show that a new framework combining the social costs approach and the legal/economic approach in institutional economics is suitable and can be applied to evaluating how past policy failures affect present policy, providing as an example the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. 相似文献
9.
This is the first study to document evidence of technical trading effectiveness at firm level in the Chinese A-share market by investigating the relationship between excess profits of technical trading rules and firm-specific characteristics. Our results reveal that firms with higher excess profits from technical trading have more noise traders and higher institutional ownership and that those firms tend to be growth firms with lower liquidity and higher firm-specific uncertainty. Further analysis shows that the profitability of technical trading rules is unsustainable and the excess profits of the highest technical trading profit quintile portfolio disappear in the following year. 相似文献
10.
Chinese tourists' views of nature and natural landscape interpretation: a generational perspective 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study investigates Chinese tourists’ views of nature, interest in animal experiences and their preferred natural landscape interpretation content from a generational perspective. Eight hundred and eight self-administered questionnaires were collected at Wulingyuan, a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site, in China. It suggests that overall Chinese traditional cultural values and beliefs, notably the thinking of tian ren he yi (oneness of nature with humans), still have considerable impacts on Chinese tourists. They were found to have a strong sense of connection with nature and a preference for cultural interpretations of natural landscapes. Meanwhile, Chinese might be reaching a point of convergence in terms of attitude towards nature and animals with their Western counterparts, as reflected by their weak anthropocentric view, and strong ethical and aesthetic appreciation of animals, regardless of generation cohorts. Yet, the study shows significant generational gaps: older generations have a stronger connection with nature, are more concerned about environmental issues and show more support for the Western approach towards nature protection; the younger generations hold weaker anthropocentrism, and are more interested in animals, yet are less likely to learn about nature through tourism interpretation. 相似文献