Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis

We consider simple methods to improve the growth nowcasts and forecasts obtained by mixed-frequency MIDAS and UMIDAS models with a variety of indicators during the Covid-19 crisis and recovery period, such as combining forecasts across various specifications for the same model and/or across different models, extending the model specification by adding MA terms, enhancing the estimation method by taking a similarity approach, and adjusting the forecasts to put them back on track using a specific form of intercept correction. Among these methods, adjusting the original nowcasts and forecasts by an amount similar to the nowcast and forecast errors made during the financial crisis and subsequent recovery seems to produce the best results for the US, notwithstanding the different source and characteristics of the financial crisis. In particular, the adjusted growth nowcasts for 2020Q1 get closer to the actual value, and the adjusted forecasts based on alternative indicators become much more similar, all unfortunately indicating a much slower recovery than without adjustment, and very persistent negative effects on trend growth. Similar findings also emerge for forecasts by institutions, for survey forecasts, and for the other G7 countries.     

Correction to: Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage

We provide a correction to Proposition 1 in Optimal and robust combination of forecasts via constrained optimization and shrinkage, published in the International Journal of Forecasting 38(1):97-116 (2021). This correction has no impact on any other result (neither theoretical nor empirical) provided in the above paper.     

毫米波多模单脉冲喇叭馈源的分析与设计

对多模单脉冲喇叭馈源的理论和设计方法进行了研究。针对高次模的模比计算和控制难点，提供了一种准确的分析理论，给出了高次模的产生规律和模比的计算方法。在此基础上分析设计了一个毫米波多模单脉冲喇叭馈源并加工了实物，其实测结果表明，该馈源具有带宽宽（>5%）、驻波比小（<1.2）、和差矛盾小（<1.5 dB）、方位和俯仰面方向图对称性好的特点，与理论分析结果、仿真设计结果非常吻合，达到了预期的设计效果。     

Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition

The 2018 M4 Forecasting Competition was the first M Competition to elicit prediction intervals in addition to point estimates. We take a closer look at the twenty valid interval submissions by examining the calibration and accuracy of the prediction intervals and evaluating their performances over different time horizons. Overall, the submissions fail to estimate the uncertainty properly. Importantly, we investigate the benefits of interval combination using six recently-proposed heuristics that can be applied prior to learning about the realizations of the quantities. Our results suggest that interval aggregation offers improvements in terms of both calibration and accuracy. While averaging interval endpoints maintains its practical appeal as being simple to implement and performs quite well when data sets are large, the median and the interior trimmed average are found to be robust aggregators for the prediction interval submissions across all 100,000 time series.     

全空域球面相控阵波束形成器的优化设计

针对目前全空域球面相控阵测控系统工程应用中波束数量、信号瞬时带宽等数字波束形成器性能和复杂度难以兼顾的问题，分析了常规波束形成方法在基于半球形结构的S频段大型共形天线阵列工程应用中的局限，给出了一种基于子阵划分的宽带数字波束形成器优化设计方法，通过优化幅相和时延补偿方式，使算法不受子阵尺寸限制，工程实现复杂度较低。系统建模和仿真验证表明该方法可以获得良好的瞬时带宽性能，具有较好的工程应用价值。     

新型Ka频段宽角扫描圆极化相控阵天线

提出了一种新型的Ka频段圆极化相控阵天线。天线单元以单馈电开槽贴片天线为基础实现圆极化，通过微带贴片表面加载介质和辅助辐射器，展宽了天线波束宽度并优化了单元轴比。以该天线为阵列单元，采用顺序旋转布阵技术优化得到的2×2子阵，其辐射方向图具有良好的旋转对称性，由该子阵扩展形成的相控阵天线，有效地实现了圆极化宽角扫描特性。以8×8矩形阵列为例，仿真分析了此类二维相控阵天线波束扫描过程中的方向图和极化特性。研究结果表明，天线在工作频段内可实现方位360°、俯仰±60°扫描，扫描范围内天线增益波动和轴比均小于3 dB，同时该天线具有低剖面（高度尺寸为0.08λ0，λ0为空气介质波长）、结构简单、易于加工和集成等特点，非常适合小型化或一体化相控阵天线系统应用。     

空间信息传输中的多天线技术综述

近年来，空间信息传输中的多天线技术得到了广泛关注和大量研究。首先介绍了多天线技术的信息论基础和演进过程；然后综述了多天线通信和雷达技术的研究进展，包括多输入多输出(Multiple-Input Multiple-Output,MIMO)卫星通信技术、深空天线组阵技术、空间多维协同传输理论与技术、MIMO雷达技术和分布式孔径相参合成雷达技术，分析了其中的关键技术及未来可研究的方向；最后，总结了多天线技术在航天测控领域应用的优势，展望了基于多天线的测控技术。     

一种利用机器学习优化MIMO窃听信道天线选择的方法

为保障多输入多输出窃听信道系统中信息传输的保密性，提出了一种基于机器学习的天线选择方案。首先利用机器学习解决分类问题准确率高、处理大数据高效这一优势，设计了基于奇异值分解的特征值提取、基于信干噪比的标签赋值方案，建立了k最近邻分类器和逻辑回归分类器选择最优天线最大化保密性能（可达保密速率和保密中断概率）。与传统天线选择方案相比，所提方案获得了几乎一致的保密性能，并且大幅降低了系统的选择复杂度和误比特率。     

相关信噪比对天线组阵相位估计性能的影响

传统天线组阵理论为了简化分析，均假设反正切相位鉴别器是一种最大似然估计器，其估计方差能够达到克拉美-罗下界。然而当相关信噪比在中等值以下时，这一假设条件不再适用。为此，分析了相关信噪比对相位估计性能的影响。针对传统天线组阵合成性能分析方法在描述低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能方面存在的问题，通过引入修正因子，得到了相位估计方差的理论公式，实现了对低相关信噪比条件下相位估计性能的准确描述。