Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased

Past forecast errors are employed frequently in the estimation of the unconditional forecast uncertainty, and several institutions have increased their forecast horizons in recent times. This work addresses the question of how forecast-error-based estimation can be performed if there are very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure that is required for the SUR estimator to be independent of unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of the forecast uncertainty, which estimates the forecast uncertainty for all horizons jointly, tends to deliver large efficiency gains relative to the OLS estimator (i.e., the sample mean of the squared forecast errors for each individual horizon) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England, the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the FOMC.     

真实型领导与团队创新绩效: 差错管理氛围与特质调节焦点的作用研究

团队创新是企业获取竞争优势,实现可持续发展的重要保证。差错管理氛围和特质焦点提供了理解团队创新的新视角。研究发现真实型领导通过营造差错管理氛围,对团队创新绩效产生正向影响;团队提升型特质调节焦点在差错管理氛围和团队创新绩效间起到正向调节作用。文章拓展了创新、差错管理氛围以及调节焦点等相关文献,并为提升团队创新绩效提供了管理建议。     

Is heterogeneous capital depreciation important for estimating firm-level productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper contributes to the existing literature on estimating firm-level production functions. Using Chinese manufacturing survey data, we employ the firm-level heterogeneous capital depreciation rate to measure firms’ investment and assess its role using Olley and Pakes (1996) (OP) production function estimation technique. Although there is some ongoing debate on the econometric soundness of the OP technique, we argue quantitatively that the heterogeneous depreciation rate muffles the measurement error associated with the key input demand investment. In our sample, it significantly narrows the gap of total factor productivity (TFP) estimates between the OP technique and a state-of-the-art estimation method that works without investment. We further reveal that the improved performance primarily originates from the dynamic evolution in the distribution of the capital depreciation rate.     

Target price forecasts: The roles of the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment

This paper reveals that in addition to fundamental factors, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment play an important role in analysts’ target price formation. Analysts’ forecasts of short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth are shown to be important explanatory variables for target prices; equally, the 52-week high price and recent investor sentiment are also shown to explain target price levels and especially target price biases. Our analysis additionally reveals that analysts place greater weight on these two non-fundamental factors in settings with greater task complexity and to some extent in those with greater resource constraints. Conversely, on balance, the results suggest that this increased reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our results show that target prices are useful in predicting future stock returns beyond earnings forecasts and commonly used risk proxies. However, in an internally consistent fashion, the informativeness of target prices for future returns is significantly reduced when greater weight is placed on either the 52-week high or recent investor sentiment in the target price formation process.     

全空域球面相控阵波束形成器的优化设计

针对目前全空域球面相控阵测控系统工程应用中波束数量、信号瞬时带宽等数字波束形成器性能和复杂度难以兼顾的问题，分析了常规波束形成方法在基于半球形结构的S频段大型共形天线阵列工程应用中的局限，给出了一种基于子阵划分的宽带数字波束形成器优化设计方法，通过优化幅相和时延补偿方式，使算法不受子阵尺寸限制，工程实现复杂度较低。系统建模和仿真验证表明该方法可以获得良好的瞬时带宽性能，具有较好的工程应用价值。     

一种利用均匀圆阵对称特性的近场源酉变换估计算法

针对现有均匀圆阵的近场源三维参数估计算法运算量大的缺点，提出了一种基于均匀圆阵对称特性的近场源酉变换估计算法。该算法利用均匀圆阵对称特性将阵列导向矢量进行酉变换和对角化分离处理，消除距离参数，把三维搜索问题化简为二维搜索问题，同时把复值方向矢量转化为实值方向矢量。计算机仿真结果显示,所提算法估计性能优于相关序列降维估计方法，与三维多重信号分类算法性能相当，且通过矩阵分离降维和实值化处理，减少了运算量，有利于工程实时处理。     

新型Ka频段宽角扫描圆极化相控阵天线

提出了一种新型的Ka频段圆极化相控阵天线。天线单元以单馈电开槽贴片天线为基础实现圆极化，通过微带贴片表面加载介质和辅助辐射器，展宽了天线波束宽度并优化了单元轴比。以该天线为阵列单元，采用顺序旋转布阵技术优化得到的2×2子阵，其辐射方向图具有良好的旋转对称性，由该子阵扩展形成的相控阵天线，有效地实现了圆极化宽角扫描特性。以8×8矩形阵列为例，仿真分析了此类二维相控阵天线波束扫描过程中的方向图和极化特性。研究结果表明，天线在工作频段内可实现方位360°、俯仰±60°扫描，扫描范围内天线增益波动和轴比均小于3 dB，同时该天线具有低剖面（高度尺寸为0.08λ0，λ0为空气介质波长）、结构简单、易于加工和集成等特点，非常适合小型化或一体化相控阵天线系统应用。     

双平行线阵的快速一维DOA估计

针对传统子空间算法需要进行特征值分解或奇异值分解等复杂计算的问题，提出一种双平行线阵（Double Parallel Linear Array,DPLA）的快速一维波达方向（Direction of Arrival，DOA）估计算法。算法通过处理互协方差矩阵的第一列元素构造出等效的噪声子空间，再通过求根MUSIC（Multiple Signal Classification）算法得到DOA估计，有效避开了特征值分解或奇异值分解，降低了计算复杂度，提高了运算速度。仿真结果表明，该算法在提高了估计精度的同时减少了估计时间。     

一种无人值守接力的靶场安控系统

本文论述了中国实行对外开放是邓小平和中国人民把握历史和时代发展规律作出的战略抉择并取得了巨大成就;分析总结了中国入世前对外开放的基本特征及其原因;重点探讨了中国入世后对外开放的新阶段、新特点及其应对措施,推动对外开放新阶段和开放型经济新发展。     

OPTIMAL CONTINUOUS-TIME HEDGING WITH LEPTOKURTIC RETURNS

We examine the behavior of optimal mean–variance hedging strategies at high rebalancing frequencies in a model where stock prices follow a discretely sampled exponential Lévy process and one hedges a European call option to maturity. Using elementary methods we show that all the attributes of a discretely rebalanced optimal hedge, i.e., the mean value, the hedge ratio, and the expected squared hedging error, converge pointwise in the state space as the rebalancing interval goes to zero. The limiting formulae represent 1-D and 2-D generalized Fourier transforms, which can be evaluated much faster than backward recursion schemes, with the same degree of accuracy. In the special case of a compound Poisson process we demonstrate that the convergence results hold true if instead of using an infinitely divisible distribution from the outset one models log returns by multinomial approximations thereof. This result represents an important extension of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein to markets with leptokurtic returns.