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1.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2020,36(2):489-506
This paper extends the joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2019), by incorporating a realized measure to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Furthermore, we propose and test a new model for the dynamics of the ES component. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method are employed for estimation, the properties of which are compared in a simulation study. The results favour the Bayesian approach, which is employed subsequently in a forecasting study of seven financial market indices. The proposed models are compared to a range of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric competitors, including GARCH, realized GARCH, the extreme value theory method and the joint VaR and ES models of Taylor (2019), in terms of the accuracy of one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts, over a long forecast sample period that includes the global financial crisis in 2007–2008. The results are favorable for the proposed models incorporating a realized measure, especially when employing the sub-sampled realized variance and the sub-sampled realized range. 相似文献
2.
论法律的限度——以食品安全问题的法律规制为视角 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
翟晓舟 《陕西省行政学院陕西省经济管理干部学院学报》2011,(4):109-111
目前,食品安全问题在全球引发的危机引起了各国政府以及全世界人民的关注,不论其食品安全监督管理体系是否完善,似乎都存在发生食品安全问题的危险。人们习惯于将普遍性的对某类正当权利的不断侵害归咎于该时期的法律不健全,寄望于通过完善法律体系杜绝侵害行为的发生。但是,法律的作用只限于在适当的范围内影响违法犯罪行为由最低值向最高值发展,即使是法治社会,法律也不是唯一有效的维护国家、社会、公民合法权益的途径,法律的限度随时存在。事实上,任何增加利益相关者幸福的手段都可以纵容或抑制某种行为的发生概率,只在于我们是否知道如何正确使用他们。 相似文献
3.
Stephen Pratt Wantanee Suntikul Elizabeth Agyeiwaah 《International Journal of Tourism Research》2020,22(5):564-581
Cooking classes are a good example of third‐generation gastronomic tourism experiences. It is important to determine which cooking class experience attributes are important to participants and assess the performance of these experiences. We assess the importance and performance of cooking class experiences and their impact on overall satisfaction. We first apply the conventional importance‐performance analysis approach, critically assessing the shortcomings of this approach. Next, we use three‐factor customer satisfaction theory with the alternative approaches of impact range‐performance analysis and impact‐asymmetry analysis to determine these impacts. The findings have marketing and operational implications by identifying which cooking class experience attributes to highlight and deliver. 相似文献
4.
地震检波器是用于地震勘探的专用振动传感器,其性能对地震记录的品质有着重大影响。结合野外勘探对地震检波器的实际需求,探讨了检波器的假频,失真系数,允差,温度性能及可靠性等技术指标,为用户选用合适的检波器提供了更为完善的依据。 相似文献
5.
Characteristic properties of multivariate survival functions in terms of residual life distributions
Chunsheng Ma 《Metrika》1998,47(1):227-240
This paper discusses the relationships among some characteristic properties of the multivariate survival function based on the residual life distribution, and provides the conditions for their equivalence. In the meanwhile, the corrected version of Ma (1996, Theorem 1 (ii) and (iii)) is given. 相似文献
6.
This paper presents a careful investigation of the three popular calibration weighting methods: (i) generalised regression; (ii) generalised exponential tilting and (iii) generalised pseudo empirical likelihood, with a major focus on computational aspects of the methods and some empirical evidences on calibrated weights. We also propose a simple weight trimming method for range‐restricted calibration. The finite sample behaviour of the weights obtained by the three calibration weighting methods and the effectiveness of the proposed weight trimming method are examined through limited simulation studies. 相似文献
7.
本文主要介绍了新形势下医院内审的范围及内容,并针对审计工作范围及内容扩大这一情况,提出了相应的解决对策。 相似文献
8.
Michael S. Garver 《Journal of Business Logistics》2019,40(1):30-43
To increase the relevance of logistics and supply chain academic research, this paper recommends the development and testing of middle‐range theory and practice‐level theory. Yet, there are a number of research issues that arise when academic researchers test middle‐range and practice‐level theory, both in measuring constructs and in testing theoretical relationships between constructs. Concerning the measurement of constructs, this paper recommends that academic researchers pay more attention to content validity and undertake rigorous processes to ensure content validity. In addition, academic researchers need to more explicitly define constructs as either reflective or formative. If the construct is defined as formative, then the traditional statistical approaches to validate these measurement scales are not recommended. The appropriate use of employing single‐item measures for concrete constructs is discussed. In regard to conducting hypothesis tests, research issues associated with multicollinearity and omitted variable bias are discussed. Relative weight analysis is ideal for testing theoretical models and research hypotheses when survey data are obtained, multicollinearity is present, and there are a large number of independent variables predicting a dependent variable. Thus, relative weight analysis is ideal for testing research hypotheses in logistics and supply chain management. 相似文献
9.
林菡卿 《福建商业高等专科学校学报》2011,(1):38-42
以陶朱五字商训为主线,从五个方面分析了阿尔迪的经商原则,总结出了阿尔迪值得借鉴的成功经验:天,企业经营理念和明确的行为准则;地,商家诚信;人,仁,商家对待内外部的态度和原则;神,开拓事业的勇气和魄力;鬼,经商的手法。 相似文献
10.
王存胜 《安徽工业大学学报(社会科学版)》2007,24(1):17-18
法律关系不同,赔偿责任主体、责任范围也将不同。对蕴涵着复杂法律关系的损害赔偿案件,只有全面、系统剖析各种法律关系,才能准确地把握责任主体和责任范围,正确地做出法律适用选择,公正、合理地处理案件。 相似文献