Forecasting turning points in tourism growth

Tourism demand exhibits growth cycles, and it is important to forecast turning points in these growth cycles to minimise risks to destination management. This study estimates logistic models of Hong Kong tourism demand, which are then used to generate both short- and long-term forecasts of tourism growth. The performance of the models is evaluated using the quadratic probability score and hit rates. The results show that the ways in which this information is used are crucial to the models’ predictive power. Further, we investigate whether combining probability forecasts can improve predictive accuracy, and find that combination approaches, especially nonlinear combination approaches, are sensitive to the quality of forecasts in the pool. In addition, model screening can improve forecasting performance.     

The effects of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choices

Prior work has examined how, in the pursuit of long‐term goals, past goal behavior influences present goal choices. Instead, the present work focuses on how anticipating future goal behavior, specifically future goal‐inconsistent behavior, influences present goal choices. For example, how anticipating overspending on an upcoming vacation influences current spending behavior. The authors propose that the effect of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choice is moderated by the perceived changeability of the future behavior. When future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as changeable, consumers tend to imagine it away, and it has no systematic effect on present goal choices. However, when future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as unchangeable, consumers accept it as a matter of fact, and systematic effects occur. Specifically, some consumers not only fail to buffer against future goal‐inconsistent behavior's negative consequences, but tend to exacerbate those consequences by increasing their goal‐inconsistent behavior in the present. Four studies examine this surprising behavior, using an individual difference (the response‐to‐failure scale) to identify when and for whom it occurs. The studies demonstrate the role of perceived changeability using various manipulations across multiple critical goal domains such as spending, eating, and academics.     

Resistance to Inequality as a Competitive Strategy? – The Cases of the Finnish consumer Co-ops Elanto and HOK 1905–2015

Abstract

We examine the common pattern of success-failure-success displayed by many western consumer co-operatives in the twentieth century. We concentrate on the biggest Finnish regional co-ops, Elanto and HOK, and compare their successes and failures as well as those of British co-ops with the help of the Blue Ocean Strategy (BOS). The BOS argues that companies can succeed if they produce surplus value for their clients and if those surpluses simultaneously reduce costs.

We suggest that resistance to inequality was the biggest success factor for co-ops in the twentieth century.     

Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994

This article traces the developments in the market for residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the period 1970–2008. Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, business press, and interviews with practitioners, it shows that an MBS market meltdown in 1994 provided clear signals of problems with MBS. The market participants did not re-evaluate their use of risk management tools or adjust security design in response to the 1994 crisis, suggesting a lack of understanding of the implications of the crisis. The 1994 meltdown showed that MBS were vulnerable to systematic risks and that these risks could precipitate an MBS market crash. Furthermore, the 1994 meltdown demonstrated that large-scale investment in MBS could affect the primary mortgage market, thereby rendering the MBS risks unpredictable. After 1994, MBS investment shifted to MBS backed by mortgages with default risk – a development that led to the crash of 2008. By drawing parallels between the 1994 and 2008 crises, this article shows how the MBS market failed to self-correct. The results suggest that financial market participants do not always incorporate relevant information in their decision-making and that market participants have difficulties in both foreseeing the effect of financial innovations on markets and interpreting these effects.     

Forecasting dynamic return distributions based on ordered binary choice

We present a simple approach to the forecasting of conditional probability distributions of asset returns. We work with a parsimonious specification of ordered binary choice regressions that imposes a connection on sign predictability across different quantiles. The model forecasts the future conditional probability distributions of returns quite precisely when using a past indicator and a past volatility proxy as predictors. The direct benefits of the model are revealed in an empirical application to the 29 most liquid U.S. stocks. The forecast probability distribution is translated to significant economic gains in a simple trading strategy. Our approach can also be useful in many other applications in which conditional distribution forecasts are desired.     

‘Market failure’ arguments are a poor guide to policy

‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.     

一种高能效低时延的LLN路由修复算法

由于低功耗有损网络(LLN)中无线链路的不稳定性和有损性，外部环境的干扰极易导致网络出现故障，从而严重影响网络性能，而LLN网络中现有路由修复算法存在控制开销冗余和修复时延较大等问题。为此，提出了一种高能效低时延的LLN路由修复算法(EELDR-RPL)。该算法通过采用“零额外控制开销通告链路故障及邻居节点信息”机制，使得链路故障节点的子节点能够及时获知链路故障以及链路故障节点的邻居情况；通过采用“自适应调整节点网络深度值”机制，使得链路故障节点能够快速地重新接入网络；通过采用“链路故障节点子节点自适应切换”机制，能够达到优化网络拓扑的目的。仿真结果表明，与现有路由修复算法相比，EELDR-RPL算法能够有效地降低路由修复时延和减少控制开销。     

机载VHF通信电台闪电间接效应试验与失效分析

以某型甚高频（VHF）通信电台为试验对象开展了闪电间接效应试验及失效分析。试验结果表明，通信电台的音频响应、谐波失真、发射功率、频率稳定度和调制深度对闪电电磁脉冲的敏感性较低，而接收灵敏度较为敏感，接收灵敏度的显著退化可作为VHF通信电台在闪电作用下发生失效的典型判据之一，VHF通信电台接收功能较发射功能更容易受到闪电影响。设备失效分析表明，闪电作用下VHF通信电台发生失效的主要机理为射频前端低噪声放大器失效和射频前端滤波器对地电感器与电容器熔融烧毁。