新基建发展对产业升级的影响机制研究

新基建作为现代化基础设施体系的重要组成部分，已经成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。基于2015—2021年中国71个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验新基建发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：新基建发展能促进产业高级化水平，改善不合理的产业结构状态，提升产业合理化水平；新基建通过发展物联网和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；新基建对产业结构水平的影响受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，新基建对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；新基建发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和大城市地区的作用效果更为明显。     

Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

西藏城乡居民家庭养老现状与趋向分析

在西藏,家庭曾是老年人养老的基本依赖。然而,随着经济社会条件的变化和人口流动,老年人的生存状况与过去大不相同。传统的家庭养老功能面临着新的挑战,主要表现如家庭结构逐渐趋向小型化、子女数量减少而使家庭供养负担加重、老龄化导致家庭养老功能弱化。面对这些新的挑战,西藏城乡居民的养老出现新趋向,如自我养老观念提高、女儿养老地位加强以及社会化养老等。     

Enhanced Special Drawing Rights: How China Could Contribute to a Reformed International Monetary Architecture

Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the world has operated on a de facto system of free‐floating exchange rates, with the US dollar as the dominant international currency. The system, characterized by large pro‐cyclical capital flows and chronic imbalances, is inherently unstable, and has contributed to repeated crises, recessions and geopolitical tensions. One potentially “least‐difficult” line of reform would be to allow the evolution of a multi‐currency system, underpinned by an expanded role for Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Attempts to promote wider use of the SDR have foundered on the liquidity premium. However, for Chinese corporations and institutions, at present restricted in their capital account activities, the SDR liquidity premium would appear less daunting. The Chinese authorities could provide policy encouragement for the use of SDRs by their institutions. This initiative, supported by China's Special Administrative Region Hong Kong, would kick‐start an international SDR ecosystem, and encourage even broader use of SDRs, to the benefit of international monetary stability.     

Factors driving embodied carbon in international trade: a multiregional input–output gravity model

ABSTRACT

Concerns about the effects and consequences of climate change have notably increased in recent decades. Despite large advances in the understanding of this phenomenon, further research into the determinants of gas emissions is necessary, to shed light on the responsibilities of producers and consumers, and their potential contribution to mitigation strategies. This paper studies the trajectories and determinants of carbon embodied in world trade during a period of 15 years. Our methodology relies on a multiregional input–output model, environmentally extended. Drawing on data from the World Input–Output Database, we estimate embodied emissions in bilateral flows. Then, we assess the determinants of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade, combining input–output modelling with trade gravity panel data analysis. This paper offers a methodological approach that explains and quantifies the underlying factors of carbon trade, integrating the production and consumption perspectives and considering the geographical, structural and institutional context of countries.     

Advance selling of new products to strategic consumers on flash sale platforms*

Flash sale (FS) is a new business model that offers discounted products in limited numbers over a short period. In this paper we discuss the impact of strategic consumers on advance selling (AS) of new products on FS platforms. We first study the impact of strategic consumers on competing retailers adopting AS to sell a homogeneous new product. And find that the retailers’ AS profits and inventory quantities decrease with the strategic customers’ valuation and valuation decreasing rate. Then we analyse whether FS can mitigate the impact of strategic customers on retailers adopting AS for new products. We consider a newsvendor model involving only one retailer adopting AS to sell a new product. We derive the results by comparing this model with two counterpart models, namely the classical newsvendor model with no strategic customers and a newsvendor model with strategic customers where the retailer does not use FS under AS.     

IFRS adoption,reporting incentives and financial reporting quality in private firms

This study examines financial reporting quality (FRQ) effects around voluntary International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoptions by German private firms across two important dimensions, earnings quality and disclosure practices. To capture differences in the motivations for IFRS adoptions, we identify four different types of IFRS adopting firms based on a comprehensive set of firm characteristics. We observe earnings quality improvements around IFRS adoptions primarily for one type of firm, which is young, fast growing and seeking access to public equity markets. Using a matched sample of private German GAAP and IFRS reporting firms, we find some evidence suggesting that IFRS also contribute to higher earnings quality. Recognizing that our earnings quality metrics are only incomplete measures of FRQ, we also compare the disclosure practices of IFRS and German GAAP firms. We find that all IFRS firm types disclose significantly more information in their financial reports and show a higher propensity to publish their financial reports voluntarily on the corporate website. Our findings indicate that failure to identify earnings quality changes around IFRS adoption cannot be automatically interpreted as IFRS adoption having no effect on the FRQ of (private) firms. Collectively, our results suggest that both incentives and accounting standards shape private firms’ FRQ.     

在学懂弄通做实党的十九大精神上下功夫扎实推进水利供给侧结构性改革

从适应世界供给体系加快调整优化、解决我国新时代主要矛盾和开创中国特色水利现代化新局面等3个方面分析了新时代深化供给侧结构性改革的新形势;从供给质量、供给效率和发展动力等角度提出了新时代水利供给侧结构性改革的主攻方向;从不断健全水利基础设施网络、积极实施国家节水行动、全面推行河长制、大力推进水生态文明建设、深化重点领域改革、依法治水和科技兴水等6个方面提出了全面落实新时代水利供给侧结构性改革的新任务。     

总结克服“贫困陷阱”经验开启新时代现代化新征程——学习党的十九大报告关于新发展理念重要方略的体会

中国特色社会主义的伟大实践使我国告别了贫困，实现了从站起来到富起来的飞跃，坚持走中国特色社会主义道路，坚持贯彻党的基本理论、基本路线、基本方略，坚持“五位一体”总体布局，坚持“四个全面”战略布局，贯彻新发展理念，建设现代化经济体系，一定能够使我们迈过“中等收入陷阱”，实现两个百年的发展目标，进一步提升“四个自信”，为解决人类问题进一步贡献中国智慧和中国方案。