人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

The impacts of export competition on international technology flows

Knowledge flow is a key to building technological capabilities. This article investigates how competition in international trade affects knowledge flow between countries using patent data and trade data for analysis. The main finding is that export competition in the third market (in our study, the US market) seems to have a positive impact on the flow of knowledge. The findings from this study contribute to the debate on ‘learning-by-exporting’.     

基于价值流图析的生产线连续流创建

针对M企业A生产线在制品积压、交付周期长等问题，通过现状价值流图分析其原因，提出在考虑改善效益大于投入成本的条件下，选择合适的自动化水平，以克服物料供应不及时、工艺特性等制约因素。从工艺流程、布局、工装等方面进行改善并绘制未来价值流图，创建生产线连续流。生产线连续流创建后，生产周期缩短了13天、搬运距离减少41m、车间面积节省约168m2、作业人数减少6人，为企业降本增效打下了坚实基础。     

中国企业跨国并购的动因--基于制度分析的视角

过去几十年来，国际生产的增长主要是通过跨国并购的模式实现。不过以前的研究主要集中在运用行业和企业层面的因素来探讨FDI的进入模式。邓宁(2009)强调宏观经济变量可以解释FDI，并呼吁进行更多的研究，以提高我们对宏观经济变量影响重要性的认识。在前期研究的基础上，文章采用2006-2012年6534起中国企业并购交易作为样本，分析中国企业跨国并购交易的决定因素。借鉴诺思的制度理论框架，探讨中国和东道国的正式制度与非正式制度对中国企业发起跨国并购可能性的影响。文章研究的重点在于国家宏观经济和投资者保护状况对中国企业进行跨国并购交易的可能性的影响。通过单因素分析和logistic回归分析发现，中国宏观经济的发展和目标企业所处的商业环境越好，越会促进中国企业跨国并购的可能性。实证结果还显示中国对投资者保护强度越大，中国企业进行跨国并购的可能性更小。     

Managerial Overconfidence,Self-Attribution Bias,and Downwardly Sticky Investment: Evidence from Korea

The extant literature on behavioral corporate finance has explored the effects of overconfidence on investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICS) to explain overinvestment, yet it has overlooked the asymmetric behavior of investments in relation to changes in cash flow levels. This study examines whether investments behave asymmetrically responding to changes in cash flows and, if so, how managerial overconfidence affects asymmetric ICS. Using a sample of KOSPI and KOSDAQ firms in Korea, we find the incidence of downwardly sticky ICS in unconstrained firms. We then find that overconfident managers encourage ICS to be stickier than their rational peers do in unconstrained firms. Finally, we find that managerial overconfidence intensified by self-attribution bias induces ICS to get even stickier, suggesting more explicit evidence of corporate investment distortions. The results of alternative tests using the asymmetric models of Homburg and Nasev (2008) are qualitatively consistent with prior results. Overall, our findings imply a higher incidence of excessive investment commitments driven by overconfident managers.     

Job reallocation in Korean manufacturing: 1984–2014

This paper investigates the patterns of job reallocation in Korean manufacturing during the period 1984–2014. Utilizing establishment-level data from the Mining and Manufacturing Survey, we construct job flow measures and document the trend of job reallocation and test its efficiency. We first find that the pace of job reallocation has diminished since the Asian Financial Crisis. Although jobs were reallocated from less productive to more productive establishments overall, we find that the productivity-enhancing effect has also diminished over time. Although recessions are known to be periods of intense reallocation and restructuring, job reallocation was not particularly more efficient during recessions in Korea. It even decreased during the Great Recession of 2008 because the exit probability of low-TFP establishments was reduced.     

A train of thought in product experientiality: Working memory,distraction, and inconsistencies in cue order effects

The sequence of informational cues and the level of distraction have an impact on the judgment of a product’s quality and preference. Two quasi-experimental studies (N_total = 340) investigate the influence of the force behind the processing of these cues – working memory (WM). Previous research found that, in the presence of a distractor, high WM individuals are more able to recall the initial cue, and thus derive their product judgment from the initial strong cue. Study 1 contradicts these findings and raises important methodological questions regarding the conceptualization of strong and weak cues. Specifically, commonly accepted strong cues (e.g., product reputation) might not influence consumers as expected. Additionally, in a sequence of product evaluation with high vs. low degree of experientiality, study 2 reveals that consumers tend to show a primacy effect that is stronger for higher levels of WM capacity. Moreover, in a sequence of assessing low vs. high degree of experientiality products, consumers reveal stronger recency effects, thus showing that WM reinforces this recency effect. Our findings have important implications for marketers by suggesting that consumers with high WMC are more able to process complex stimuli and retrieve previously presented information on a product quality. These consumers also have a higher tendency to retrieve more information from product scenarios with a high degree of experientiality.     

Size and information revelation in securities trading

We examine differences in information content between order submission sizes and trade sizes by U.S. equity traders. Increasing (decreasing) order submission (trade) size is reflective of information. The result suggests that better-informed traders want to trade in a large size, but that they engage in stealth trading practices or break larger orders into smaller sizes in order to conceal information. While prior studies tend to narrowly focus on trade executions at the market-centre level, our findings indicate that order submission size varies significantly from trade size and that both sizes are informative about future prices, albeit in an inverse manner.     

Collaborative delay management towards demand-capacity balancing within User Driven Prioritisation Process

The concept of User Driven Prioritisation Process (UDPP) was introduced to give Airspace Users (AUs) more flexibility under demand-capacity imbalance. This paper presents two UDPP-DCB models, built on the UDPP principle, using the Selective Flight Protection (SFP) approach to minimize the total delay cost. AUs are enabled to adapt their operations in a more cost-efficient way in the presence of capacity constraints in airspace, optimizing their flights to keep the priorities track. Then, ATFM integrates the AUs’ decision to reassign the time slots and the preferred rerouting trajectories. Results suggest that the delay cost for AUs can be largely reduced through applying the UDPP-DCB models proposed in this paper, while allowing rerouting proves effective in reducing the system delay cost.