实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence

The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position.     

水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测

近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。     

空间目标的联合矩阵束极点估计

极点作为谐振区雷达目标的最主要电磁特性，具有很大的空间目标识别前景。但是在使用频域观测数据提取目标极点时，存在虚假极点和估计精度问题。针对上述问题，首先通过加窗和截断改进了后时响应信号的获取流程，抑制了虚假极点影响；然后采用最小描述长度法（MDL）估计极点个数，避免了定阶错误引起的虚假极点；最后采用联合矩阵束法估计极点，有效减少了单角度数据估计极点时存在的遗漏极点和虚假极点问题。FEKO软件验证表明，所提算法具有更高的精度和抗噪能力。     

Is DNA fingerprinting the gold standard for estimation of adoption and impacts of improved lentil varieties?

In the early 1980s, disease susceptibility in short-season lentil landraces began to limit productivity in areas where relay cropping took place in Bangladesh. Since then, several improved high-yielding lentil varieties, which are resistant to rust and blight and suitable in the relay cropping system, have been released jointly by national and international research centers. This study used three methods, namely a panel of experts, a survey of 1000 households where the respondents named the variety they used, and DNA fingerprinting of seed samples collected from all lentil plots cultivated by survey households to estimate adoption. Double hurdle and instrumental variables regression methods were applied to the household survey and DNA fingerprinting data to identify determinants of adoption and measure their impacts. Of particular interest was whether estimates of adoption, determinants of adoption and impacts varied by method of variety identification. Results showed that the expert panel overestimated the adoption of more recent varieties while about 89% of the farmer-reported varieties were accurate, as verified by DNA fingerprinting. DNA fingerprinting appears to have little advantage for estimating the level of adoption in this case, where few varieties of lentils are found, local variety names do not exist, and most seed is obtained through a formal system. However, even under these conditions, determinants of adoption vary by identification method, and use of farmer-reported information on the variety can lead to erroneous conclusions about determinants of adoption. Because recent breeding efforts have focused on taste and cooking considerations, yield impacts were not significantly different from zero.     

Some Variants of Constrained Estimation in Finite Population Sampling

This is a review article that unifies several important examples using constrained optimisation techniques. The basic tools are three simple mathematical optimisation results subject to certain constraints. Applications include calibration, benchmarking in small area estimation and imputation. A final illustration is constrained optimisation under a general divergence loss.     

多波束移动卫星系统的自适应开环预编码方法

对于卫星移动通信系统，由于卫星与地面终端之间的相对运动以及星地间传输延迟，传统的基于理想信道信息的预编码方法是不适用的。针对这一问题，提出了一种基于开环信道估计的预编码方法。卫星端利用开环获取的部分信道信息实现多波束联合预编码，并导出了系统传输速率的闭合解析表达式。此外，为了克服强干扰环境下多波束预编码系统性能恶化问题，提出了一种自适应预编码传输方法。卫星发射机依据开环获得的慢时变用户位置信道信息和信道统计量信息，自适应地选择预编码方法或传统频率复用方法，实现最优的系统性能。理论分析和仿真结果表明，与传统的干扰抑制方法相比，所提方法能实现更优的系统性能，同时也克服了传统预编码方法的局限性。     

非局部群稀疏表示的图像去噪模型

针对图像的非局部稀疏表示忽略图像中结构相似信息的缺点，将群稀疏表示引入到图像的最优滤波中，提出了一种有效去除图像高斯噪声的非局部群稀疏表示模型。该模型首先选择图像非局部相似块构建相似矩阵，在群稀疏限制下对相似矩阵进行正交分解得到正交矩阵；在已知噪声服从高斯分布的情况下，再通过求得的正交矩阵结合贝叶斯最小均方误差准则实现对特征矩阵的最优估计；最后通过正交矩阵与特征矩阵重构去噪后的图像。实验对比证明，所提的非局部群稀疏表示的图像去噪模型在去除噪声的同时更好地保留了图像的结构信息，获得了更好的主客观评价指标，去噪的峰值信噪比提高1 dB以上。     

一种混合多边缘型LDPC码密度进化算法

在二进制输入加性高斯白噪声信道下，研究了基于多边缘型低密度奇偶校验码（Multi-edge Low Density Parity Check，MET-LDPC）的密度进化算法。针对高斯近似算法在前期迭代中的不准确问题，提出了一种改进算法。在分析MET-LDPC码的密度进化的基础上，将全密度进化与高斯近似算法结合，通过设置切换限制条件，弥补早期迭代的不准确，提高编码阈值估计的准确性。仿真结果表明,与MET-LDPC全密度进化算法相比，所提算法可以有效提高编码阈值估计的准确性，对LDPC编码的设计有一定的参考价值。