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1.
Predicting consumption behavior is very important for adjusting supplier production plans and enterprise marketing activities. Conventional statistical methods are unable to accurately predict green consumption behavior because it is characterized by multivariate nonlinear interactions. The paper proposes an optimized fruit fly algorithm (FOA) and extreme learning machine (ELM) model for consumption behavior prediction. First, to address the problem of uneven search direction of FOA leading to insufficient search ability and low efficiency, the paper proposes a sector search mechanism instead of a random search mechanism to improve the global search ability and convergence speed of FOA. Second, to address the issue that the initial weights and hidden layer bias values of the ELM are randomly generated, which affects the learning efficiency and generalization of the ELM, the paper uses an improved FOA to optimize the weights and bias values of ELM for improving the prediction accuracy. Taking the green vegetable consumption behavior of Beijing residents as an example, the results show the optimization of the initial weight and threshold of ELM by the GA, PSO, FOA, and SFOA, the prediction accuracy of the GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, FOA-ELM, and SFOA-ELM models all surpass those of ELM. Compared with BPNN, GRNN, ELM, GA-ELM, PSO-ELM, and FOA-ELM models, the RMSE value of SFOA-ELM was decreased by 9.45%, 8.40%, 11.89%, 5.84%, 2.22%, and 2.69%, respectively. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of the SFOA-ELM model in green consumption behavior prediction and provide new ideas for the accurate prediction of consumption behaviors of other green products with similar characteristics. 相似文献
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[目的]通过充分发挥移动互联时代消费者对于价值链、创新链、产业链构建的作用,实现价值共创视角下乡村旅游价值链的重构,解决乡村旅游产业中消费者需求和产业供给不平衡不充分之间的矛盾,推动乡村旅游高效、有序、协调、综合发展。[方法]基于价值共创理论,通过文献研究法和系统论方法,探索性重构乡村旅游价值链。[结果](1)价值共创引导下的乡村旅游价值链是由基本价值活动、辅助价值活动和价值共创活动共同组成,通过虚拟价值链和传统价值链的互动与融合,实现乡村旅游价值链的新价值创造。(2)价值共创活动是以虚拟价值链为基本特征,以“产消者”创新社区为表现形式,依托移动互联网时代的先进技术,创新性赋予旅游者产品生产者和旅游消费者的“产消者”双重属性,通过将消费者从传统价值链的幕后拉向幕前,实现乡村旅游价值链重构和价值增值。[结论]价值共创引导的乡村旅游价值链需要依托平台思维、共享思维和创新思维进行建设,以消费者需求为导向形成的价值链的开放和互动对于实现乡村旅游供给侧结构性改革具有重大意义。 相似文献
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张阐军 《中国农业资源与区划》2020,41(1):98-104
[目的]利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程,以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络,以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象,建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式,利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。[结果]在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%,决定了其净风险阈α0(i)、β0(i),相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标,对进程风险传导感染率x1(i)和恢复率x2(i)起主导作用。[结论]近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性,在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态(S)、感染传播状态(I)管控能力,能有效降低波动幅度。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Forecasting》2021,37(4):1399-1425
Dynamic factor models have been the main “big data” tool used by empirical macroeconomists during the last 30 years. In this context, Kalman filter and smoothing (KFS) procedures can cope with missing data, mixed frequency data, time-varying parameters, non-linearities, non-stationarity, and many other characteristics often observed in real systems of economic variables. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a comprehensive updated summary of the literature on latent common factors extracted using KFS procedures in the context of dynamic factor models, pointing out their potential limitations. Signal extraction and parameter estimation issues are separately analyzed. Identification issues are also tackled in both stationary and non-stationary models. Finally, empirical applications are surveyed in both cases. This survey is relevant to researchers and practitioners interested not only in the theory of KFS procedures for factor extraction in dynamic factor models but also in their empirical application in macroeconomics and finance. 相似文献
6.
维护方式选择是维护管理中的重要工作之一,合理的维护方式既能达到保障设备的稳定运行,又能同时兼顾其它各个方面的要求。由于对维护方式的评价涉及多个部门、人员和属性,有些指标只是一个模糊的概念,因而采用模糊多属性群决策的方法对维护方式进行优先抉择。本文结合A公司的设备维护方式选择问题,尝试使用模糊多属性群决策折衷算法求解最佳的维护方式。 相似文献
7.
《Socio》2019
We study a location-allocation-routing problem for distribution of the injured in a disaster response scenario, considering a three-type transportation network with separate links. A circle-based approach to estimate the impacts of the disaster is presented. After formulating relations for computing the percentage of the injured, the destruction percentage and the damage-dependent travel times, the problem is formulated as an integer nonlinear program. We utilize a genetic algorithm and a discrete version of the imperialist competitive algorithm for solving large problems. An empirical study focused on earthquakes in Tabriz, Iran, illustrates applicability of the proposed model and performance of the proposed algorithms. 相似文献
8.
针对脉冲噪声下恒模算法(Constant Modulus Algorithm,CMA)失败的问题,通过分析脉冲噪声的影响,提出了一种基于最小均方(Least Mean Square,LMS)准则的对数型恒模算法(Logarithmic-type CMA,LT-CMA)。LT-CMA利用对数函数的非线性变换特性自适应地抑制强脉冲噪声对误差函数的影响,并且利用l2-范数进行信号归一化处理以增强算法的稳健性。仿真结果表明,所提出的LT-CMA可以适应于高斯噪声环境和脉冲噪声环境;与经典自适应均衡算法相比,在收敛速度和稳健性两方面上,所提出的LT-CMA都有显著的提升。 相似文献
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10.
We first employ β-conditional convergence and log t regression tests based on nonlinear time-varying factor model and club clustering algorithm to analyze the convergence characteristics of the development level of Internet finance in 335 prefecture-level cities in China. The result of log t regression test illustrates that there is no convergence as a whole in the development level of China's Internet finance. However, seven convergence clubs and a divergent group have been formed, and the development level and growth rate of Internet finance among these convergence clubs have shown obvious differences. Moreover, we also employ the Ordered Probit to explore the formation mechanism of the convergence clubs. The results reveal that the regions with a higher level of economic development, traditional financial development, economic openness and Internet development are more inclined to converge in a club with a higher Internet finance development level. Alternatively, the regions that are interfered with more by the government or that have a lower degree of marketization, tend to converge in a club with a lower level. Finally, according to the conclusions, we propose corresponding policy recommendations for promoting the regional coordinated development of China's Internet finance. 相似文献