Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model

Donald Trump’s presidential campaign contains several trade protectionism plans. This paper aims to analyze possible global impact of United States’ plan to impose import tariff increase against China. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulations present possible short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing-only protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. The policy might lead to GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare decline in United States and China; and an increase in trade balance for United States. Trade diversion pattern is observed in the simulation results, predicting shrinking bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export toward their third trading partners.     

Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Political economy of virtue: civil economy,happiness and public trust in the thought of Antonio Genovesi

Abstract

Amid the growing literature in English on the work of the Neapolitan political economist Antonio Genovesi (1713–1769), this paper focuses on his conception of civil economy (economia civile) as a theory of government. By contrast with existing interpretations, the argument is that for Genovesi virtue is a significant ordering device of the polity: virtue mediates between passions and reason, and the human capacity for virtue helps individuals better to realise their different talents. This, in turn, means that virtue is central to the division of labour and the right proportions between different activities, including the balance between consumption and trade.     

中国文化情境下包容性领导对员工敬业度的影响

包容性领导是一种当前备受关注的新型领导方式。本文通过对国内95家企业共665位员工进行问卷调查，主要考察包容性领导对员工敬业度的影响、组织认同的中介作用和平衡互惠的调节作用。研究结果显示：包容性领导显著正向影响员工敬业度；组织认同在包容性领导与员工敬业度之间起到中介作用；平衡互惠在组织认同与员工敬业度之间起到调节作用；并且平衡互惠正向调节组织认同对包容性领导与员工敬业度的中介作用。因此，企业应该采取开放包容的领导方式，通过提高员工的组织认同感，提升员工敬业度。     

Defining and Defending a Progressive Market Square: Bringing Institutionalist Development Discourse in Line with the Reality of Post-Soviet Transition Experiences

Abstract:

This article is a response to two crucial ideas about progressive institutional change: the first is J. Fagg Foster’s principle of “minimal social dislocation,” which asserts that socio-economic changes should be implemented gradually, to avoid unraveling the social fabric of the community; the second is Karl Polanyi’s principles of redistribution of rights and powers by relevant authorities and reciprocity, a symmetrical and highly personalized exchange system, which is likewise a protective mechanism that society employs against anonymity and disintegration brought about by unregulated market. Using lessons learned in the thirty-year transition to market in post-Soviet countries, this article argues that to commence progressive institutional change in the honesty- and transparency-resistant cultures of former Soviet states, impersonal exchange and impartial rule of law must be given far greater weight than personalization of contacts and continuation of cultural traditions.     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

Tariffs and formation of free trade agreements networks

This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) on the basis of country heterogeneity in the tariff level. We demonstrate that a country's unilateral incentive to form an FTA depends on the relative magnitudes of the (negative) market concession effect and the (positive) market expansion effect, both of which are determined by the tariff levels of the two FTA partner countries. Global welfare is maximised when all country pairs form FTAs. Two countries in equilibrium are more likely to form an FTA when their tariff gap is smaller or when their tariff levels are neither very high nor very low. This finding is robust to several extensions of the model. Our preliminary empirical analysis provides some evidence for the finding.     

对优化我国入世后关税保护结构的再思考

在以中间产品为主的国际贸易商品结构中,有效保护率更为准确地反映了关税对国内产业的保护。入世后,在履行世贸组织(WTO)协议的关税调整过程中,我国的关税有效保护结构呈现出优化的倾向,但也存在着一些问题。今后,应根据各产业部门在国际贸易中比较利益优势的动态变化对关税的有效保护结构加以完善,同时防止过度的有效保护,解决资源基础产业的负有效保护问题,避免利用高关税抑制非生活必需消费品的进口而导致的效率损失。     

警惕小标签带来的大麻烦——浅析美国对中国食品营养标签的技术贸易壁垒

中国出口至美国的食品,由于营养标签问题而遭受技术贸易壁垒的比例很高,中国并因此蒙受了巨大的损失。本文从这一实际出发,从美国和中国两方面谈了对该问题的认识,以引起重视。