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1.
We first consider a closed model, where households' time discount depends on externality in consumption. We can prove that there is a unique steady state, which is a saddle point. Then we extend the model to a two‐country world, and derive the condition on the effects of consumption externality under which there is a unique free trade steady state with saddle‐point stability. 相似文献
2.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(4):1485-1498
Wind power forecasts with lead times of up to a few hours are essential to the optimal and economical operation of power systems and markets. Vector autoregression (VAR) is a framework that has been shown to be well suited to predicting for several wind farms simultaneously by considering the spatio-temporal dependencies in their time series. Lasso penalisation yields sparse models and can avoid overfitting the large numbers of coefficients in higher dimensional settings. However, estimation in VAR models usually does not account for changes in the spatio-temporal wind power dynamics that are related to factors such as seasons or wind farm setup changes, for example. This paper tackles this problem by proposing a time-adaptive lasso estimator and an efficient coordinate descent algorithm for updating the VAR model parameters recursively online. The approach shows good abilities to track changes in the multivariate time series dynamics on simulated data. Furthermore, in two case studies it shows clearly better predictive performances than the non-adaptive lasso VAR and univariate autoregression. 相似文献
3.
Online retail's rapid growth in India has triggered both untapped growth opportunities and challenges to maintain consumer “stickiness” to retailer websites. In this context, online customer experience (OCE) has emerged as a strategic differentiator for sustainable competitive edge. However, there is a paucity of empirical research in this field. Therefore, drawing on extant literature and qualitative research of online shoppers, this study proposes an integrated model of OCE with antecedents, components, and outcome variables. Data for this study were collected from Indian online shoppers; the data are empirically tested along with the moderating effect of time availability on OCE. Results of the study largely support the model and contribute to knowledge creation on OCE in the Indian context and to strategy development for online retailers. 相似文献
4.
Jinyang Deng 《旅游业当前问题》2019,22(4):456-475
Two types of attribute importance, stated and derived, have been studied in marketing and tourism studies using Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA). Derived importance is thought to have an advantage over stated importance in reducing survey fatigue and social desirability biases, and thus is more predictable to an outcome variable. Derived importance is also used in a Relevance-Determinance Analysis to determine higher-impact core attributes or in an Importance Grid Analysis to explore the asymmetric relationship between attributes and overall satisfaction. Since derived importance is usually estimated through statistical methods, it is necessary to determine which method is the most appropriate. However, few studies have examined the appropriateness of indirect methods. To fill this research void, this paper judges the appropriateness of three statistical methods (i.e. multiple regression, partial correlation, and simple regression) based on data collected from Savannah, GA, using a new approach by which results of derived importance were compared against diagnostic attributes in the “keep up the good work” quadrant of IPA. Diagnostic attributes are attributes with higher stated importance and higher predictability of an outcome variable. Results show that urban forests and cultural heritage are such attributes, and simple regression is the best to infer attribute importance. 相似文献
5.
Junliang Wang Jungang Yang Xiaoxi Wang Wenjun Zhang 《Enterprise Information Systems》2018,12(6):714-732
Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation. 相似文献
6.
Marco Realdon 《Quantitative Finance》2019,19(2):191-210
Prior literature indicates that quadratic models and the Black–Karasinski model are very promising for CDS pricing. This paper extends these models and the Black [J. Finance 1995, 50, 1371–1376] model for pricing sovereign CDS’s. For all 10 sovereigns in the sample quadratic models best fit CDS spreads in-sample, and a four factor quadratic model can account for the joint effects on CDS spreads of default risk, default loss risk and liquidity risk with no restriction to factors correlation. Liquidity risk appears to affect sovereign CDS spreads. However, quadratic models tend to over-fit some CDS maturities at the expense of other maturities, while the BK model is particularly immune from this tendency. The Black model seems preferable because its out-of-sample performance in the time series dimension is the best. 相似文献
7.
Nicos Zafiris 《Economic Affairs》2018,38(1):74-87
This article surveys ‘creditor‐friendly’ and ‘enterprise‐friendly’ bankruptcy regimes with a focus on the methodology underlying the filter test in distress, as reflected both in its academic treatment and in legal practice. I find that the test exhibits pro‐liquidation bias in designating liquidation of a firm with recovery potential as the Type II error, and in underplaying the benefits of a possible turnaround. Further influences militating against continuation include the power conferred on creditors through the balance sheet criterion and the undervaluation of intangible assets. I make the case for reversing such biases to establish a presumption in favour of continuation. 相似文献
8.
Trends in master of business administration (MBA) education are favoring coursework offerings in time-compressed environments but without careful examination of learning implications. The academic literature is weak in this area, so the authors conducted a study of 558 MBA students using a behaviorally based pedagogy in management. In contrast to previous research, the authors developed arguments supporting time compression assuming certain boundary conditions. They found that students showed better behavioral learning outcomes in a shortened, 4.5-week semester versus a full 14-week semester. The authors conclude with implications for theory and practice. 相似文献
9.
Korhan Gokmenoglu Dervis Kirikkaleli 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2019,28(6):649-667
This study aims to explore the causal relationship between economic risk and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows for the case of Turkey. With the aim of establishing robust findings for the research in mind, both traditional and modern causality techniques are utilized; time domain Granger (1969, “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods.” Econometrica 37: 424–438.), Toda and Yamamoto (1995, “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes.” Journal of Econometrics 66 (1–2): 225–250.), Fourier Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain Breitung and Candelon (2006, “Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach.” Journal of Econometrics 132 (2): 363–378.) spectral causality test. Our empirical findings reveal that; economic risk changes in Turkey significantly lead to changes in FDI inflows. However, there is no evidence of causality running from FDI to economic risk. The findings imply that economic risk is an essential determinant of FDI inflows in Turkey. Our findings are compatible with historical macroeconomic developments in Turkey and imply important policy implications. The results of this study can be generalized for other emerging economies that have similar macroeconomic environments, in order to create useful policy implications regarding FDI inflow. 相似文献
10.
Chunliang Zhang 《Technology Analysis & Strategic Management》2018,30(5):556-568
The projection on Chinese increasing end-of-life vehicle (ELV) volumes indicates that the volume in 2020 will be about threefold that in 2015. The issue of scrapping vehicle upsurge relative to capacity crunches and environmental impacts perplexes Chinese dismantlers and it is intractable and urgent to choose an appropriate dismantling mode. The purpose of this study is to prioritise four potential dismantling modes and provide decision-making reference for dismantlers with a view to such criteria as environmentally sustainable considering constraints involving economy, technique, ecology and flexibility over changing condition. The conducted evaluation by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology takes sensitive and problematic aspects into account through questionnaires. The whole evaluation process supported by expert preferences, provides a simple and intuitive knowledge to construct arguments for ELV decision-making process. Results show that disassembly line involves the highest global weight of 0.363 and is concluded to be the best compromised ecological alternative. 相似文献