进口贸易视域下国际粮价对国内粮价的传导路径--来自玉米和大豆的证据

基于玉米和大豆等粮食国际、国内价格历史数据,运用协整及误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等方法,揭示国际粮价对国内粮价的传导作用及影响路径。理论分析表明,国际粮价通过进口直接路径、进口产品成本路径和进口替代路径等三个子路径传导至国内粮价。实证检验发现,国际大豆价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导均比较充分,即国际大豆价格会影响大豆进口价格,进而影响国内大豆价格,最终影响国内豆油价格;国际玉米价格进口直接路径和进口产品成本路径传导则不充分,国际玉米价格会影响玉米进口价格,但是对国内玉米价格和国内玉米淀粉价格影响程度较低;而在进口替代路径中,玉米和大豆的国际价格传导均不充分。我国应继续推进以提质增效为目标的农业供给侧结构性改革,加大粮食生产科技投入力度,调动农民种粮积极性,集中力量提高粮食供给质量和效率;坚持粮食进口仅为调剂国内供求余缺的方针,把握粮食安全的主动权;建立健全粮食市场的价格调控体系及风险防控体系,规避国际粮食市场剧烈波动对国内粮食市场的影响。     

What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†

We investigate the effects of the 2008 New Zealand (NZ)–China free trade agreement (FTA) on exports from NZ to China, and real GDP per capita in NZ using the synthetic control method to estimate the counterfactuals. NZ exports to China were more than 200% higher in 2014 than what they would have had the FTA never been signed. NZ's food and live animals exports to China were more than 180% higher in 2014 than the counterfactual. Our counterfactuals indicate a small but negative effect of the FTA on NZ's real GDP per capita between 2009 and 2012.     

Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe

This article assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 point to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points.     

Impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure

Structural changes, i.e. long-run changes in the agriculture-manufacturing-services-structure, are a key property of growth and development processes with massive impacts on economy and society and are part of actual debates regarding policy in developing and developed economies. While traditional literature has attempted to explain structural changes by using autarkic models, recent literature has emphasised the importance of deriving theories of structural change using open economy settings. We elaborate on the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure. In particular, we study how import of intermediate products, which is increasingly feasible due to improvements in transport technology and political integration, affects sector structure in a multi-sector growth model with capital accumulation. This topic has not been studied in the previous literature on structural change in open economies, despite the fact that intermediate imports and capital accumulation are central aspects of modern developing and developed economies. We show that the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure depend on three factors: productivity gains from trade, specialisation in international trade and development stage. Depending on the constellation of these factors, intermediate trade may accelerate, decelerate or have no effect on structural change. Thus, the effects of intermediate trade may vary strongly across countries.     

Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy

Declining unionization rates and job polarization are two important labor market developments of recent decades. A large body of literature has analyzed these phenomena separately, but little has been done to see whether there is a link between them. We employ a macroeconomic model for a small open economy with a large input–output core to analyze how deunionization may cause job polarization. Our analysis shows that medium-skilled workers are negatively affected by deunionization, mainly as a result of the heterogeneity of the elasticities of substitution between different types of labor. While the elasticities of substitution between high- and medium-skilled labor are relatively low, the elasticities of substitution between medium- and low-skilled are relatively high. As a result, when deunionization leads to increased wage dispersion, we find that demand for low-skilled increases at the expense of medium-skilled labor, thus yielding a more polarized labor market.     

Internationalization of services: The case of intra‐multinational enterprise trade

Increased tradability of services, made possible by the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution, has been at the heart of the internationalization of services. Although rapid growth of the services trade between parents of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their overseas subsidiaries has contributed to the internationalization of services, empirical studies examining the determinants of intra‐MNE trade in services are few. This article, using the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) framework, attempts to explain intra‐MNE trade in services. The results provide strong support for the OLI perspective, and posit a complementary relationship between manufacturing foreign direct investment and intra‐MNE services trade. The results also suggest the importance of subsidiaries' absorptive capacity and breadth of global connectedness for intra‐MNE trade.     

上海自贸区跨境服务贸易负面清单制定的法律问题

上海自贸区跨境服务贸易负面清单的制定是落实《全面深化中国(上海)自由贸易试验区改革开放方案》,顺应国际服务贸易规则重构的重要举措之一。国民待遇的例外、市场准入的例外以及当地存在的要求是跨境服务贸易负面清单的涵盖范围;市场准入的例外不仅包括形式上的管理措施,还包括效果上的管理措施;当地存在与商业存在既有联系又有区别;跨境货物贸易与跨境服务贸易之间的界限值得厘清;兜底条款可纳入清单但适用应当谨慎。     

美国需求端产业结构的变化及对中国的启示

对产业结构演化的研究都是从供给端计算的产业结构，本文构造了从需求端计算的产业结构并依此对美国需求端产业结构的演化进行了实证分析。研究表明，当年价所计算的美国需求端三次产业结构的变化小于供给端产业结构的变化；1970年以来美国第二产业的变化差异中近40%可以用外贸因素来解释。进而本文采取不变价计算了美国产业结构的变化，研究表明，自1970年以来按不变价计算的美国需求端的产业结构变化很小，且美国第三产业比例提升中有31%可以用不同产业价格因素变化来解释，44%可以用国际贸易来解释，仅有25%可以用第三产业收入弹性的变化来解释，因而收入弹性不是美国第三产业比例提升的重要原因。美国能够维持经常账户的逆差，将第三产业作为动力产业的根本原因在于美元的霸权地位。相比较而言，中国一直以来处于国际收支“双顺差”的状态，中国的具体国情和国家实力均无法满足大规模输出人民币使之成为其他国家储备货币的条件。     

The effect of diplomatic representation on trade: A panel data analysis

This study addresses current gaps in the empirical literature regarding the effect of diplomatic representation on trade using a panel data set for 100 countries with 5‐year interval data from 1985 to 2005 and four‐digit level industry data. The results indicate that the effect of diplomatic representation on exports in differentiated goods is positive and significant and larger than on exports in homogeneous goods on average, but not statistically different from it. Furthermore, diplomatic representation only increases trade along the extensive margin and not along the intensive margin. The results indicate that diplomatic representation is effective in performing its function as a network search intermediary and that it is a useful policy tool to alleviate market failure.     

The effect of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of trade

This study examines the impact of immigrants on the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Since trade data contain excessive zero trade flows, we adopt recently suggested Poisson and Gamma pseudo maximum likelihoods. ???Our finding shows that immigrant stock in South Korea has significant effect on both the extensive and intensive margins of South Korean exports. Immigrants’ network seems to decrease variable as well as fixed costs of trade.