气候变化背景下哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力时空特征分析

[目的]研究全球气候变化背景下气候生产潜力的时空分布特征,对于合理利用农业气候资源,促进农业生产力的提高具有重要意义。[方法]选择1901—2000年哈萨克斯坦24个代表气象站点的月平均气温和降水资料,采用Thortwaite Memorial、Miami模型估算气候生产潜力,并运用气候倾向率、M-K检验以及ArcGIS空间插值等方法对气候生产潜力时空分布特征进行分析。[结果](1)1901—2000年哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力总体表现为增长趋势,不同时段气候生产潜力差异明显,相对于其他研究时段(T1,T3),T2(1936—1970年)时段气候生产潜力及增长速率最大,并且水热匹配状况最好;(2)哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力空间分布地域性明显。YP(降水生产潜力)和Y E(蒸散生产潜力)总体表现为自东南向西北递减的趋势,YT(气温生产潜力)表现为自西南向东北递减的趋势,气候生产潜力高值区主要位于天山北麓及东部山区的河谷地带,低值区位于西部和南部荒漠区;(3)气候生产潜力对降水更为敏感,当气温保持不变,降水量增加(减少)10%、20%,YE将增加(减少)9.6%、19.94%。[结论]哈萨克斯坦东部气候生产潜力大于西部,天山北麓及河谷地区气候生产潜力大于平原地区,哈萨克斯坦气候生产潜力主要受降水量的制约,未来“暖干型”变化将会使研究区气候生产潜力下降。为提高农业生产潜力,必须加强对农业基础设施的建设和提高水资源的调配能力。     

The effect of climate change on the fall foliage vacation in China

Fall foliage season has been a favorite time for sightseeing activity for centuries around the world. The dates of fall foliage coloration for Acer mono maxim at two stations (Beijing and Xi'an) with more than 30 years of records were collected. Time-series analysis showed a strong overall delay of the timing of the fall foliage vacation season. The trend for later fall foliage vacation season averaged 4–5 days/decade. Regression analysis revealed that the air temperature in September or October is decisive for the annual timing of the fall foliage vacation season. A warming of 1 °C led to a delayed beginning, best date and the end of fall foliage vacation of 5.3 days, 3.5 days and 3.7 days respectively. The beginning of fall foliage vacation season started to delay in the 1990s. Sudden delay in the best date of fall foliage vacation season of Beijing and Xi'an took place in the early 2000s and 1990s respectively. For the end of fall foliage vacation season, an abrupt delay occurred in the early 2000s. This has implications for tourists and the tourism industry with reference to the timing of trips and their promotion.     

A comparative study of performance appraisals,incentives and rewards practices in domestic and multinational enterprises in the country of Brunei Darussalam

Very little work in the past has focused on the comparative analysis of human resource management (HRM) practices between domestic and multinational enterprises (MNEs). The majority of the work in this area has instead concentrated on comparing the HRM practices utilised by the subsidiaries of MNEs, and has mostly been conducted in the context of developed countries. In this paper, we examine how the HR practices of appraisals, rewards and incentives are offered, explained and monitored in domestic enterprises (DEs) versus MNEs, and how they are similar or different in nature. This paper is based on primary data collected from a cross-section of firms operating in the country of Brunei Darussalam – a context within which no previous work of this nature has been undertaken. An analysis reveals several interesting results: HR practices are more advanced and better structured in MNEs that conduct performance appraisals (PA) more frequently than DEs, and their feedback system is also rapid; incentives and rewards systems in MNEs follow market ethos and principles; the HR directors and employees of MNEs are more receptive to PA than those in DEs whilst, in contrast to DEs, incentives and rewards systems in MNEs follow market ethos and principles. Furthermore, with regard to size, younger firms are more likely to be following market principles in terms of explaining incentives and rewards systems to their employees, whilst older firms claim that working for them carries social and psychological benefits for employees.     

农村金融机构竞争实力模型评价研究：以山东省为例

文章构建了农村金融机构竞争实力综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法、灰色关联分析法对硬实力进行评价,运用层次分析法（AHP）对软实力进行测评,同时结合Kendall协同系数检验,对硬实力和软实力测评结果进行一致性检验,最终得出三类机构的竞争实力综合测评结果。通过全面评价农村金融机构的综合竞争实力,为决策者合理制定竞争力策略提供了参考依据。     

MATLAB概述及在解单调变分不等式中的应用

本文综述了Matlab的基本命令及Matlab的特性,并结合数学实验,说明了Matlab在数学实验中的应用。最后,采用超梯度Mann迭代算法,用Matlab编程计算单调变分不等式问题的解。     

沿海地区高新技术产业评价研究

随着科技的高速发展和世界经济一体化、全球化不断推进,全球范围内国家、地区之间的竞争日益表现为知识生产领域、高新技术产业领域的竞争,高新技术产业在国民经济中所占的比重越来越大,高新技术及其产业已成为未来经济发展的重要推动力量。文章在构建高新技术产业评价的指标体系基础上,运用主成分分析、熵值、灰色关联分析和Kendall检验等方法建立了"三维一体"的联合决策理论测度模型,对我国沿海地区高新技术产业进行了测评和一致性检验,并提出了四条政策建议。     

元谋县干热气候评价及特征分析

[目的]元谋是云南金沙江流域区典型的干热河谷盆地,气候干湿分明、热量充足、光日照丰富,是云南重要的冬春蔬菜种植、出口,热带水果引、试种植和国内知名蔬菜、粮食作物冬季繁制种及科学研究基地。为客观评价元谋县干热气候及变化特征。[方法]选取云南125个县市的气温、降水、日照、相对湿度做气象因子的主成分分析和元谋县近54年来的气温、降水做气候倾向、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波周期分析。[结果](1)元谋是云南省的高热量、强光日照区、最干燥区和光热资源高效利用区,热量因子主成分得分在滇中河谷盆地及以北最高,光日照因子主成分得分居云南省最高,干湿因子主成分得分为云南省最低。(2)年降水量趋势变化不明显-0. 64mm/年,突变发生在1963和2010年,2001年后年降水量减少趋势变化明显,变化周期依次为26年、16年、2—4年。(3)长夏季平均气温有-0. 009℃/年的较明显趋势变化,突变主要发生在20世纪70年代中期前,变化周期依次为25年、17年、4—6年;最冷时段平均最低气温有-0. 036℃/年的明显趋势变化,突变发生在1971年之前,变化周期依次为19年、4—6年; 11—2月(冷时段)时段平均气温变化周期依次为8年、3年; 1991～2010年间,日最低气温低于0℃的日数较前30年增加0. 3d/年、低于4℃的日数增加了0. 4d/年,日最高气温高于38℃的日数减少了3d/年,日平均气温在25～30℃之间的日数减少了2. 5d/年;各统计时段气温在2009年由明显下降转为明显上升。[结论]元谋县空气干燥,光热资源在云南滇中河谷及以北地区最丰富;年降水量、冷时段气温、最低气温和长夏时段气温均呈下降或微降趋势变化,年际间有明显的突变点和变化周期,其中16—19年和4—6年的变化周期均在年降水量和各个统计时段气温的周期变化中均呈现,极端高温日数减少、低温日数增加;受2009—2013年云南持续干旱气候影响,各个统计时段气温均呈现反相变化。     

First passage time for compound Poisson processes with diffusion: ruin theoretical and financial applications

In this paper, we propose to revisit Kendall’s identity (see, e.g. Kendall (1957)) related to the distribution of the first passage time for spectrally negative Lévy processes. We provide an alternative proof to Kendall’s identity for a given class of spectrally negative Lévy processes, namely compound Poisson processes with diffusion, through the application of Lagrange’s expansion theorem. This alternative proof naturally leads to an extension of this well-known identity by further examining the distribution of the number of jumps before the first passage time. In the process, we generalize some results of Gerber (1990 Gerber, H. U. (1990). When does the surplus reach a given target? Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 9, 115–119.  [Google Scholar]) to the class of compound Poisson processes perturbed by diffusion. We show that this main result is particularly relevant to further our understanding of some problems of interest in actuarial science. Among others, we propose to examine the finite-time ruin probability of a dual Poisson risk model with diffusion or equally the distribution of a busy period in a specific fluid flow model. In a second example, we make use of this result to price barrier options issued on an insurer’s stock price.     

上海市居民以房养老意愿研究

养老保障和住房保障是创建和谐社会的两个重要方面。本文将养老保障和住房保障两大民生问题结合在一起研究,试图探索"以房养老"对缓解养老支付压力的作用。以房养老涉及到很多问题,首当其冲的是要掌握究竟有多少人愿意参与。为了成功的在中国开展以房养老,我们以上海市为研究对象,调查了影响"以房养老"意愿的主要因素,通过单因素方差分析和肯德尔秩相合分析显示,年龄、住房占家庭资产的比重、月收入对"以房养老"表现出负相合关系,而健康状况对"以房养老"表现出正相合关系。我们估计如果有20%的较低收入且房屋拥有者参加"以房养老",则上海市的养老支付危机将有明显缓解。     

市域经济发展状况最佳组合评价方法的筛选

在介绍几种组合评价法的基础上,以2005年保定市22个县的经济发展状况为实例,通过对这些组合评价法的事前事后检验,包括肯达尔一致性系数检验和斯皮尔曼等级相关系数检验,筛选出最优组合评价法：平均值法。它在一定程度上克服了采用单一综合评价法的片面性,并且在兼容性方面优于其他的组合评价法,兼容性越强,代表性更高,可靠性更高,以此作为评选最优评价方法的依据。