Rural taxation and government regulation in China

This paper places the problem of Chinese rural taxation in the context of government regulation and seeks to present an integrated theoretical framework of Chinese rural development in the past two decades. Our theoretical framework reconciles the seemingly contradictory facts that the average level of rural taxation relative to rural net income did not increase quickly from 1990, but rural taxation became a very serious problem in this period. Our findings suggest that this is in large part due to increases in rural income disparity from 1990 and uneven tax distribution among different income groups. We argue that differentiated enforcement of government regulations such as grain procurement and birth control play an important role in the rural taxation problem, and more generally, the problem of local government expansion and rising rural income disparity. The empirical findings support our hypotheses.     

论全面推进农村小康社会建设

我国新世纪“全面建设小康社会”的奋斗目标和纲领,是邓小平“小康”思想的进一步丰富和发展。从目前的经济发展和人们生活水平来看,离全面建设小康社会目标最远的主要是农民,全面建设小康社会的重点和难点在农村。在我国农村,全面建设农村小康社会应从政治、经济、文化和可持续发展等方面全面推进。     

Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

Emerging markets, evolving institutions, and the new opportunities for growth in China's rural economy

In this essay, our goal is to assess the state of China's rural economy and examine whether rural China is capable of participating in the sequence of economic events that will lead to modernization. We examine how agricultural productivity has changed, the nature of the shift of labor moving from rural to urban areas, how commodity markets have evolved, and how the rural industrial sector is adjusting the recent reforms. According to our own work and that of others, we show how the rural economy is beginning to be fundamentally transformed and is contributing to China's modernization.     

股份制取代合作制是历史的必然——对中国农村金融制度选择的思考

目前，合作金融在中国遇到了种种困惑，这不是合作金融本身的错。一方面中国从来就没有建立过真正的合作金融；另一方面合作金融与中国当前的经济环境也不相适应。而那种异化了的合作金融既没有存在的必要，也没有存在的可能。股份制取代合作制是一种历史的必然。     

基于我国货物出口轨迹及效应分析的出口贸易战略调整取向

改革开放以来,我国根据各个时期所处国际国内环境的变化,制定了不同的出口贸易发展战略,取得了举世瞩目的成就,从1981年到2005年六个五年计划期间,我国出口额增长了34倍,由世界32位成长为世界第三大贸易国。但根据六个五年计划的出口贸易轨迹来看,还存在一些问题,另外国际国内环境不断变化,需要我们调整贸易战略,以适应不同的环境,完成我国从贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。     

新疆环境产业发展问题探析

我国经济的高速发展给生态环境带来了巨大的负面效应和不利影响,同时也给新疆环境产业提供了发展机遇。本文以可持续发展理念为前提,分析了新疆当前环境产业的现状及面临的挑战,提出了环境产业发展对策。     

我国城乡耐用消费品市场用户构成差异的研究——一个创新扩散的视角

创新扩散理论按照用户采用新产品的时间先后顺序将市场细分为创新者、早期采用者、早期大多数、晚期大多数和落后者五种类型。本文在扩散经典理论和中国市场特征的基础上,提出城镇市场和农村市场耐用消费品用户构成差异的假设。研究结果证实了全部假设:城镇的创新者比例显著高于农村,农村的早期采用者比例显著超过城镇,而各类型采用者的采用持续时间农村全面长于城镇。这些结论为更加深入地了解二元经济结构下中国市场的特征提供了有益启示。     

人居环境科学的人文思考

人居环境 (建筑与城市建设 )科学不能失去人文精神。作者以自己的实践 (北京菊儿胡同等 )说明如何才能在建筑设计和城市规划中发扬民族的文化精神。     

我国城市农民工劳动供给曲线的理论分析和实证检验

从我国存在巨大的区域经济差异出发,如果假定劳动力从落后地区向发达的城市转移,不是决定于两地区的工资之差,而是决定于城市的工资与落后地区劳动力在城市的生存成本和需要其负担的家属在落后地区的生存成本即转移劳动力的基础价值之差,并且假定在城市的劳动力供给市场上,随着工作时间的延长和实际小时工资的降低,存在劳动力的退出,并且退出劳动力减少的劳动供给大于留在劳动力市场中的劳动者增加的劳动量,则城市农民工的劳动供给曲线是一条以落后地区转移劳动力的最低基础价值为起点、向右上方倾斜、其不同阶段存在不同斜率、且斜率随城市劳动力供求状况而变动的曲线.