Potential economic impacts of zero thresholds for unapproved GMOs: The EU case

As the pipeline of new biotech crops has continued to expand, regulatory approvals of such crops across different countries have become less synchronized. As a result, some biotech crops can be cultivated in one or more countries but may not be approved for use in others. Under such circumstances, small amounts of unapproved biotech crops can be found in the food/feed supplies of some countries and under zero threshold policies they must be withdrawn and can lead to market disruptions. In this paper we examine the potential economic implications of regulatory asynchronicity and zero threshold policies for unapproved GMOs using the EU as a case study. To measure the potential economic impacts from possible trade disruptions between the EU and its major suppliers of soybeans, we develop a spatial equilibrium model and examine alternative scenarios where bilateral trade flows are set to zero. From our analysis we find that when asynchronous approvals become a systemic problem leading to trade disruptions with multiple trading partners the impacts can be severe. For instance, we find that if the EU were to stop imports from its three main suppliers the US, Brazil and Argentina, it would pay roughly 220% more for soybeans, 211% more for soybean meal and 202% more for soy oil.     

基于空间信息重构技术的东北三省大豆时空演变研究（1980—2010年）

［目的］东北三省是我国大豆生产的重要基地，也是国家种植结构调整的重点区域。研究分析了1980—2010年东北三省大豆时空演变特征，为合理制定种植结构调整政策、加快推进农业供给侧结构性改革提供科学的空间信息参考。［方法］综合卫星遥感技术和空间信息重构模型优势，基于交叉信息熵方法，构建了作物空间信息重构模型SPAM China，对1980—2010年东北三省大豆种植空间分布、时空演变、重心迁移等进行了研究。［结果］1980—2010年东北三省大豆种植区域小幅增加，大豆种植面积栅格数量从6 703个增加至7 214个，松嫩平原、三江平原以及吉林省中部地区是东北三省的大豆主产区； 种植面积大幅增加，单位栅格面积增加1 000hm2以上的栅格数量增加明显，面积增加区域主要位于北纬47°~50°之间和东经1255°~131°之间； 东北三省大豆种植面积重心分别向东迁移10620km，向北迁移20857km，辽宁省、吉林省大豆种植面积重心南移，黑龙江省基本保持不变。［结论］1980—2010年东北三省大豆种植面积空间分布小幅增加，但时空变化特征显著，种植面积重心向北向东迁移。     

On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports

Due to their high protein content, soybeans are important feedstuffs in the European Union (EU). However, the cultivation of soybeans using genetically modified (GM) varieties in non-EU countries is increasing and the EU authorization of GM products takes longer than in other countries, leading to an asynchronous approval between the EU and non-EU countries that might induce soybean trade disruptions. This paper uses an integrated modelling system to simulate Argentina, Brazil and the United States ending soybean exports to the EU. The impact on world trade and on the EU import prices of soy products is analysed with a computable general equilibrium model. EU soy imports are shown to decline, and the import price of soybeans in the EU increases. The effects on EU agricultural markets are analysed based on a partial equilibrium model. Feed costs in the EU are found to increase with poultry and pork the most affected: production and exports decline and imports increase. However, the effects of a trade ban are found to be less profound than in many other studies due to compensating substitution effects at various market levels: increasing imports from third countries, increasing domestic oilseed production and the use of other protein feeds.     

我国油料进口的Armington弹性估计与进口福利波动分析

近年来,油料成为了我国第一大类的进口农产品,为了衡量油料进口对国内生产和整体福利的影响,本文以大豆和油菜籽为例,选取1991-2005年的时间序列数据,测算了其Armington替代弹性和进口福利波动值。从短期来看,大豆和油菜籽进口对国内生产的冲击不大,进口福利的减少主要是由进口价格上涨引起的;而长期替代弹性则较大,如果不重视发展国内生产,提高国内产品的国际竞争力,掌握进口定价权,进口就会对国内生产造成较大冲击,降低整体福利水平。     

Out‐of‐sample testing price discovery in commodity markets: the case of soybeans

Price discovery, a central function of futures markets, has been usually tested in‐sample by studying the common stochastic trend between spot and futures prices. Instead, to evaluate futures as anticipatory prices, we develop a forecast approach to out‐of‐sample test price discovery in a multivariate framework. We apply it to the soybeans market. Results indicate futures prices as the best available “predictors” of future spot prices, although this finding holds only on average and for certain periods, other models show forecasting gains.     

The effect of the length of soaking time on trypsin inhibitor,crude protein and phosphorus contents of soybeans (Glycine max)

A study to determine the effect of soaking soybeans (Glycine max) at different periods of time on trypsin inhibitor, crude protein and phosphorus contents was carried out. The results showed that the length of soaking period had significant effect (P < 0.05) on trypsin inhibitor and crude protein contents. The activities of the trypsin inhibitor were 10% in roasted soybeans, 27.5% in raw and a range of 26.6% for those soaked in water for 24 h to 17.7% for soybeans soaked for 96 h or more, with a standard error of 6.56 on each of the values. The crude protein contents were 41.58% in raw, 31.43% in roasted and a range of 40.05–30.64% for those soaked in water for 24–120 h. The standard error on each value was 5.09%. On the other hand, length of soaking period had no significant effect on phosphorus content. It can be concluded from this that soaking soybeans in water can effectively remove the anti‐nutritional factors. While roasting is better, the use of fire wood may not be encouraged as it has caused a lot of deforestation with consequent occurrence of floods and hence food shortages. Such a good animal husbandry practice can help to improve the health of animals, which can in turn help to improve the health of the population.