农业生产托管中组织关系演化及动力机制研究

小农户与现代农业发展的有机衔接是当前实施乡村振兴战略的关键措施，农业生产托管正是实现小农户与现代农业有机衔接的最有效途径。探究农业生产托管中组织关系的演化及动力机制可以对农业生产托管有更清晰的认识，更好地推进农业生产托管，为进一步规范农业生产托管提出对策建议。     

“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

我国省域农业隐含碳排放及其驱动因素时空动态分析

[目的]我国区域农业发展模式由于气候、环境的不同存在较大的差异,而目前针对农业隐含碳的时空动态研究较为缺乏,导致对于区域减排目标的设定缺乏全面的考虑,无法实现农业碳减排的效率性和公平性。因此,有必要分析农业隐含碳排放在不同省域的特征并分析其驱动因素,为制定体现地区间公平性且有效率的碳减排政策提供依据。[方法]文章利用2002年、2007年和2012年3年的投入产出表估算我国各省(市、区)农业隐含碳排放量,根据Kaya恒等关系将其分解为经济规模、经济结构、一般农业技术进步和低碳农业技术进步4类影响因素,并利用LMDI分解分析法对这4类影响因素的驱动力进行了分析。[结果]2002—2012年我国大部分地区农业隐含碳排放量呈上升趋势,空间上呈现从西到东、从南到北逐渐增加的分布规律,经济规模效应在各省份均呈正向驱动,且在经济发展较为迅速、经济增长后劲较强的地区驱动效应逐渐增强;经济结构效应在大部分省份呈负向驱动,且在重型工业的聚集区域负向效应逐渐增强;一般农业技术因素正向驱动区域逐渐扩散,且在农业大省正向驱动效应逐渐增强;低碳农业技术进步因素在东部发达地区负向的驱动效应较强,在西部驱动效应较弱。[结论]在未来的农业减排政策制定过程中,需要充分考虑不同地区的经济发展、产业结构、农业生产等特点。     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

江苏省农业绿色发展水平区域差异及趋势分析

［目的］农业绿色发展是保证我国农业可持续发展的有效方式，探究江苏省农业绿色发展水平和地区差异，为我国其他地区农业绿色发展研究提供参考。［方法］文章采用熵权法和层次分析法确定农业绿色发展水平评价指标权重，运用锡尔指数对区域内和区域间农业绿色发展水平差异进行测度。［结果］2012—2017年江苏省农业绿色发展水平有明显提高，绿色供给的得分最高，环境友好和生态制度的得分最低。各市农业绿色发展水平综合指数分析结果表明，苏州农业绿色发展水平最高，南京、无锡次之，连云港、淮安和宿迁农业绿色发展水平较低。锡尔指数分析结果表明江苏省区域内农业绿色发展水平差异都在逐渐缩小。［结论］农产品绿色供给是江苏省农业绿色发展的最大优势，资源节约利用和环境友好发展方面较低，由于经济发展对资源利用强度在持续增加，资源节约利用仍是绿色发展的短板，因此江苏省资源效益利用仍有上升的空间，且区域内发达地区农业绿色发展的带动效应明显。     

农产品供应链重构风险传导SIR建模与仿真研究

[目的]利用动力学SIR模型模拟农产品供应链重构内生风险传导过程,以期在有效把握核心重构风险传导规律基础上为整体管控重构进程风险提出前瞻性思路。[方法]基于农产品供应链重构风险整体构架和重构进程风险传导复杂网络,以湖北省243家大型连锁超市生鲜农产品供应链2007—2017年重构样本数据为研究对象,建立重构进程内生风险传导SIR模型和规划演化模式,利用Matlab软件对模型仿真得到有效管控状态下演化趋势。[结果]在以战术性重构为主导组织结构战略性重构中进程风险传导安全边际X1s超过50%,决定了其净风险阈α0(i)、β0(i),相应的业务单元和功能模块重构进程风险预警和风险恢复能力提高值是主控指标,对进程风险传导感染率x1(i)和恢复率x2(i)起主导作用。[结论]近年来土地流转驱动农产品供应链重构中组织结构重构整体具有战略性,在以战术性重构为主导风险传导管控中重点应加强业务单元和功能模块重构进程在重构易感状态(S)、感染传播状态(I)管控能力,能有效降低波动幅度。     

新农科建设背景下江西高校涉农专业人才培养的思考

新农科建设是新农业新乡村新农民新生态建设的必然要求,顺应了新时代社会的发展规律,致力于培养爱农业、懂技术、善经营的高水平实用技能型卓越农林新人才。"新农科"建设宣言的提出对高等院校涉农专业人才的培养提出了更高的期许和要求。目前江西高校存在涉农专业人才数量紧缺且离农化趋势严重,涉农专业精品课程少、设置不够合理,涉农专业人才培养结构与行业需求脱轨,科研成果转化率不高的问题。本文从新农科建设的角度出发,针对江西高校在涉农专业人才培养过程中出现的问题提出了相应的对策。     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

新中国成立70年农村基本经营制度的历史演进与发展取向——基于农村土地制度和农业经营制度的改革联动视角

研究目的:剖析农村土地制度和农业经营制度的关系,为完善农村基本经营制度提供参考。研究方法:比较分析法、文献研究法。研究结果:新中国成立70年来,农村基本经营制度先后历经新中国成立初期的"农民所有、家庭经营"、改革开放前期的"集体所有、集体经营"到改革开放后期的"集体所有、均田承包、家庭经营",再到现阶段的"集体所有、均田承包和多元经营"4个阶段。在这个过程当中,农村基本经营制度既遵循人口与土地关系、生存与发展关系以及政府与市场关系的大逻辑,又遵循着农村土地制度的"产权逻辑"、农业经营制度的"生产逻辑"等小逻辑。研究结论:为深化农村基本经营制度变革,需加强农村土地制度与农业经营制度联动改革的制度设计,发挥要素、组织和制度的作用,发展多种形式的适度规模经营,实现小农户与现代农业发展的有机衔接。     

Determinants of energy use in the informal food sector

Although enterprises in the informal food sector require energy to transform, cook and process food, energy-use patterns in this sector are not well understood by policymakers and the local-level authorities who regulate their trading activities. This paper reviews relevant literature and presents empirical data collected in Rwanda, Senegal and South Africa on the use of traditional and modern energy sources by informal food sector operators. Our sample includes male- and female-operated enterprises in the urban centres of three African countries where the informal food sector is important, not only for providing the convenience of affordable and readily prepared meals, but also as a source of income for women and men in developing countries. Multiple fuel-use and energy-stacking strategies are common among informal food enterprises and policy needs to acknowledge this if it is to intervene in ways that will benefit both enterprises and regulators.