Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty

This article investigates how uncertainty impacts the effect of monetary policy surprises on stock returns. Using high-frequency US data, we demonstrate that stock markets respond more aggressively to monetary policy surprises during periods of high uncertainty. We also show that uncertainty asymmetrically influences the transmission of positive and negative monetary policy surprises to stock market prices. The amplifying effect of uncertainty is found to be stronger for expansionary shocks than for contractionary shocks. Our robustness analysis confirms that financial uncertainty has a significant role in shaping the influence of monetary policy on the stock market.     

Development built on crony capitalism? The case of Dangote Cement

This paper critiques the emergence of Dangote Cement as the dominant player in cement manufacturing in Nigeria. It argues that the changed economic environment General Obasanjo met when he became president of Nigeria for a second time in 1999 made it difficult for him to continue the nationalisation policies and the expansion of government involvement in several spheres of economic activity that he helped to promote in the 1970s. The realisation that this strategy, which created numerous crony capitalists, was unsustainable resulted in Obasanjo allying with Dangote and promulgating the Backward Integration Programme (BIP) for the local cement industry. This made it possible for Dangote to risk aggressive investment in the capital-intensive cement production business. This strategy achieved public good by rapidly making Nigeria, an oil rent- and import-dependent economy with enormous limestone reserves, self-sufficient in cement production.     

“引洮工程”引发的受水区污染治理研究

[目的]为了解决甘肃中部安定区、陇西县、渭源县、临洮县、榆中县和会宁县的人畜饮水、工业用水、生态用水及农业灌溉用水问题,引洮工程通过九甸峡水利枢纽抬高水位将黄河上游洮河支流水资源引入受水区。在受水区,在调水增加本区供水总量的同时,相应增加了增量水资源使用后带来的废污水,客观上对污染治理工作水平提出了更高要求,轻视排污问题将加剧受水区乃至下游的水系污染程度,影响受水区经济社会的可持续发展。[方法]文章采用文献研究法从理论上探讨了环境容量、排污权及其关系。采用定额计量法计算了调水带来的COD和氨氮增量。[结果]调水使得受水区COD和氨氮每年分别增加6 914. 30t和1 440. 48t。就COD而言,受水区平均排放量占该区环境容量的51. 12%,似有较多的容量结余,但区内排放极不平衡,榆中和会宁已经超排。就氨氮而言,受水区平均排放量将占该区环境容量的151. 55%,总体超排很严重。区内除临洮以外,其余5县区均超排,其中,榆中和会宁超排1倍以上。[结论]排污量是假定增量污水符合二级排放标准的前提下计算的,如果处理率低、排放达标率低,则超排现象会更为严重。对此,要从宏观上进行综合治理,诸如完善政府、社会与市场共同治污机制、排污权配置的过渡性制度安排、污水处理企业改革及引导受水区进行产业结构调整等。     

中国农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩状态：时空特征与影响因素

[目的]明确农药施用与农业经济增长关联状态及其影响因素,为实现"控药减害增收"的目标提供借鉴。[方法]基于2005—2015年数据利用脱钩理论和对数平均分解指数法分解进行分析。[结果]中国农业经济增长伴生大量农药施用,仅少数省域表现出农药施用和农业经济增长扩张绝对脱钩的理想状态,东北西北部分省域农业经济增长则以更大幅度的农药投入增长为代价。中西部地区劳动力规模和技术进步效应是推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东部地区种植规模变化、劳动力规模和技术进步因素均是推动农药施用和农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东北地区仅劳动力规模效应成为推动脱钩的力量。[结论]推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩需要强化农业科技的创新与普及,完善农业生产过程中的技术支撑,推动农业病虫害监测预警,加大对环境友好型低污染农药和肥料的推广度;构建农户施药的多重约束机制,完善农业病虫灾害保险减少农户对生产过程的风险感知,发挥农业合作社对农户施药行为的规制作用,完善产品分级认证和安全准入制度;通过农地合理流转和农业机械化等方式集约利用农业生产资源;因地制宜推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩,结合区域资源优势和农业发展阶段有针对性地设计对策措施。     

信息传播培养理论视域下的农户亲环境行为研究——对甘肃省19个县（区）542农户的调研分析

大众传播媒介及农业信息服务网络通过环保信息传播可在潜移默化中培养农户的亲环境价值观，进而影响农户的亲环境行为。基于信息传播培养理论，整合计划行为理论和“信念—价值—规范”理论构建亲环境行为理论模型，并采用甘肃省19个县（区）542户样本农户的调研数据进行验证，结果显示：环保信息的有效传播可以潜移默化地强化农户的亲环境价值观，农户的亲环境价值观、行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制及责任归属均对其亲环境行为有显著的正向预测作用，农户经营规模和专业化水平对其亲环境行为也有显著正向影响。应提高农户生产经营的规模化和专业化程度，加强对农户亲环境价值观及主体责任认知、亲环境行为知识和技能等方面的教育和培训，并充分发挥农村干部、党员、能人等的带头示范作用，以有效促进农户亲环境行为。     

农业机械化发展及其服务外包的原因分析——源自冀豫鲁3省问卷调查数据的证明

[目的]在统计描述华北平原农民的机械采纳率和机械采纳方式的基础上,分析农民的机械化需求和农机手的机械服务供给行为及其内在逻辑,从理论和实证两个维度对华北平原地区农业机械技术的特殊实现形式——服务外包做出解释。[方法]运用描述性统计分析和成本收益核算等方法,利用冀豫鲁3省779个农户和45个农机手的实地调研数据分别对农业机械化发展的前提条件和实现方式做出解释。[结果]农业劳动力成本上升与农机购置成本下降,共同刺激了农民的机械技术需求,是华北平原农业机械化快速发展的前提条件;持有农业机械的农民基于理性选择而向其他农民提供农机作业服务,是推动华北平原农业机械化以服务形式实现的主要原因。[结论]相关部门应继续探索高效的农机补贴模式,刺激农民的机械技术需求;农业机械支持政策可适当向农机合作社倾斜,提高农机手的组织化程度和服务数量与质量。     

基于生态位理论的浙江省区域农产品质量竞争力评价研究

[目的]把握区域农产品质量竞争力不仅是促进区域农产品富有竞争力的积极方法,也是稳步提升农产品质量安全的重要做法。[方法]文章运用生态位态势理论,构建了以区域为评价主体的农产品质量竞争力评价体系,并从两个层面对浙江省各地级市农产品质量竞争力进行研究。在纵向层面上,测算了各地级市农产品质量竞争力生态位宽度,对各地级市农产品质量竞争力状态进行了评价和排序。在横向层面上,测算了各地级市农产品质量竞争力生态位重叠度,对各地级市农产品质量竞争力的合作程度进行了评价与区分。最后整合运用生态位协同、生态位扩充等理论,提出浙江省各地级市提升农产品质量竞争力发展策略。[结果]通过区域农产品质量竞争力生态位宽度研究发现,杭州和宁波的农产品质量竞争力较强,其生态位宽度分别为0.103 6和0.103 2,而丽水和舟山农产品质量竞争力相对居后,其生态位宽度分别为0.079 0和0.075 6;通过区域农产品质量竞争力生态位重叠度研究发现,可将全省划分为西北平原区域、东南部沿海区域和西南部山地区域等3个区域,各区域内部地级市可通过协同合作提升农产品质量竞争力。[结论]根据各地级市生态位宽度和生态位重叠度的差异,应采取生态位扩充、生态位协同、生态位分离的策略,从而因地制宜提升区域农产品质量竞争力。     

Institutionalism and Fiscal Policy at Midcentury

This article analyzes the career and contributions of Roy Blough (1901–2000) as a case study of Wisconsin institutionalism in government policy-making at midcentury. As a faculty member at Cincinnati, Chicago and Columbia, editor of the National Tax Journal, director of the research division of the U.S. Treasury and member of the Council of Economic Advisors, Blough played a significant role in the development of fiscal policy. The article also considers Blough’s contributions to tax policy and his views on Keynesian public finance. It further identifies the contributions of Wisconsin institutionalism to modern fiscal policy.     

Institutional Economics as Theory of Policy Change: Impact of Past Policy Failures on Present Policy

Social scientists have developed several theories for understanding or evaluating policy change over time. Since all costs or benefits are not internalized owing to positive transaction costs, policymaking is always implemented under cost underestimation conditions and, therefore, is imperfect. I call this trait policy failure in this article. Furthermore, I show that a new framework combining the social costs approach and the legal/economic approach in institutional economics is suitable and can be applied to evaluating how past policy failures affect present policy, providing as an example the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.