应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调*

新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看，应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足，“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下，为了应对疫情冲击，国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制，寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡，加强政策沟通和信息共享，提高新兴市场国家话语权，建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制，在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用，通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。     

湖南省农业生态与农业经济耦合性测度

[目的]考察湖南省近9年来农业生态与农业经济系统耦合发展现状,探究二者发展过程中的规律,以期找出二者协调发展模式,并为湖南省农业生态环境保护、农业经济发展提供决策依据。[方法]运用耦合协调度模型,基于熵权法为各指标进行客观确定权重,结合2007~2015年湖南省农业生态与农业经济发展的相关数据,确定农业生态与农业经济的耦合匹配分析模型,采用熵值赋权法确定各项指标的权重,构建农业生态—农业经济耦合协调评价指标体系。[结果]研究结果表明,2007~2015年湖南省农业生态与农业经济的耦合协调发展基本稳定,耦合度值均在0.9以上,二者呈协调发展趋势。其中,2014年和2015年二者的耦合度较高,分别为0.975 3和0.984 3,说明湖南省在这两年的农业生态与农业经济的协调性好,农业经济与农业生态能够相互有效促进彼此的发展。同时,仍需时刻关注生态环境的承载力,降低对自然资源的无序攫取,实现经济的可持续发展。     

Orchestrating corporate social responsibility in the multinational enterprise

Research Summary: Multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest significant resources in corporate social responsibility (CSR), but their attempts to build a global “social brand” may clash with the execution of operational strategies at a subsidiary level. Using a game-theoretic model, this research addresses the complex interplay of different contingencies that shape the coordination and control challenges facing MNEs when they implement global CSR strategies, including brand spillovers, the risk of public scandals caused by irresponsible behavior, the size of the MNE network, as well as the roles played by nongovernmental organizations and altruistic managers. Challenging the view of CSR as insurance against lapses of responsible conduct, our model shows that investment in social brands helps avoid irresponsible practices across the MNE network, thereby inducing subsidiaries to “walk the talk.” Managerial Summary: Global social brands are increasingly valuable to multinational enterprises (MNEs), which makes the control and coordination of responsible behavior across their network of foreign subsidiaries a relevant managerial challenge. Indeed, lapses of responsible conduct at the subsidiary level often generate reputational damage at the multinational level. This research explores several mechanisms that help MNEs manage this coordination and control challenge. First, it shows under what conditions MNEs can leverage their investments in social brands to induce responsible practices across their global network. Second, it illustrates how MNEs can exploit collaborations with nongovernmental organizations to reduce the costs of coordinating and controlling their subsidiaries. Finally, it identifies conditions under which MNEs benefit from hiring altruistic managers to run their subsidiaries.     

Who benefits from partial tax coordination?

In this paper, we investigate whether partial tax coordination is beneficial to countries within and outside a tax union, in which countries are supposed to compete in taxes and infrastructure. Our results demonstrate that a subgroup of countries agreeing on a common tax rate can harm both member and nonmember states. This is in contrast to the classical findings that partial tax harmonisation is Pareto improving. When a minimum tax rate is imposed within a tax union, we demonstrate that it does not necessarily improve the welfare of the member countries. Moreover, both the high‐tax and low‐tax countries can be worse off. This conclusion is at odds with the classical result that a high‐tax country benefits from the imposition of a lower tax bound.     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响

基于2007-2018年中国A股上市公司数据,本文考察了机构交叉持股对企业价值的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,机构交叉持股显著提高了企业价值,在考虑内生性问题和替换主要变量后结论依然较为稳健。交叉持股机构投资者能够成为更加积极的监督者,主动参与公司治理,缓解代理问题,同时促进同行业企业间产品市场协作,改善企业的产品市场表现,进而提升企业价值。此外,相比其他类型的投资者,长期、独立以及稳定型的交叉持股机构投资者对企业价值的促进作用更显著,进一步印证了监督治理渠道的作用。机构交叉持股推动产品市场协作,主要是通过提高企业创新能力和营业利润率。本文结论证实了机构交叉持股的正向协同效应,对完善中国资本市场制度体系和促进企业可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Workforce diversity and firm performance: Relational coordination as a mediator and structural empowerment and multisource feedback as moderators

Workforce composition in organizations has become increasingly diverse. As an important step in determining how workforce diversity leads to firm performance, we proposed relational coordination as a mediator through which diversity in age and education indirectly affects firm performance. We also highlighted two human resource management practices (structural empowerment and multisource feedback) as critical contingencies that moderate the effects of workforce diversity on relational coordination and firm performance. We conducted hierarchical multiple regression on multisource data (including responses from senior directors, department directors, managers, and employees, as well as financial performance) from 189 Korean firms in the manufacturing sector, which yielded support for our hypotheses. These findings offer novel theoretical and practical insights into the effective management of workforce diversity.     

旅游产业与农村可持续生计耦合的空间格局及驱动机制——以张家界为例

通过构建乡村旅游与农村可持续生计系统指标体系,运用变异系数和耦合协调度模型对2005—2018年张家界乡村旅游与农村可持续生计的耦合度和协调度进行测算,分析耦合协调度的空间格局,并运用地理探测器方法对其驱动机制进行分析。研究表明:①2005—2018年耦合协调度保持连续上升的趋势;②乡村旅游发展初期呈现东部高西部低的分布格局,中期呈现东南部滞后于西部的分布格局,但最终张家界整个区县达到优质协调;③耦合协调度空间分异的主要影响因素有人均GDP、旅游收入占GDP比重、农业机械化水平和人均财政收入等,且具有明显的时间异质性特征。     

铁路集装箱运输与社会经济协同发展关系分析

针对我国铁路集装箱运输和社会经济发展的关系,选取了能够表征两者发展的时间序列变量,运用协同学理论,构建了铁路集装箱运输和社会经济发展关系的协同度量化模型,对近18年来两者的综合发展水平、协调度及协同度变化进行了分析。结果表明该模型能客观全面地评价铁路集装箱运输和社会经济耦合因素协同发展水平和状态,表明铁路集装箱运输发展和社会经济增长两者密切相关,二者在互动中循环发展。     

旅游业—城市化—经济—交通复合系统的耦合协同演化机制 ——以云南省为例

基于云南省16个州(市)的面板数据,运用ArcGIS空间分析、耦合协调度模型等研究方法,从时空视角对云南省旅游业-城市化-经济-交通四个系统的发展水平及其耦合协调发展状况进行了整体评价。结果显示:云南省旅游业、城市化、经济、交通发展水平整体分别提升了48.15%、47.59%、35.91%、46.89%。2005~2017年,云南省各州(市)旅游业-城市化-经济-交通复合系统的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,但87.50%的州(市)仍处于中度耦合失调水平,且空间分异特征显著,形成以昆明为核心的"核心-边缘"梯度递减的空间结构特征,整体呈滇中>滇东南>滇西南>滇西北>滇东北>滇西的空间分布格局。