山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素，评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度，为科学编制区域空间规划，保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵，归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素，提出了驱动力指数计算方法，定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2，占生态用地总面积的472%； 转入316万hm2，占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2，占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多，向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之，向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中，耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高，非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

区域森林公园生态效率实证分析——以华东地区为例

采用Malmquist-Luenberger指数法对华东地区森林公园生态效率值进行测定的结果表明:从时序范围看,2011—2016年华东地区森林公园生态效率的均值为1. 006,但从2015年起进入下滑态势,说明华东地区森林公园的生态效率已经达到有效水平,但在扩大森林公园规模的同时忽视了对环境的有效保护以及资源的合理配置;从空间差异角度看,只有浙江与安徽两省的森林公园生态效率值未达到有效水平(分别为0. 851和0. 871),其余各省(市)的森林公园生态效率值均大于1,说明区域内存在一定的差异性;技术进步指数下降是制约MalmquistLuenberger指数提升的主要原因。由此可见,加大技术投入,促成交流合作机制,形成特有的竞争优势等,对提高区域森林公园生态效率是十分重要的。     

干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发生态风险评价及预测*——以开都河流域为例

[目的]探析开都河流域在未利用地开发过程中生态风险指数的变化特征,为西北干旱区内陆河流域土地利用结构调整与生态保护修复协调发展提供建议。[方法]文章采用PSR模型构建基于14个指标框架的流域未利用地开发生态风险评价指标体系;通过测度综合生态风险指数法进行时空视角的特征变化与格局划分评价;并运用灰色预测模型前瞻性模糊预测该区域未来4年的生态风险变化态势。[结果]2009—2016年开都河流域未利用地开发生态风险整体呈波动上升趋势,生态风险程度由较低下降至低生态风险水平,随后上升至一般程度。这是因为土地开发利用对生态环境造成压力,但在政府相应生态保护政策的出台落实下又逐步缓解,生态系统结构和功能好转明显,抵御风险能力得以提升。预测结果显示2017—2020年开都河流域生态风险将由一般生态风险程度上升至较高程度,因此需要采取适当的管理措施来消减生态风险发生的可能性。[结论]开都河流域作为沙漠中典型的绿洲生态系统,生态环境较为脆弱,通过未利用地的差别化开发、鼓励零星分散的开发模式以及细分不同地类开发的生态补偿设置等方式路径,以期缓解降低干旱区内陆河流域未利用地开发带来的生态风险。     

The influence of managers' awareness of climate change,perceived climate risk exposure and risk tolerance on the adoption of corporate responses to climate change

Uncertainties posed by climate change limit companies' ability to understand implications of global warming on business and society at large, hampering the adoption of tangible organizational responses to climate change. Understanding climate action thus requires to investigate influential factors of decision-making under uncertainty, which implies acknowledging managerial interpretations and perceptions about climate issues. Drawing insights from the literature on climate inaction and from corporate sustainability literature, the present study examines awareness of climate change and perceived exposure to climate risks as antecedents of corporate responses to climate change, drawing on a survey of managers of Italian manufacturing companies. In addition, the study tests the moderation of risk tolerance on the relation between perceived climate risk exposure and climate action, suggesting that risk attitudes are a significant factor of decision-making under climate uncertainty. The results support the hypothesis of the model and thus provide several contributions to the literature on business and climate change. Managerial implications and avenues for future research are also discussed.     

Climate for conflict management,exposure to workplace bullying and work engagement: a moderated mediation analysis

The present study investigates a potential preventive factor in relation to workplace bullying. Specifically, we examine how climate for conflict management (CCM) may be related to less bullying, increased work engagement, as well as whether CCM is a moderator in the bullying engagement relationship. The study was based on a cross-sectional survey among employees in a transport company (N = 312). Hypotheses were tested simultaneously in a moderated mediation analysis which showed that bullying and job engagement were related (H1), CCM was related to less reports of bullying (H2), CCM was related to work engagement (H3) and that CCM was indirectly related to job engagement through bullying (H4), but only when CCM was weak (H5). That is, CCM moderated the relationship between bullying and work engagement in that this relationship only existed when CCM was low. The present study contributes to theory within this research field by showing that organizational measures may not only prevent bullying, but may also affect how employees react when subjected to bullying. Furthermore, the effect of climate in relation to bullying may be down to the narrow bandwidth facet of CCM. The study informs employers how they may act to prevent bullying while also reducing the potential negative outcomes of those cases of bullying that inevitably will show up from time to time.     

闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价研究

[目的]根据闽侯县农用地闲置情况,结合当地社会经济及生态环境发展情况,深入分析闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全发展水平。[方法]建立闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价指标体系,分别从农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、外部进入农村投资、农业生产总值、种粮补贴、自然灾害、农业技术水平、农村生物的多样性程度、农村家庭收入结构、农村生态补偿金额、农地的整理规模及环保支出占GDP比重共确定12个指标进行深入研究,运用普通最小二乘法对设计的多元线性回归模型进行回归,进一步对闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平进行评价。[结果]农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、种粮补贴、环保支出占GDP比重、生态补偿金额、生物多样性程度对闽侯县闲置农地生态安全水平起到促进作用,呈正相关趋势;自然灾害则与闲置农地生态安全水平呈负相关趋势。[结论]整体看来,闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平主要受到当地经济、环境及生态基础三大因素的影响。     

黔东南山地生态农业发展评价及预测研究

[目的]对2012~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业发展做出评价,并预测其2018~2027年的发展情况,以期了解黔东南地区农业可持续发展能力及未来趋势的变化规律。[方法]以黔东南及贵州《2013~2017年统计年鉴》为数据来源,通过构建评价指标体系,利用层次分析法及加权评分法对2012~2016年山地生态农业发展做出评价;并运用灰色模型,借助Matlab工具,对黔东南山地生态农业发展做出预测。[结果]2010~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业的经济、生态、社会效益处于发展上升阶段,协调度良好,但生态效益发展最低,其中2015年经济、社会、生态系统可持续发展良好,但由于持续保护,2016年出现生态保护过度,经济和综合效益下降现象,因此发展模式有待于向发展经济和社会效益方面倾斜;黔东南州山地生态农业在2018~2027年将会处于发展上升阶段,但其发展缓慢,仍存在一定限制因素。[结论]政府应积极调整农业产业结构,转变农业发展思路,可将部分生态农业与旅游相结合,发挥区位特色的同时,提升品牌的知名度。加大力度引导农业园区和重点产业的发展,推进农业农村改革试点的运行,加大新型农人的培育,促进高效、现代、特色生态农业的发展。     

Determinants of how individuals choose,eat and waste: Providing common ground to enhance sustainable food consumption out‐of‐home

The transformation of food consumption in wealthy economies is regarded as an essential measure to reach global sustainability goals. However, existing policies and research activities to change food consumption in the increasingly relevant out‐of‐home sector relate to a wide set of options on how to influence behaviours and may be criticized to lack a general focus. Against this background, our study provides a structured review of the existing research body on the determinants of individuals’ food choices and food consumption out‐of‐home. It structures the various research approaches and findings for 110 selected papers according to a general ecological framework where personal, social and environmental determinants for food behaviours are considered. By providing a collective overview and linking results for different behavioural aspects and settings, this study supports a more general understanding of consumer food behaviour in out‐of‐home settings. Consequently, it also provides a means to identify research gaps and to suggest relevant aspects for future research to draw from the combination of findings and to enhance sustainability in food consumption.     

成渝经济区生态农业对区域经济影响分析

[目的]区域经济发展反映经济各个方面的综合发展状况,探讨其影响因素以确定区域未来经济的发展方向,为进一步规划发展提供科学依据。[方法]先构建生态农业评价指标体系再采用层析分析法确定权重,结合线性加权和函数计算生态农业评价指数,通过相关分析法分析生态农业各个指标与区域经济的关系,最终确定生态农业对成渝经济区经济的影响程度。[结果]生态农业指标中评价指数大于0.9是森林覆盖率,介于0.8~0.7的包括投入产出比、土地生产率、农业科技贡献率、万人拥有的科技人员、劳动生产率、化肥施用量。且生态农业中各个指标与GDP都正相关,其中森林覆盖率、人均收入增长率、农业科技贡献率和万人拥有的科技人员与GDP显著相关,对区域经济的影响最大。[结论]成渝经济区经济受生态农业的影响,进一步选取更多生态农业相关因素,对于全面促进区域经济持续发展具有十分的重要现实意义。     

Supply‐ versus Demand‐Side Policies in the Presence of Carbon Leakage and the Green Paradox

We consider a climate coalition that seeks to reduce global emissions in the presence of carbon leakage and resource exhaustibility. We show that a credible announcement of future unilateral supply‐side policies delays foreign emissions, and we derive the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when we consider leakages from free riders, both within periods and across periods. The tax shares generally differ over time. A decline in the present value of the social cost of carbon over time supports a time path where the consumers’ tax share of the total carbon tax also declines over time. We illustrate our findings with a numerical model.