突发公共事件对电影行业影响的量化研究

人工收集和整理2012—2018年在中国市场上映的首轮院线电影信息数据，构建电影需求的嵌套logit回归模型，以新冠肺炎疫情为准自然实验，来量化突发公共事件对电影行业复产复工的影响。结果显示：第一，关于上映时间选择，在恢复营业后，如果所有因为疫情尚未上映的电影选择顺延上映能有效避免过度竞争的局面。第二，关于上映节奏控制，控制好未定档电影的上映节奏，保持适当的竞争能促进经济效益提升。其中，从11月份开始以每周两部的频率上映未定档电影的经济效益最佳。第三，关于上映方式选择，与线下播放相比，疫情期间选择线上播放能及时收回成本并有利于经济收益最大化的实现。研究结论为电影行业制定复产复工策略提供依据，为未来应对突发公共卫生事件提供参考。     

水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测

近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。     

基于AD9361的掌上型LTE RRU设计与开发

当前小体积远端射频单元（Remote Radio Unit,RRU）主要是皮站级别的Pico-RRU，其重量和体积仍然难以满足掌上型的要求。为此，采用高集成度的AD9361芯片来实现长期演进（Long Term Evolution，LTE）宽带收发信机功能，配合时钟同步模块、放大器模块和控制接口电路等一起构建低成本的掌上型RRU。主要解决了基于AD9516的时钟同步、低相位噪声设计和高灵敏度接收机设计三个技术难点，成功实现了掌上型、高性能、低成本的设计目标。整个RRU样机尺寸为18 cm×10 cm×2 cm，质量约500 g，量产成本千元以内。测试表明，该RRU下行误差向量幅度（Error Vector Magnitude，EVM）小于3%，优于3GPP要求的8%；10 MHz带宽时上行接收机灵敏度优于3GPP要求的-93.5 dBm。     

Laypeople roles at road traffic crash scenes: a systematic review

This study aimed to identify the roles of laypeople at road traffic injuries (RTIs). A systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The key words of ‘laypeople’, ‘layman’, ‘layperson’, ‘bystander’, ‘first responder’, ‘lay first responder’, ‘road traffic’, ‘road traffic injury’, ‘crash injury’, ‘crash scene’, ‘emergency’, ‘trauma care’, and ‘prehospital trauma care’ were used in combination with the Boolean operators OR and AND. We did electronic search on Google Scholar, PubMed, ISI Web of Science, CINAHL, Science Direct, Scopus, ProQuest. Based on the reviewed studies, some factors such as cultural conditions, knowledge, relief agencies, and demographic factors affect the interventions of laypeople at the crash scene in functional areas. Regarding the permanent presence of people at the crash scene, the present study can provide an opportunity to reduce different side effects of RTIs imposed on the society.     

重大疫情对应急物流系统建设的启示

新型冠状病毒引发重大疫情,暴露出众多的物流问题,针对“急”和“乱”这两个应急物流的主要特点,从业务、管理(执行)、技术三个层面提出建设应急物流系统的新思想,即采用平战结合、军民融合的建设方法,重点建设全国统一的应急响应物流信息平台,运用大数据、AI等技术手段,快速完成物流需求分析,充分应用自动化、智能化和无人机、机器人等先进技术手段,培养一支技术全面的国家队伍,完成应急物流的快速响应。     

A systematic review of AI technology-based service encounters: Implications for hospitality and tourism operations

The hospitality and tourism industry faces serious challenges during public health emergencies such as COVID-19. Managers are concerned not only about how to maintain business and provide humanized services but also about social distancing. This study presented artificial intelligence (AI) technology-based service encounters as a possible solution and examined the antecedents and consequences of the encounter triad including customers, employees, and AI. Based on a systematic literature review, the study identified 4 modes of AI technology-based service encounters: AI-supplemented, AI-generated, AI-mediated, and AI-facilitated encounters. In addition, the study developed an integrated model to specify the factors that influence AI technology-infused service encounters in general and the customer service outcomes that result from the encounters. The findings contribute to service management and AI application theoretically and practically.     

当前基层公共卫生机构应急管理若干问题的思考

面对新冠肺炎疫情,基层公共卫生机构发挥了十分重要的作用,但同时暴露出了一些不足。论文总结了我国基层公共卫生机构应急管理存在的问题,提出从四个方面着力完善基层公共卫生应急管理制度体系,同时,要加强对信息系统的应用及人才的培养和引进,以提升基层卫生应急机制的敏感性、反应性。     

完善我国应急财政资金管理的途径

应急财政资金管理是我国建设应急管理体系的重要环节。当前我国的应急财政资金使用中存在常规资金规模偏小、筹集比例不合理、资金管理不完善、资金使用缺乏监督等问题。应从完善应急财政资金预算管理制度,拓宽筹资渠道,优化应急财政资金的拨付和使用程序,健全应急财政资金的监管制度等方面,完善我国应急财政管理。     

船舶应急操纵状态下人的可靠性分析方法

根据影响船员人因可靠性的因素,构建船舶应急操纵状态下人因可靠性评估指标体系;然后通过借鉴CREAM方法的分析思想,构建船舶应急操纵状态下的人员可靠性评估模型。最后,将此方法应用于某运营于国际航线的干散货船舶进行应急状态下船舶操纵人因可靠性分析,分析结果表明该方法简单易行,结果合理,很适合于当前评估船舶应急作业状态下的人因可靠性。     

Resource conflict detection and removal strategy for nondeterministic emergency response processes using Petri nets

Correctness of an emergency response process specification is critical to emergency mission success. Therefore, errors in the specification should be detected and corrected at build-time. In this paper, we propose a resource conflict detection approach and removal strategy for emergency response processes constrained by resources and time. In this kind of emergency response process, there are two timing functions representing the minimum and maximum execution time for each activity, respectively, and many activities require resources to be executed. Based on the RT_ERP_Net, the earliest time to start each activity and the ideal execution time of the process can be obtained. To detect and remove the resource conflicts in the process, the conflict detection algorithms and a priority-activity-first resolution strategy are given. In this way, real execution time for each activity is obtained and a conflict-free RT_ERP_Net is constructed by adding virtual activities. By experiments, it is proved that the resolution strategy proposed can shorten the execution time of the whole process to a great degree.