“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

中国新能源制氢潜力评价研究——基于31省份2017年和2030年的分析

使用SBM-Undesirable模型测算我国31省份的新能源制氢效率,从新能源制氢效率和新能源装机容量两个维度构建评价体系,再应用熵权评价法,对我国31省份的新能源制氢潜力进行分析,同时研究了新能源制氢潜力2017—2030年的变化情况。结果表明:风电制氢的效率明显高于光伏制氢;西北和华北地区的新能源制氢潜力明显高于其他地区;西北和华南地区存在新能源制氢潜力与加氢设施建设之间短期发展不均衡的现象;2030年我国各省份新能源制氢效率和潜力较2017年都有所提升。最后,依据评价结果提出改善我国氢能产业发展的对策建议。     

中部六省碳排放效率与产业结构优化的耦合协调度及影响因素分析

采用SBM-Undesirable模型测算了1999—2017年中部六省的碳排放效率,分别计算了产业结构合理化指数和高级化指数,利用耦合协调模型考察了碳排放效率与产业结构优化的耦合协调度,并对其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明:中部六省碳排放效率和产业结构合理化的耦合协调度较低,处在中度失调和中度协调之间,碳排放效率和产业结构高级化的耦合协调度处在中度失调和中度协调之间,但有明显上升的趋势。人力资本、财政支出对中部六省碳排放效率和产业结构合理化的协调发展起到了促进作用,而环境规制、能源结构产生了抑制的作用。人力资本对碳排放效率和产业结构高级化的耦合协调度有正向作用,而外商投资、人均资本、制度质量和能源结构产生了抑制作用。     

Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by the opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational wind farms. This paper describes a novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical access conditions during crew transfers. Methods of generating density forecasts of significant wave height and peak wave period are developed and evaluated. It is found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well as a non-parametric approach. Scenario forecasts of sea-state variables are generated and used as inputs to a data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded during 700 crew transfers. This enables the production of probabilistic access forecasts of vessel motion during crew transfer up to 5 days ahead. The above methodology is implemented on a case study at a wind farm off the east coast of the UK.     

大学生消费行为调查与分析

大学生是社会消费群体的重要组成部分,他们的消费行为特征受到越来越多人的关注。为了更好地了解大学生的具体消费行为,本文采取问卷调查的方式,以合肥师范学院在校大学生作为调查对象,进一步了解大学生的消费理念、方式以及水平、结构等。最后根据调查结果的数据分析,对大学生理性消费提出具体建议,以引导大学生树立正确的消费观念。     

The effect of control deprivation on consumers’ adoption of no-pain,no-gain principle

Consumers often base their judgments on a no-pain, no-gain principle—that is, one must pay a cost in order to achieve a beneficial outcome. For example, they infer the quality of a product from its price and judge a bad-tasting medicine to be more effective than a tasty one. Although the use of this principle to infer the value of a product or service has been observed in several domains, the processes that underlie its use have not been fully explored. We find that when people feel out of control, they tend to use the principle because it exemplifies a causal relationship between actions and outcomes and endorsing it reaffirms their belief that they have control over the outcomes of their behavior. Our findings have implications for how marketers might position products and services to attract consumers who perceive themselves as having different levels of control.     

Quantifying landscape externalities of renewable energy development: Implications of attribute cut-offs in choice experiments

Renewable energy is worldwide seen as a key element necessary to address climate change. However, finding socially acceptable locations for renewable energy facilities and the accompanying infrastructure increasingly often faces fierce opposition. This paper quantifies the landscape externalities of renewable energies employing a choice experiment. In addition, it is investigated how accounting for non-compensatory choice behavior, i.e. attribute cut-offs, affects welfare measures and subsequently policy recommendations. The empirical application is Germany where we conducted a nationwide survey on the development of renewable energies. We first show that cut-off elicitation questions prior to the choice experiment at least partially influence preferences. We further find that most participants state cut-off levels for attributes. Many are, however, at the same time willing to violate the self-imposed thresholds when choosing among the alternatives. To account for this effect, stated cut-offs are incorporated into a mixed logit model following the soft cut-off approach. Model results indicate substantial taste heterogeneity in preferences and in the use of cutoffs. Also, welfare estimates are substantially affected. We conclude that welfare changes from renewable energy development could be strongly underestimated when cut-offs are ignored.     

A note on the long rate in factor models of the term structure

In this paper, we consider factor models of the term structure based on a Brownian filtration. We show that the existence of a nondeterministic long rate in a factor model of the term structure implies, as a consequence of the Dybvig–Ingersoll–Ross theorem, that the model has an equivalent representation in which one of the state variables is nondecreasing. For two‐dimensional factor models, we prove moreover that if the long rate is nondeterministic, the yield curve flattens out, and the factor process is asymptotically nondeterministic, then the term structure is unbounded. Finally, we provide an explicit example of a three‐dimensional affine factor model with a nondeterministic yet finite long rate in which the volatility of the factor process does not vanish over time.     

激励、监督与经销商依从：依赖结构的调节作用

文章以代理理论为基础，实证分析激励和监督对经销商依从的影响及依赖结构的调节作用。研究发现：激励会促进经销商依从，而监督则会抑制经销商依从；相互依赖强度会削弱监督对经销商依从的负向影响，但对激励与经销商依从间的关系没有显著影响；经销商相对依赖会增强激励对经销商依从的正向影响，但对监督与经销商依从间的关系没有显著影响。文章最后对研究发现进行讨论，并提出管理建议和未来研究的方向。     

Resolving post-formation challenges in shared IJVs: The impact of shared IJV structure on inter-partner relationships

The “50/50”, or the shared management international joint venture (shared IJV) remains a popular and yet challenging control structure to govern IJVs. The purpose of this study is to understand the post-formation management of shared IJVs, specifically the relationship between shared structure, relational conditions and management of post-formation challenges. Our evidence is based on 26 in-depth interviews across four cases of shared IJVs between British multinationals and Asian companies. Our findings indicate that the highly integrative nature of shared IJVs, including high operational interdependence and shared decision-making, encourages partners to work closely together, communicate frequently and intensely and exchange personnel. Although share management can lead to inter-partner conflicts, the equal investment and mutual responsibility partly provides partners with motivation and opportunities to learn about each other, to better implement the control structure, to build trust, and to commit to the venture and partner. These relational conditions facilitated the successful management of post-formation challenges such as diversity related conflicts and macro volatility.