毛竹水溶性多糖提取工艺的优化及结构表征

采用响应面法优化毛竹水溶性多糖的提取工艺,分析其成分,并进行结构表征。研究结果表明,优化的毛竹多糖(BSP)提取条件为:料液比1∶27(g/mL)、提取温度78 ℃、提取时间4 h,该条件下BSP提取率为(5.18±0.07)%,提取物中多糖含量为(72.14±0.02)%,糖醛酸含量为(9.76±0.03)%;BSP具有酸性多糖典型的官能团特征吸收峰,其单糖组成及摩尔比为n_甘露糖∶n_葡萄糖∶n_阿拉伯糖∶n_木糖∶n_鼠李糖∶n_半乳糖=62.52∶23.05∶10.35∶2.78∶0.79∶0.51;BSP由两个主峰组成,相对分子质量分别为91.11、4.55 kDa。BSP是一种混合酸性多糖。     

改性PET沉淀设备工程实例

目前在市政净水处理厂和企业生产用水处理厂由于斜板发生型变、位移、滋生藻类造成滑泥不顺畅甚至堵塞致使最后的水处理工艺出水水质达不到生产、生活要求的现象较多。其原因在于混凝-沉淀的一般性斜板在使用过程中存在两个问题,一是热熔焊接的斜板,焊点凹凸不平,容易积泥、滋生细菌和藻类影响斜板的水力条件,再有问题是塑料斜板在紫外照射的时候存在老化发生型变、型变过程伴随着斜板的位移从而很大程度影响斜板的水利条件和使用寿命。本文采用改性PET斜板解决了上述问题,并应用到工程实际当中去,取得了预期的效果。改性无毒PET材质大幅提高了沉淀板的抗蠕变、耐疲劳、耐摩擦等机械性能,PET材料耐酸碱、抗日晒、防老化、耐高低温等优异的化学性能应用于工程水处理设备,带来的是水处理设备材料的革命。     

Bouncing Back from Extreme Weather Events: Some Preliminary Findings on Resilience Barriers Facing Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises

Extreme weather events (EWEs) pose unprecedented threats to modern societies and represent a much‐debated issue strongly interlinked with current development policies. Small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), which constitute a driving force of economic growth, employment and total value added, remain highly vulnerable to and ill prepared for such environmental perturbations. This study investigates barriers to SMEs’ resilience to EWEs in an attempt to shed light on enabling factors that can define effective organizational responses to non‐linear environmental stimuli. Relying on structural equation modeling and data gathered from 109 SMEs that recently experienced EWE impacts, we link the general concept of SMEs’ resilience barriers to EWEs with a series of elements to determine specific internal and external factors that contribute the most to EWE resilience. In particular, external barriers of institutional conditions and mechanisms of support and guidance as well as internal barriers of resources and managerial perceptions are found to be the most critical ones in determining resilience. The assessment offers essential research evidence for practitioners on SME management and sets forth linkages with current mechanisms for policy interventions towards an appropriate resilience agenda for SMEs. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

This must be the place: A destination-loyalty model for extreme sporting events

This paper tests a moderated sequential mediation model based on hypothesized relationships in extreme sporting events, addressing what drives participants’ destination loyalty. Drawing from edgework theory and sensation-seeking theory, the model accounts for sensation-seeking, event authenticity, self-enhancement, place attachment, and revisit intention. Two opposite paths emerge: a direct, negative relationship between sensation-seeking and destination loyalty, and a positive indirect path mediated by self-enhancement and place attachment. The relationships are explored in two studies: first, Study 1 on 300 individuals attending FISE, the largest freestyle sports event in the world. Then, Study 2, meant to extend the ecological validity of Study 1, based on a panel of 300 attendees of various extreme sporting events in several disciplines. Implications for theory and practice are addressed.     

湖州地区辐射影响因子分析

[目的]为了探究湖州地区太阳辐射情况,利用2009年1月至2017年12月湖州国家基本气象站的辐射观测资料、地面常规观测资料以及大气成分观测资料。[方法]文章分析了湖州地区太阳辐射的变化特征,并检验了太阳辐射与部分气象要素极值的相关性。[结果]太阳辐射日变化基本呈抛物线型。6月因湖州地区进入梅雨季节,阴雨寡照,并不是一年中辐射最大的月份,一年中辐射的最大值出现在7月,之后逐渐下降。按季节统计,夏季辐射最大,春季次之,秋季比冬季略高。除了2015年以外,近几年辐射总量平稳中稍有下降,考虑到可能存在的辐射年际变化,并不能就此认为该地区的辐射处于下降趋势中。辐射强度与总云量、低云量、最小相对湿度为负相关,与日最高温度、日最高地温呈正相关。晴天时,太阳辐射强度与颗粒物浓度PM10、PM2. 5、PM1三者相关性基本一致,均为春、秋和冬季呈负相关,夏季呈正相关,两者的关系应该按季节具体分析。[结论]影响湖州地区辐射的因子有很多,部分气象因子相关性较好,颗粒物浓度不能简单看成全年太阳辐射的影响因子。     

Semiparametric estimation of multi-asset portfolio tail risk

When correlations between assets turn positive, multi-asset portfolios can become riskier than single assets. This article presents the estimation of tail risk at very high quantiles using a semiparametric estimator which is particularly suitable for portfolios with a large number of assets. The estimator captures simultaneously the information contained in each individual asset return that composes the portfolio, and the interrelation between assets. Noticeably, the accuracy of the estimates does not deteriorate when the number of assets in the portfolio increases. The implementation is as easy for a large number of assets as it is for a small number. We estimate the probability distribution of large losses for the American stock market considering portfolios with ten, fifty and one hundred assets of stocks with different market capitalization. In either case, the approximation for the portfolio tail risk is very accurate. We compare our results with well known benchmark models.     

基于福州市降水量数据研究降水期权定价

为应对干旱、洪涝等降水事件给相关经济主体带来的风险,基于1953年1月至2016年12月福州市月均累积降水量数据,运用威尔克斯法对降水量进行建模,利用蒙特卡罗模法对降水期权进行定价从而得到降水期权价值,并提出发展我国降水期权的政策建议。     

Kernel-type estimators for the distortion risk premiums of heavy-tailed distributions

A new kernel-type estimator for the distortion risk premiums of heavy-tailed losses is introduced. Using a least-squares approach, a bias-reduced version of this estimator is proposed. Under suitable assumptions, the asymptotic normality of the given estimators is established. A small simulation study, to illustrate the performance of our method, is carried out.     

Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review

Statistical issues arising in modelling univariate extremes of a random sample have been successfully used in the most diverse fields, such as biometrics, finance, insurance and risk theory. Statistics of univariate extremes (SUE), the subject to be dealt with in this review paper, has recently faced a huge development, partially because rare events can have catastrophic consequences for human activities, through their impact on the natural and constructed environments. In the last decades, there has been a shift from the area of parametric SUE, based on probabilistic asymptotic results in extreme value theory, towards semi‐parametric approaches. After a brief reference to Gumbel's block methodology and more recent improvements in the parametric framework, we present an overview of the developments on the estimation of parameters of extreme events and on the testing of extreme value conditions under a semi‐parametric framework. We further discuss a few challenging topics in the area of SUE. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

近44年关中夏季分级雨日及降水量的变化特征

[目的]通过对关中地区夏季雨日(量)进行分级研究,更深入地了解关中夏季降水变化特征及各级雨日(量)对关中夏季降水变化的贡献大小。[方法]利用1970~2013年关中地区44个气象站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析法,Mann-Kendall检验,t-检验和GIS技术等方法对关中夏季不同等级雨日和雨量变化特征进行分析。[结果](1)关中多年平均夏季雨日空间分布均为西多东少,西北部塬区和山区丘陵多于平原,各等级雨日和对应雨量空间分布特征及变化趋势相似。(2)近44年关中夏季总雨日、小雨日(量)和大雨日(量)均呈减少趋势,夏季降雨总量、中雨日(量)和暴雨日(量)均呈增加趋势,但线性变化趋势均不显著。其中小雨日(量)和大雨日(量)分别在1989年和1985年发生突变性减少,中雨日(量)在1978年发生突变增加。(3)单站分析表明关中夏季总雨日除咸阳大部外多数呈负趋势,夏季降雨量除渭南大部外普遍为正趋势。其中大部分站点小雨日(量)和大雨日(量)为负趋势,减少显著的站点分布在宝鸡地区;中雨日(量)和暴雨日(量)普遍为正趋势。[结论]夏季总雨量的增加主要贡献者是中雨量增加,总雨日减少主要是小雨日减少引起。从长期趋势变化看,关中夏季降水强度有增加趋势。