Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.     

Higher Intensity,Higher Profit? Empirical Evidence from Dairy Farming in New Zealand

Over the last two decades there have been significant and well‐documented changes in the nature and structure of New Zealand dairy production. One particular feature has been a marked shift in the ‘input intensity’ of dairy farming systems through increased use of supplementary feed. These changes have generated debate about the impact of dairy farm intensity on the performance of farm businesses and the competitiveness of the New Zealand dairy sector. Using a novel econometric approach, we assess statistically the impact of three types of dairy farming systems on milk production and financial performance, using farm business data provided by DairyBase^®. Our empirical results show that higher input systems perform significantly better physically than lower input systems, but not financially. The disaggregated analysis suggests that the average treatment effects differ by region and performance quantiles.     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.     

Asymmetric effects of housing wealth on college enrolment

We investigate the impact of housing wealth, credit availability and financial distress on college enrolment decisions. We find that housing wealth is negatively related to enrolment in public schools and positively related to enrolment in private schools. This evidence suggests that, on average, students substituted away from private schools towards public institutions during the recent financial crisis.     

Economics of household food waste

Food waste has drawn increasing public attention, and the high levels of estimated waste are largely considered to be a failure of our current food system. Recently, economists have begun to weigh in, showing food waste can emerge as the result of a complex equilibrium affected by consumers’ preferences for convenience; expectations about future food prices and availability; food safety concerns; producers’ costs of holding inventory, transportation, and storage; government regulation; and technology. If food waste is a form of inefficiency, there are either strong economic motivations to reduce waste, or unmeasured costs or preferences affecting waste decisions. If consumers have behavioral biases, suffer from information asymmetries, or do not pay the full cost of their waste, there may be a role for government intervention to reduce waste, but most empirical models in the literature have not articulated or quantified the extent of the deadweight loss from the market failures in relation to food waste. In some cases, waste reduction efforts could harm producers if overall demand for food is reduced or harm consumers if overconsumption is encouraged, quality or safety degrades, or supply disruptions occur. Technological innovations, which lower the cost of storage or extend shelf life have the potential to improve both consumer and producer welfare.     

农地流转市场中的土地流向及效果分析

［目的］我国农地流转市场发展迅速，农村土地呈现集中趋势。准确把握农村土地流动方向，探析农地流转对农业生产效率及农民收入的影响，对保障农地流转市场健康发展，实现农业现代化的关键，具有重要的现实意义。［方法］基于文献研究法对相关研究进行梳理和总结。［结果］（1）有效的农地流转市场使土地从低效率生产者流转至高效率生产者，从高收入农户流转至收入两端的农户，并有提高农业生产效率和增加农民收入的作用。转入户中存在显著的异质性差异，一部分是缺乏资金和人力资本的小规模农户，另一部分则是具有丰富资金和人力资本的大规模农户。（2）农业比较收益劣势易造成农地流转市场扭曲，改变土地流动方向，导致农业生产效率下降，并加剧农民收入的不平等。［结论］有效的农地流转市场有助于提高农业生产效率并增加农户收入。然而，农业较低的比较收益及政府的过度干预易造成农地流转市场扭曲，农业生产效率提升潜力难以发挥，增收效应减弱，农村收入差距加大。建议政府对农地流转进行有序引导，并注重劳动力市场及信贷市场的配套完善。     

Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy

We investigate how the level of household indebtedness affects the monetary transmission mechanism in the U.S. economy. Using state‐dependent local projection methods, we find that the effects of monetary policy are less powerful during periods of high household debt. In particular, the impact of monetary policy shocks is smaller on GDP, consumption, residential investment, house prices, and household debt during a high‐debt state. We then build a partial equilibrium model of borrower households with financial constraints to rationalize these facts. The model points to the weakening of the home equity loan channel as a possible reason for the decline in monetary policy effectiveness when initial debt levels are high.     

基于质量变革视角的产业集群升级路径研究--以顺德世界级家电产业集群为例

质量是引领经济发展的标杆,质量状况决定产业集群升级的基础,质量改进优化产业集群升级的路径,质量提高影响产业集群升级的方式,质量生态系统决定产业集群升级的能力。在质量变革视角下,顺德家电产业集群通过供给侧结构性改革、产业链整合和主攻智能制造升级的路径为:一是由贴牌代工向自主品牌升级;二是由整机生产向全产业链一体化转型;三是由自动化走向智能化。推动家电产业集群升级对我国促进传统产业集群升级有重要启示,通过制造业产业集群质量全面提升以促进我国产业集群全面升级,是助力我国新时代高质量发展的必然选择。     

Chinese consumers’ preferences for food quality test/measurement indicators and cues of milk powder: A case of Zhengzhou,China

Many food regulations focus on test/measurement indicators, such as hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) and traceability, etc. Other than these indicators, the food industry uses various cues such as product origin as indicators of product quality. However, in an environment where consumers’ confidence in food safety is low due to frequent food safety scandals, little is known about the efficiency of these test/measurement indicators and cues. This paper used the primary data collected in Zhengzhou (China) to estimate consumers’ preferences for test/measurement indicators and a new cue of “own farm” for milk powder. Our results show that country of origin is the most important cue attribute, followed by price and own farm. The importance of test/measurement indicators such as organic, traceability, and HACCP certification is relatively low. Also, the individual parameter estimates show that consumers’ preferences for test/measurement indicators currently in the market are weak and fragile. Interestingly, price has an inverse-U-shaped relationship with consumer utility, implying that Chinese consumers may perceive low-price milk powder as low quality. The results of this study provide important insight for regulatory authorities and the food industry to develop more effective policies and programs to improve consumer preferences for milk powder.     

家庭结构对农地流转意愿的影响——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

研究目的:分析家庭结构对农民流转土地意愿的影响,并揭示其内部机理的形成,以期为土地流转政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:因子分析法和结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)家庭人口特征、土地使用特征、户主个体特征及家庭决策特征4类外源潜变量会显著影响农地流转意愿;(2)可观测变量对外源潜变量的解释能力较强,其中,家庭总人口、实际经营及流转土地面积、户主年龄、家庭内部矛盾解决方式分别对这4类外源潜变量的解释能力相对较好,即家庭总人口越多、实际经营及流转土地面积越小、户主年龄越大、依赖于内部解决矛盾的家庭更愿意流转农地。研究结论:家庭结构主要通过主动依赖、扶养压力、收入偏好、农地保障、决策信息5种机理对流转意愿产生影响,未来土地流转政策的完善应重视解决这些问题。