The Bullionist Controversy: Theory and New Evidence

The Bullionist Controversy in the United Kingdom is one of the first debates about the determination of the price level and the exchange rate under a paper money standard. Despite the importance of the debate in the development of monetary theory, there remains little empirical evidence that uses modern, multivariate time series techniques. The evidence that does exist provides support for the Anti‐Bullionist position. The purpose of this paper is to review the debate and develop a dynamic general equilibrium model that is capable of capturing key features of the nineteenth‐century British financial system. The model is estimated using Bayesian procedures to test the competing hypotheses. The paper provides support for the Bullionist position.     

基于遥感蒸散数据的农田灌溉水平评价和设施建设分区研究

[目的]利用遥感蒸散数据快速评价农田年度灌溉水平,及时获取基本农田建设成效,为农田灌溉设施分区建设提供参考。[方法]以黑龙江省海伦市为研究区,MOD16蒸散产品为数据源,计算有效灌溉量、灌溉需水量和作物缺水指数,分别对研究区2013年的旱地和水田灌溉水平进行评价,并将评价结果与农田水利设施作用分值图进行叠加分析,在此基础上进行基本农田灌溉设施建设分区。[结果]2013年海伦市耕地灌溉水平整体较高,区域间建设水平差别较大,可划分为4个级别。其中1级和2级灌溉水平的地块面积比例可达78.06%,地域分布上看,北部、西部、中部乡镇灌溉水平较高,东南部乡镇灌溉水平相对较低。叠加得出8种组合类型,分为设施修建型、设施提升型和设施维护型3种分区类型。[结论]研究为高标准农田建设提供了更详细的农田灌溉水平评价方法和更具差别化的农田灌溉设施建设策略。     

The Impact of Farmland Transfers on Agricultural Investment in China: A Perspective of Transaction Cost Economics

There is growing concern that farmland transfers lead to less agricultural investment, which may adversely affect agricultural productivity growth in China. Prior research has primarily focused on the differences between owned cultivated land and rented plots, but little is known about how farmland transfers between relatives, which are popular in rural China, specifically affect agricultural investment. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework of transaction cost economics to compare different contracting strategies in China's farmland rental markets. As farmland rental markets in China are immature, land transfer between relatives establishes bilateral governance, which has the advantage of addressing the opportunistic activities of both parties and can ultimately increase investment by tenants. Based on data from two waves of household surveys, we empirically examine the impact of bilateral governance on the application of organic fertilizer, an indicator for agricultural investment. Our findings show that apart from economic factors, kinship is important to the functioning of farmland rental markets in rural areas.     

On pure-strategy Nash equilibria in price–quantity games

This paper examines the existence and characteristics of pure-strategy Nash equilibria in oligopoly models in which firms simultaneously set prices and quantities. Existence of a pure-strategy equilibrium is proved for a class of price–quantity games. If the demand function is continuous, then the equilibrium outcome is similar to that of a price-only model. With discontinuous demand and limited spillover, there are rationing equilibria in which combined production falls short of market demand. Moreover, there might again be an equilibrium reflecting the outcome of a price game. Competition in price and quantity thus yields Bertrand outcomes under a variety of market conditions.     

江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策绩效评价与空间差异研究

［目的］分析评价江苏省现有农田保护经济补偿政策绩效与空间差异对建立完善长效的农业生态补偿机制和推动我国农业生态环境的可持续发展具有重要意义。［方法］以江苏省为研究区域，运用熵权-TOPSIS法，选取2010—2017年全省及苏北、苏中、苏南三个区域内11个指标，计算江苏省及三大区域农田保护经济补偿政策综合绩效值与经济、生态和社会效益单项绩效值，进行比较分析。［结果］（1）江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策在2010—2017年8年综合绩效值由0189波动增长到0841，效果初现且具有较强推广价值。（2）经济效益绩效值以年均257%的增长率由0增长到1，效果最为显著，社会效益次之，生态效益自2013年后为绩效值中最低值，与前两项最大差距在05左右，反映出环境改善、农田质量提高效应远低于农户创收、社会公平效应，政策拟合度不高。（3）江苏省农田保护经济补偿政策效果存在空间差异，综合来看政策效果表现为苏南>苏中>苏北，苏南凭借经济优势在2016年和2017年的综合绩效值上比苏中苏北高出01、在经济与社会绩效值以002的差距领先且生态绩效值没有下降拐点，具有长效可持续性。［结论］现阶段农田保护经济补偿政策效果依赖地方政府经济实力，尚未形成良性长效机制，需从制度体系、环境经济手段、差别化补偿措施、农业补贴结构和宣传等5方面着手，推进农田保护经济补偿政策更好地服务生态环境。     

家庭结构对农地流转意愿的影响——基于结构方程模型的实证分析

研究目的:分析家庭结构对农民流转土地意愿的影响,并揭示其内部机理的形成,以期为土地流转政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:因子分析法和结构方程模型。研究结果:(1)家庭人口特征、土地使用特征、户主个体特征及家庭决策特征4类外源潜变量会显著影响农地流转意愿;(2)可观测变量对外源潜变量的解释能力较强,其中,家庭总人口、实际经营及流转土地面积、户主年龄、家庭内部矛盾解决方式分别对这4类外源潜变量的解释能力相对较好,即家庭总人口越多、实际经营及流转土地面积越小、户主年龄越大、依赖于内部解决矛盾的家庭更愿意流转农地。研究结论:家庭结构主要通过主动依赖、扶养压力、收入偏好、农地保障、决策信息5种机理对流转意愿产生影响,未来土地流转政策的完善应重视解决这些问题。     

农地发展权流出、资本回流与区域经济增长*——基于重庆市的实证研究

[目的]以重庆市为研究区域,以农地发展权资本化的地票指标为研究对象,从理论和实证层面探讨农地发展权交易与资本要素的城乡互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响,为进一步优化农地发展权交易政策、促进区域均衡发展提供相关建议。[方法]基于2008—2017年城乡统筹改革试验区重庆市地票指标交易的面板数据,运用要素禀赋理论和差分GMM模型从理论和实证层面分析农地发展权流出区土地与资本要素的互动关系及其对区域经济增长的影响。[结果]基于区域间资源禀赋的差异及要素相对价格的分化,在市场机制作用下,农地发展权指标将以配置效率优化为导向在不同区域间自由流动。[结论]短期内,由于资本约束,流出农地发展权的区域其经济增长会受到抑制;而当农地发展权指标资本化后,流出区获得了较为稀缺的货币资本,农地发展权流出将显著促进地方经济增长;同时,在研究时期内,由于农地发展权市场交易机制的构建,重庆市地方经济增长存在显著的收敛效应,区域间经济发展差距将会逐步缩小。     

Stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms: A new perspective to understand business cycles

Economists believe that economic fluctuations can be smoothed by stabilization mechanisms, such as price adjustment, embedded in the economy. While price adjustment can be seen as a stabilization mechanism, are there mechanisms that can destabilize an economy? We find that as early as 1939, Harrod discussed a destabilization mechanism, the firm's investment adjustment, illustrated in his knife-edge puzzle. We build a macro-dynamic model with investment and price as the core macroeconomic variables. Our analysis shows that the interaction between the stabilization mechanism (price adjustment) and the destabilization mechanism (investment adjustment) generates fluctuations and cycles. However, due to price stickiness, the price adjustment mechanism may not be enough to stabilize the economy. In this case, a government stabilization policy is necessary for further stabilization. As this paper also addresses the microfoundations of Keynesian quantity theory, including the choice of output and investment in optimization, it can be related to traditional Keynesian economics, with a new perspective to understand business cycles.     

基于行为—结果—反馈的粤西北山区“十二五”高标准农田建设绩效评价及低效因子诊断

[目的]弥补现有绩效观的不足,提出并解析了基于行为—结果—反馈的土地整治绩效评价内涵,开展粤西北山区"十二五"高标准农田建设绩效评价及低效因子诊断。[方法]从实施行为、效益结果、调查反馈3个方面建立指标体系,采用熵权改进的TOPSIS法和障碍度模型量化评估绩效水平并诊断低效因子。[结果]粤西北山区各县市在组织实施、综合效益和调查反馈方面各有不足,"十二五"高标准农田建设绩效水平总体有待进一步提高,绩效评价结果具有显著的区域差异,罗定市绩效值最高,绩效水平为良好;英德市、蕉岭县、南雄市、仁化县的绩效水平为中级;郁南县、龙川县、始兴县、云安县的绩效水平为低级;对于粤西北山区大多数县(市),实施行为作为首位低效因子,对高标准农田建设绩效的贡献度最小。[结论]基于行为—结果—反馈的绩效观,采用熵权改进的TOPSIS法和障碍度模型的绩效评价,能够客观衡量研究区高标准农田建设绩效水平。增加田间道路建设、提高土地流转面积、加强专项工作经费落实对于提高粤西北山区高标准农田建设水平具有普适性。     

农地权益保障与农业转移人口市民化

研究目的：明晰农地权益对农业转移人口市民化的影响，进而揭示当前全国各地对农业转移人口农地权益保护状况。研究方法：基于Probit模型的实证分析。研究结果：（1）从全国范围来看，农业转移人口的农地权益只得到部分保障；（2）农地权益保障状况存在较大的地区差异，区域经济越发达，农地权益保障越完善；（3）农地权益只得到部分保障对推动农业转移人口向城市迁移起着促进作用，但却对农业转移人口市民化有着显著负面影响。研究结论：农地权益保障是农业转移人口市民化的重要影响因素，农地权益的不充分保障对农业转移人口市民化具有负面影响，而经济越不发达的地区这种影响越显著。