我国玉米价格与生猪价格的传导关系研究

现以2015年1月到2020年9月生猪价格和玉米价格的月度数据为研究对象,运用E-G协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法进行分析。研究结果表明,生猪价格和玉米价格存在长期正相关的均衡关系,生猪价格对玉米价格有明显的拉动作用;短期内,玉米价格和生猪价格的相互影响具有时滞性。长期来看,当生猪价格受到冲击时,对玉米价格的影响作用相对较小;当玉米价格受到冲击时,对生猪价格的影响作用较大。建议保障玉米和生猪的供给,引导供需平衡;完善信息共享机制,及时传递相关信息。     

中国生猪价格波动特征分析

使用2000—2009年中国生猪批发价格月度数据,分析了我国生猪批发价格运动的轨迹。研究结果表明:近年来我国生猪批发价格年度内震荡加剧且具有明显的季节性波动特征。并利用ARCH模型对生猪批发价格波动的动态过程进行了分析,发现滞后1期及滞后5期的生猪批发价格变动与当期价格变动的方向相同,而滞后2期的批发价格对当期价格有回调作用。     

生猪养殖规模化程度的省际差异及未来趋势*——基于13个生猪养殖优势省份的研究

［目的］2007年以来国家实施“一揽子”补贴政策，生猪养殖规模化程度显著提高，但也呈现出明显的规模差异和省际差异。［方法］基于相关统计数据，利用生猪规模养殖指数详细透视了生猪养殖优势省份规模养殖的发展历程及规模化特征。［结果］生猪规模养殖呈现向华北和东北地区富集的基本趋势，但目前生猪养殖规模化的层次仍较低； 吉林、黑龙江、山东属生猪规模养殖特快发展区，辽宁、江苏、河南和广东属于快速发展区，安徽、湖北、湖南、广西和四川属缓慢发展区，河北属约束发展区。［结论］在山东、江苏、河南和广东，重点推进年出栏50~100头的养猪场户向年出栏100头以上的养猪场户转化； 在黑龙江、吉林、辽宁应进一步鼓励年出栏100头以上的养猪场户适当的扩大规模； 而在河北，考虑产业布局和环境规制等因素，则有序退出生猪规模养殖。     

中国生猪产业扶持政策的满意度及敏感性分析

利用湖南省生猪养殖户的调查数据,对中国生猪产业扶持政策的总体满意度、分项满意度以及两者的相关关系进行了测算,并以Pearson相关系数衡量敏感性。结果显示:现阶段中国生猪产业扶持政策的总体满意度较高;在11项生猪产业扶持政策中,生猪产业扶持政策总体满意度的改变对生猪生产和市场统计监测制度满意度的变化最敏感,其次是屠宰环节病害猪无害化处理和重大疫病强制扑杀补偿。提出:要进一步提高中国生猪产业扶持政策的满意度,需要健全生猪价格监测预警机制、适度提高补贴标准、加大对生猪污染治理的投入和加快推出生猪期货。     

Investment Under Uncertainty and Dynamic Adjustment in the Finnish Pork Industry

A stochastic dual model of investment under uncertainty is used to investigate structural adjustment in the Finnish hog industry. Value function restrictions are found to be comparable to those in existing dual models assuming deterministic state variables. The model also allows for an asymmetry in investment response during capital expansion and contraction phases. Empirical results show that investments respond negatively to increased uncertainty and that labor adjusts more slowly during contraction phases than during expansions. Results on economies of size, uncertainty effects, and adjustment rigidities have important implications for hog industry response to Finland's entry into the EU.     

我国猪肉市场非对称价格传导机制研究

毛猪产业在我国经济生活中扮演着举足轻重的角色,为了捕捉生猪价格与猪肉价格之间的传导过程关系,本文使用非线性门槛回归(Threshold auto-regressive TAR)和动量门槛回归(Monmentum-Threshold auto-regressive,M-TAR)模型,检验2006年7月1日-2011年9月30日我国猪肉市场的传导过程是否存在一种非对称关系,并通过建立不对称调整项的误差修正模型,探讨我国生猪与猪肉零售价格之间的因果以及短期动态关系。实证结果发现我国生猪与猪肉零售市场之间存在负的非对称性的价格传导关系,这可能与我国猪肉市场受到高度政策干预和市场结构有关。     

中国生猪产业国际竞争力评价研究基于贸易与产业发展视角的比较分析

目的 中国是世界上最大的生猪生产国和消费国,科学评价中国生猪产业国际竞争力水平,对于提高生猪产业国际竞争力水平,促进生猪产业可持续发展,具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章基于产业发展视角构建了包含资源禀赋竞争力、生产竞争力、消费竞争力和贸易竞争力4个一级指标及13个相关二级指标的生猪产业国际综合竞争力评价指标体系,利用1995—2018年生猪产业相关数据,对中国、美国、德国、巴西、西班牙、俄罗斯等生产、消费和贸易大国生猪产业国际综合竞争力进行评价,并与传统的基于贸易视角的竞争力评价结果进行对比分析。结果 研究发现,基于贸易视角与产业发展视角的测算结果存在一定差距。基于贸易视角的测算结果显示,中国生猪产业缺乏竞争力,且竞争力仍在持续减弱。基于产业发展视角的测算结果显示,中国生猪产业具有一定竞争优势。其中,中国猪肉消费竞争力极强,显著拉升了中国生猪产业国际综合竞争力水平;生产竞争力和资源禀赋竞争力也具有一定优势;贸易竞争力处于劣势地位,明显拉低了中国生猪产业国际综合竞争力水平。结论 建议中国生猪产业充分发挥巨大的内需优势,提升生猪产业国际竞争水平,实现生猪产业高质量发展。进一步提高中国生猪种业创新能力,保障优良种猪供给;提高生猪生产技术效率与经济效率,提升生猪养殖场组织化、标准化、规模化水平;稳定生猪生产饲料供给;建立生猪产业风险防范机制。     

Total factor productivity change in hog production and Quebec's revenue insurance program

Quebec's hog industry is supported by a revenue insurance program that guarantees a minimum price, but it also faces strict environmental constraints. Under price volatility, risk-averse farms may contract their output enough to produce under increasing returns. We show that the subsidy and downside risk reduction effects of the revenue insurance program tend to stimulate output and increase the likelihood of production under increasing returns. Environmental constraints that raise the cost of manure management and limit areas under cultivation also increase the likelihood of decreasing returns. Scale efficiency and technical efficiency measures are obtained through a parametric decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) obtained from the estimation of an output distance function. As in hog studies pertaining to other countries, we found a TFP average annual growth of 5.2% between 2004 and 2012. Scale efficiency is much lower than in other countries, as per our prior about the program's distortions and environmental constraints. Integrating annual TFP gains into the setting of the minimum guaranteed price could reduce program costs by $12 million per year. About $70–80 million per year could be saved by investing in extension activities that would bring increase the level of technical efficiency of inefficient farms to the provincial average. A metatechnology frontier approach allowing for an endogenous input was also implemented to assess the robustness of the scale efficiency results.     

Backyard Hog Production Efficiency: Evidence from the Philippines*

This article investigates the economic efficiency and the factors associated with efficiency for a sample of 126 hog producers in the Philippines. The input‐oriented efficiency indices are computed and bootstrapped using data envelopment analysis. Econometric analysis of the factors influencing the efficiency indices are conducted using the Tobit model. Fixed capital does not influence the efficiency scores, whereas labor does negatively influence the efficiency indices. On average, technical efficiency is low, an indication that most households are not using the most efficient technology. Scale efficiency is fairly high but constrained by lack of operating capital and managerial skills. Technical efficiency is constrained by lack of access to credit and limited experience in hog production.