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1.
We show that highly liquid Exchange‐Traded Funds (ETFs), especially those that are more liquid than their underlying basket of securities (i.e., positive relative liquidity), are particularly attractive to investors. Using three definitions of liquidity, we find that relative liquidity predicts net fund flows, as well as inflows and outflows positively and significantly. We further document a liquidity clientele among institutional investors: (i) relative liquidity is significantly more important for short‐ than for long‐term investors; and (ii) relative liquidity is inversely related to investors’ average holding duration in the ETFs. These two findings provide evidence that relative liquidity encourages short‐term demand. 相似文献
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Prior work has examined how, in the pursuit of long‐term goals, past goal behavior influences present goal choices. Instead, the present work focuses on how anticipating future goal behavior, specifically future goal‐inconsistent behavior, influences present goal choices. For example, how anticipating overspending on an upcoming vacation influences current spending behavior. The authors propose that the effect of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choice is moderated by the perceived changeability of the future behavior. When future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as changeable, consumers tend to imagine it away, and it has no systematic effect on present goal choices. However, when future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as unchangeable, consumers accept it as a matter of fact, and systematic effects occur. Specifically, some consumers not only fail to buffer against future goal‐inconsistent behavior's negative consequences, but tend to exacerbate those consequences by increasing their goal‐inconsistent behavior in the present. Four studies examine this surprising behavior, using an individual difference (the response‐to‐failure scale) to identify when and for whom it occurs. The studies demonstrate the role of perceived changeability using various manipulations across multiple critical goal domains such as spending, eating, and academics. 相似文献
4.
Ana-Isabel Guerra 《Economic Systems Research》2018,30(3):313-322
The message of this research is that in the standard calibrated setting of Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) models, the welfare measures typically used to compare benchmark with counterfactuals are numéraire dependent. This evaluation bias affects the compensating variation and the Konüs index of cost of living. We show that the equivalent variation is neutral regarding the choice of value units in calibrated models but would be affected as well in uncalibrated CGE models. We illustrate with a simple example and propose an even simpler theoretical solution to overcome these biases; all that is required to have correct welfare estimates is to compensate normalizing with a suitable price index. This type of correction is necessary to overcome the sometimes blind implementation of welfare measures in numerical general equilibrium analysis. We show that the induced quantitative errors may be substantial providing biased welfare estimates and misleading results. 相似文献
5.
This article uses a multi-country global general equilibrium (GE) model to numerically simulate the effects of possible China–US trade wars. We introduce an endogenous trade imbalance structure with trade cost into the model which helps to explore both tariff and non-tariff trade war effects. Our simulation results show that China will be significantly hurt by the China–US trade war, but negative impacts are affordable. The US can gain under unilateral sanction measures to China, but will lose if China takes retaliation measures. Comparing the effects under mutual trade war, China will lose more than the US. Introducing non-tariff barrier trade wars will intensify the negative effects, and comparatively negative effects to China are larger than to the US. Mexico’s involvement in trade war with the US will strengthen the negative effects and comparatively hurt the US more. Under non-cooperative and cooperative Nash bargaining equilibrium, the US can gain more than China in trade war negotiation, which means the US has stronger bargaining power than China. Additionally, trade wars between China and the US will hurt most countries and the world especially in GDP and manufacturing employment, but benefit their welfare and trade. 相似文献
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In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility. 相似文献
7.
ZINEDDINE ALLA RAPHAEL A. ESPINOZA ATISH R. GHOSH 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2020,52(7):1755-1791
We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets. 相似文献
8.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(2):502-520
Managing the distribution of fuel in theater requires Army fuel planners to forecast demand at the strategic level to ensure that fuel will be in the right place, at the right time, and in the amounts needed. This work presents a simulation approach to forecasting that accounts for the structure of the supply chain network when aggregating the demand of war fighters across the theater over the forecasting horizon. The resulting empirical distribution of demand at the theater entry point enables planners to identify forecast characteristics that impact their planning process, including the amplitudes and temporal positions of peaks in demand, and the estimated lead time to the point of use. Experimentation indicates that the forecasts are sensitive to the pattern of war fighter demand, the precise structure of the in-theater supply chain network, and the constraints and uncertainty present in the network, all of which are critical planning considerations. 相似文献
9.
Using an extended LHARG model proposed by Majewski et al. (2015, J Econ, 187, 521–531), we derive the closed-form pricing formulas for both the Chicago Board Options Exchange VIX term structure and VIX futures with different maturities. Our empirical results suggest that the quarterly and yearly components of lagged realized volatility should be added into the model to capture the long-term volatility dynamics. By using the realized volatility based on high-frequency data, the proposed model provides superior pricing performance compared with the classic Heston–Nandi GARCH model under a variance-dependent pricing kernel, both in-sample and out-of-sample. The improvement is more pronounced during high volatility periods. 相似文献
10.
This paper constructs three-sector general equilibrium models to investigate how public pollution abatement affects the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. In the basic model with full employment, we find that a higher degree of public pollution abatement will decrease the wage inequality if the intensity of skilled labor in the urban skilled sector is sufficiently large and expand or narrow down the wage gap if this intensity is sufficiently small. In the extended models, we consider other four cases, and obtain the results similar or dissimilar to that of the basic model. 相似文献