实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Effects of price sorting display on extreme option choice aversion: The role of ease of comparison in multiple option displays

Due to the popularity of online travel agency (OTA) booking platforms, OTAs display diverse information, including features of products, on their websites. Based on choice architecture literature, this study aimed to examine the effect of product quality and price sorting (vs. non-sorting) on extreme option choice aversion and identify the moderating effect of displays that made it difficult to read information. The results of a series of four experimental studies (total n = 2838 online panel members) demonstrated that the tendency to choose the non-extreme or middle-attributed options was stronger when quality and price were displayed sorted (vs. non-sorted). It was theorized that easy comparison of multiple options leads to decision-making. The positive effect of quality and price sorting on extreme option choice aversion was significantly reduced when customers had difficulty reading the displayed information.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

转让方社会责任与主并方企业价值——主并方社会责任的中介效应检验

以并购事件为联结，设置企业社会责任、企业价值等主要变量，实证检验转让方企业社会责任与并购完成后主并方企业社会责任之间、主并方企业社会责任与其企业价值之间、并购前转让方企业社会责任与并购后主并方企业价值之间等三对关系。结果显示，上述三对关系均为显著正相关，且在并购前转让方企业社会责任与并购完成后主并方企业价值之间的关系中，并购完成当年主并方企业社会责任起到中介作用。     

考虑声誉效应的科技服务业与制造企业合作创新行为策略分析

采用博弈论的方法，考虑声誉效应对博弈双方效用、策略的影响，建立信号博弈模型，并分析精炼贝叶斯均衡，证明声誉水平、对声誉的态度以及技术市场价值的高低是影响建立合作关系的重要因素。探讨双方建立合作关系的行为策略，提出实现合作达成双赢的建议。     

Exploring pilgrim satisfaction on facilities for religious events: a case of Ratha Yatra at Puri

This article relates to the annual Ratha Yatra festival at Puri, India, and aims at quantifying the pilgrim perception of the event on three major aspects of every facility – adequacy, quality, and signage – to measure their satisfaction. A questionnaire survey (N?=?680) was conducted, from which a five-factor structure was extracted using exploratory principal component analysis, further examined through partial least squares-path modeling. The final model was found to have significant positive effects on three factors that comprised adequacy and quality of physiological needs, quality of ancillary facilities, and signage. The outcome may be utilized in planning other pilgrim events for achieving a higher pilgrim satisfaction score.     

普惠金融发展的地区差异、收敛性及影响因素研究*——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

本文利用2005—2016年省级面板数据，对我国各地区普惠金融发展水平进行测度，并在此基础上探讨其收敛性及影响因素。结果表明：（1）我国普惠金融发展水平在考察期内总体偏低，并且呈现出显著的地区差异性。（2）绝对β收敛在全国、中部和西部均存在，而东部不存在；条件β收敛在全国、东部和西部均存在，而中部不存在。（3）政府干预程度、市场化程度、人力资本质量、非正规金融以及外商直接投资对普惠金融发展均具有重要的影响。     

The exchange regime and trade balance in Turkey

Over the last 15 years, high trade deficits have become a source of external vulnerability for the relatively stabilized Turkish economy. This corresponds to the period where authorities have been following a floating exchange rate regime. Thus, this study aims to empirically show whether the adopted exchange rate regime has an impact on the trade balance for the period of 1987 Q1 to 2015 Q2. Estimation results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance under both fixed and floating regimes in Turkey, but there is no evidence for the J-curve hypothesis.     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.