公共危机中的政府协作治理能力*——中国省级新冠肺炎疫情防控的文本分析

协作治理，是应对公共危机形成的一种新的治理形式。本文使用文本分析法考察了2020年2月末各省区市政府在本次疫情应对政策中协作治理能力的四种关键机制：促进式顶层领导、开放式参与路径、明确的协作职责、透明信息披露的运用情形及运用效果。研究结果显示，30个省区市都在运用协作治理机制抗击疫情、恢复经济。四种机制的运用存在差异，整体上沿海地区运用协作治理机制更充分。进一步的分析显示政府协作治理机制的运用显著促进了各省份疫情中第三产业的经济恢复水平，原因在于其改善了省级层面经济恢复的市场环境。本文的研究结论表明，强大的政府协作治理机制有助于社会快速有效应对公共危机，也是优化市场环境的政府治理新途径。本文为政府协作治理的机制构成与实际效果提供了重要补充，在公共危机应对的背景下发展了政府治理的理论内容，为公共危机情境下政府职能转变思路提供了参考。     

Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

基于AHP-TOPSIS模型的京津冀家政服务人力资源供给质量评价研究

依托已有的研究成果构建了家政服务人力资源供给质量评价指标体系,利用AHP-TOPSIS模型对京津冀家政服务人力资源供给质量进行了评价和排名,并使用障碍度模型分析了员工制、准员工制、培训学校、中介制四种类型家政机构人力资源供给质量的关键制约因素,在此基础上,给出了不同类型家政机构人力资源供给质量改善的针对性建议,为家政服务人力资源供给质量的改善提供参考依据。     

基于联合分析法的城市住区绿地雨水设施 居民喜好度研究

城市化进程带来如城市内涝等诸多环境问题，使得 海绵城市和低影响开发成为热点。城市住区绿地作为城市绿地 的一个重要类型，既是住区居民重要的景观游憩场地，也是海 绵城市低影响开发的重要海绵体，是兼具径流绩效和景观绩效 等综合绩效的复合设施。如何让雨水设施在发挥径流绩效的同 时兼具满足居民需求的景观绩效，是目前相关研究的难点和热 点。居民喜好度的研究是住区绿地雨水设施景观绩效优化提升 的重要方法之一。通过联合分析法，遴选雨水收集、雨水转 输和雨水调蓄3个环节的源头减排雨水设施，模拟江南住区中 心绿地雨水设施场景收集居民评价，进行不同居民群体的设 施喜好度效用值相关性统计和住区绿地不同类型雨水设施效 用值及相对重要性分析。并通过走访、文献查阅解析所得数 据，为住区绿地雨水设施景观绩效提升和低影响开发设计提 供启示和借鉴。     

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与成熟度的影响路径

重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中,公众是重要的参与主体,个体间生活环境、知识背景及心理素质的差异性会直接影响稳评结果。公众参与成熟度是公众参与的衡量要素,由能力成熟度和心理成熟度两个方面构成。从能力与心理两个角度设计调查问卷,运用结构方程模型,探究内部影响路径。结果表明,公众参与心理成熟度直接影响能力成熟度,而能力成熟度又通过参与意愿影响着心理成熟度,两者间存在相互影响的关系。政府可以通过开展道德素质教育,改善公众参与动机,以提高公众参与心理成熟度及能力成熟度,最终整体提高公众参与成熟度,保证稳评工作的质量,提升重大水利工程项目决策科学性。     

水生态系统服务供需视角下的水网乡村 适应性规划策略——以吴江张鸭荡片区为例

苏南乡村地区一直是中国乡村建设的先行区域，特殊的纵横交错的水网结构构成了一个错综复杂的系统，呈现出其他地区不具有的复杂性和生态特殊性。随着城镇的扩张，乡村的发展建设使其水网空间的平衡发展面临极大的挑战。传统单一静态的规划方法逐渐显示出无法适应经济、社会等发展要求的缺陷。苏南乡村地区以水为核心，从水生态系统服务供需关系的视角下探究水网乡村的适应性规划策略更加适应当前的乡村现状和需求。以传统水网乡村空间形态转译为基础，建立水生态系统供需服务评估体系，在评估水生态系统服务供需能力的基础上，分析供需分异模式及供需矛盾。从构建乡村水域空间生态格局、乡村水域空间功能分区规划，以及乡村水域空间多情景预判3个方面，提出苏南水网乡村的适应性规划策略，并为水网乡村的生态实践提出新思路。     

Circular business model implementation: A capability development case study from the manufacturing industry

Circular business models (CBMs) have huge potential to deliver economic, social, and environmental benefits, but CBMs have yet to be implemented widely in industrial settings. One reason is that they are often presented as one-size-fits-all solutions, but this is misplaced because product-specific criteria and company capabilities determine the correct choice and implementation of CBMs. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate how CBM selection and capability development facilitates the implementation of CBMs. For this purpose, we have adopted a qualitative research approach and undertaken 25 explorative interviews in three large Swedish manufacturing companies. In this paper, a CBM implementation framework consisting of two parts has been developed. The first part addresses the choice of the appropriate CBM based on tactical configurations. The second part provides a capability development path by explicating underlying routines that need to be progressively developed in order to move smoothly to more advanced CBMs.     

突发公共事件对电影行业影响的量化研究

人工收集和整理2012—2018年在中国市场上映的首轮院线电影信息数据，构建电影需求的嵌套logit回归模型，以新冠肺炎疫情为准自然实验，来量化突发公共事件对电影行业复产复工的影响。结果显示：第一，关于上映时间选择，在恢复营业后，如果所有因为疫情尚未上映的电影选择顺延上映能有效避免过度竞争的局面。第二，关于上映节奏控制，控制好未定档电影的上映节奏，保持适当的竞争能促进经济效益提升。其中，从11月份开始以每周两部的频率上映未定档电影的经济效益最佳。第三，关于上映方式选择，与线下播放相比，疫情期间选择线上播放能及时收回成本并有利于经济收益最大化的实现。研究结论为电影行业制定复产复工策略提供依据，为未来应对突发公共卫生事件提供参考。     

Changing patterns of transfers in Slovenia in the last three decades: transition from a socialist economy to a market economy

Rapid population ageing increases interest in economic flows across ages and intergenerational transfers in general. This article uses the National Transfer Accounts methodology to measure consumption and production at each age, and how the difference between consumption and production is financed through (private and public) transfers and the interaction with assets, i.e. ‘asset-based reallocations’. During working ages, people earn more than they consume and with the surplus they finance the deficit of the young and old generations who consume more than they produce. Such a pattern of economic dependency is universal across countries and across time, but huge differences exist in the ages at which individuals produce more than they consume and vice versa. Moreover, the importance of private and public transfers and asset-based reallocations varies across countries and times. In the last three decades, life expectancy at birth in Slovenia increased by 9.3 years, while the age span in which production exceeds consumption narrowed rather than increased. Child dependents are predominantly financed by private transfers, whereas the elderly mainly rely on public transfers. Young and old individuals increasingly rely on public transfers. Together with rapid population ageing, this is likely to jeopardise the public finance system in the future.     

Exploring the motivations to use online meal delivery platforms: Before and during quarantine

Online meal delivery platforms (OMDPs), like UberEats, have received more attention since quarantine was established to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The research into antecedents of satisfaction and continuous usage intention for OMDPs, in general, is under researched. The current study compared the antecedents of satisfaction before quarantine to the antecedents during quarantine through the lens of Expectation-Confirmation Theory. Through multiple regression analyses, the researchers found that before quarantine, sharing economy ethos, price-value, food quality, ease of use and confirmation of beliefs had a significant impact on satisfaction while during quarantine, food quality, service speed, ease of use, and confirmation of beliefs were significant. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.