Forecasting turning points in tourism growth

Tourism demand exhibits growth cycles, and it is important to forecast turning points in these growth cycles to minimise risks to destination management. This study estimates logistic models of Hong Kong tourism demand, which are then used to generate both short- and long-term forecasts of tourism growth. The performance of the models is evaluated using the quadratic probability score and hit rates. The results show that the ways in which this information is used are crucial to the models’ predictive power. Further, we investigate whether combining probability forecasts can improve predictive accuracy, and find that combination approaches, especially nonlinear combination approaches, are sensitive to the quality of forecasts in the pool. In addition, model screening can improve forecasting performance.     

基于遥感蒸散数据的农田灌溉水平评价和设施建设分区研究

[目的]利用遥感蒸散数据快速评价农田年度灌溉水平,及时获取基本农田建设成效,为农田灌溉设施分区建设提供参考。[方法]以黑龙江省海伦市为研究区,MOD16蒸散产品为数据源,计算有效灌溉量、灌溉需水量和作物缺水指数,分别对研究区2013年的旱地和水田灌溉水平进行评价,并将评价结果与农田水利设施作用分值图进行叠加分析,在此基础上进行基本农田灌溉设施建设分区。[结果]2013年海伦市耕地灌溉水平整体较高,区域间建设水平差别较大,可划分为4个级别。其中1级和2级灌溉水平的地块面积比例可达78.06%,地域分布上看,北部、西部、中部乡镇灌溉水平较高,东南部乡镇灌溉水平相对较低。叠加得出8种组合类型,分为设施修建型、设施提升型和设施维护型3种分区类型。[结论]研究为高标准农田建设提供了更详细的农田灌溉水平评价方法和更具差别化的农田灌溉设施建设策略。     

Me,my family or the public good? Do inter‐role conflicts of consumer–citizens reduce their ethical consumption behaviour?

This article examines role stress, especially inter‐role conflicts (IRC), against the background of the consumer–citizen duality. It tests whether consumer–citizen conflicts impair the purchase of ethical food in terms of the ethical intention–behaviour gap. Furthermore, this study examines the potential of eustress arising from citizen–consumer conflicts to enhance actual ethical purchases. Additionally, determinants and moderating conditions of both IRC are tested. A combination of observations of actual purchase behaviour and survey data in a field setting is used to gain insights into role conflict formation and manifestation, arising from the desire to fulfil the demands of two opposing roles: consumer and citizen. The quantitative data are analysed with structural equation modelling to test the hypothesized coherencies simultaneously. Results indicate that stress arises similarly from both IRC. While a positive impact of eustress on purchase behaviour was absent, consumer–citizen role conflicts impede the actual purchase of ethical groceries. The data show that this role conflict derives, for example, from economic demands sent by the consumer role set when a person has ethical buying intentions. Additionally, the identification with the consumer role further amplifies this conflict. The data indicate that consumers instead of citizens should be empowered by marketing practitioners and policy makers, for example by reducing the perception of stress by communicating positive outcomes referring to relevant consumer role set members (e.g., added value for children from purchasing ethically) to stimulate problem–focused coping.     

Does gender matter? The association between gender and the use of management control systems and performance measures

Literature shows that female (male) managers are more likely to adopt a transformational (transactional) leadership style, as well as make greater (lesser) use of information for decision-making. We draw on this research to investigate whether gender is related to a manager's use of management control systems (MCS) and performance measures. We surveyed the head of school of all schools across all Australian public universities. Our results indicate that females use MCS in an interactive manner to a greater extent than their male counterparts and make greater use of non-financial performance measures. We conclude with contributions to theory and practice.     

Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences

The spatial spillovers of housing prices across regions are well documented by a large body of previous studies. This paper tries to investigate the dynamic (time-varying) evolution of spatial interactions and their underlying driving factors intensively. Using a recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, this paper examines the time-varying spatial spillovers of housing prices in 70 major and median cities of China from 2006 to 2019. We find that the GAS model can well capture the impact of time-varying critical events of Chinese real estate market on the whole. However, different regions display heterogeneous variation patterns over time. Further investigation shows that inter-regional labor mobility and trades are two major channels, accounting for 1.25% and 2.58% of the monthly standard deviations of spatial spillover effects from one city to another, respectively. We also characterize and distinguish between three time-varying patterns of spatial spillovers within different regions of China. Our results shed lights on the understanding of spatial spillovers across regional real estate markets across different city network structures within China.     

The impact of international diversification on credit scores: Evidence from the UK

Despite the great deal of previous research into international diversification, we know little about the impact of international diversification on firms’ credit scores. Drawing upon the resource-based view and transaction cost economics, we examine the relationship between international diversification and credit scores by using a large sample of 6,557 UK firms between 2016 and 2017. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between international diversification and firms’ credit scores, indicating that the effect of international diversification on credit scores is initially positive but becomes negative with over-diversification. In addition, we find that R&D intensity positively moderates the relationship between international diversification and credit score, implying that the credit scores of highly diversified firms improve as they increase their investment in R&D. Further analysis suggests that a firm’s credit score becomes less dependent on international diversification for large firms, firms in concentrated industries, firms in the manufacturing sector, and firms distant from key metropolitan areas, such as London.     

Top management: the missing stakeholder in the HRM literature

Abstract

Despite the significant influence that top management exerts on different aspects of people management, it remains the missing stakeholder in the HRM literature. In this paper, we take stock of previous research, and conclude that it is scarce and lacks consolidation. On the basis of our findings, but also thinking in terms of what is still missing, we develop a conceptual framework that may guide further research, advocating for the need to consider co-evolutionary approaches in an attempt to integrate selection and adaptation perspectives, as well as multi-level and multi-actor factors. Future work should systematically address and distinguish top management characteristics from top management agency and link these more clearly to a diversity of HRM dimensions. By doing so, scholars will help to firmly incorporate the role of top management in the research agenda of HRM and pursue different avenues that can be scientifically sound as well as practically relevant.     

Economic evaluation of human urinary kallindinogenase for patients with acute ischemic stroke in China

Objectives: In China, both human urinary kallindinogenase (HUK) and 3-n-butylphthalide (NBP) are recommended for clinical use to improve cerebral blood circulation during an acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The objective was to evaluate the economic value of HUK vs NBP for patients with AIS from a Chinese payer’s perspective.

Methods: An economic evaluation based on data of patients who have been treated with either HUK (n?=?488) or NBP (n?=?885) from a prospective, phase IV, multi-center, clinical registry study (Chinese Acute Ischemic Stroke Treatment Outcome Registry, CASTOR) was conducted to analyze the cost and effectiveness of HUK vs NBP for AIS in China. Before the analysis, the patients were matched using propensity score. Both a cost-minimization analysis and a cost-effectiveness analysis were conducted to compare the matched pairs. A bootstrapping exercise was conducted for the matched arms to demonstrate the probability of one intervention being cost-effective over another for a given willingness-to-pay for an extra quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

Results: After propensity score matching, 463 pairs were matched. The overall medical cost in the HUK arm is USD 2,701.20, while the NBP arm is USD 3,436.83, indicating HUK is preferred with cost-minimization analysis. Although the QALY gained in the HUK arm (0.77176) compared with the NBP arm (0.76831) is statistically insignificant (p?=?.4862), the cost-effectiveness analysis as exploratory analysis found that, compared with NBP, HUK is a cost-saving strategy with the lower costs of USD 735.63 and greater QALYs gained of 0.00345. Among the 5,000 bootstrapping replications, 100% indicates that HUK is cost-effective compared with NBP under a 1-time-GDP threshold; and 97.12% indicates the same under a 3-time-GDP threshold.

Conclusion: This economic evaluation study indicates that administrating HUK is a cost-saving therapy compared with NBP for managing blood flow during AIS in the Chinese setting.     

Does managerial ability matter for cross-border M&As: Evidence from Chinese listed firms

With the deepening of economic globalization, cross-border mergers and acquisitions (CBMAs) are increasingly becoming an important choice of transnational investment, and more Chinese firms are becoming involved in them. However, the success rate of CBMAs for firms in China seems to be lower than that for firms in other countries. Using data on the CBMA deals initiated by Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2003 to 2018, we examine the association between managerial ability and the likelihood of completing CBMAs. The empirical results show that the average impact of managerial ability on the likelihood of completing CBMAs is positive. Furthermore, by taking heterogeneity of the ownership structure into account, we find that the positive effect of managerial ability is significant only for non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover, the results from the mediation model show that relaxing financing constraints is a possible channel by which managerial ability affects the likelihood of completing CBMAs. Our results are robust to various model specifications.     

Combining prediction intervals in the M4 competition

The 2018 M4 Forecasting Competition was the first M Competition to elicit prediction intervals in addition to point estimates. We take a closer look at the twenty valid interval submissions by examining the calibration and accuracy of the prediction intervals and evaluating their performances over different time horizons. Overall, the submissions fail to estimate the uncertainty properly. Importantly, we investigate the benefits of interval combination using six recently-proposed heuristics that can be applied prior to learning about the realizations of the quantities. Our results suggest that interval aggregation offers improvements in terms of both calibration and accuracy. While averaging interval endpoints maintains its practical appeal as being simple to implement and performs quite well when data sets are large, the median and the interior trimmed average are found to be robust aggregators for the prediction interval submissions across all 100,000 time series.