A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

Estimation of the mean in ranked set sampling with non responses

The estimation of the population mean when ranked set sampling [rss] is used for selecting the sample and non responses [nr] are present, is studied. The nr stratum is sub sampled using simple random sampling with replacement. Two strategies are analyzed. One of them is based on the selection of a sub sample from the nr in each cycle. The other uses sub samples selected among the nr in each rank.  The accuracy of the proposed estimators is characterized by the corresponding expected variances. Simulations and real life data are used for analyzing the behavior of them. Acknowledgements: This paper was developed partially during the visit of the author to Université des Antilles et Gouyane. The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful suggestions of the referees and thanks the support of DAAD for visiting Humboldt University where a version of the paper version was made.     

Stochastic Technology, Risk Preferences, and Adoption of Site-Specific Technologies

A model of farmer decision making is developed to determine the extent to which uncertainties about soil fertility and weather affect the value of site-specific technologies (SSTs) using jointly estimated risk and technology parameters. Uncertainty can lead risk-averse farmers to apply more fertilizers and generate more pollution than in the certainty case. Ignoring uncertainty and risk aversion would overestimate the economic and environmental benefits of SSTs and underestimate the subsidy required to induce adoption. Accounting for uncertainties and risk preferences might explain the low observed adoption rates of SSTs. Improving the accuracy of SSTs would increase the incentives for adoption.     

On efficiency of the ratio estimator

Summary The exact mean square error for the ratio estimator of a finite population total based on simple random sampling without replacement is shown to have an expected value less than that of the variance of the ratio estimator based on Midzuno’s scheme, under a usual super-population model.     

Robustness issues in multilevel regression analysis

A multilevel problem concerns a population with a hierarchical structure. A sample from such a population can be described as a multistage sample. First, a sample of higher level units is drawn (e.g. schools or organizations), and next a sample of the sub‐units from the available units (e.g. pupils in schools or employees in organizations). In such samples, the individual observations are in general not completely independent. Multilevel analysis software accounts for this dependence and in recent years these programs have been widely accepted. Two problems that occur in the practice of multilevel modeling will be discussed. The first problem is the choice of the sample sizes at the different levels. What are sufficient sample sizes for accurate estimation? The second problem is the normality assumption of the level‐2 error distribution. When one wants to conduct tests of significance, the errors need to be normally distributed. What happens when this is not the case? In this paper, simulation studies are used to answer both questions. With respect to the first question, the results show that a small sample size at level two (meaning a sample of 50 or less) leads to biased estimates of the second‐level standard errors. The answer to the second question is that only the standard errors for the random effects at the second level are highly inaccurate if the distributional assumptions concerning the level‐2 errors are not fulfilled. Robust standard errors turn out to be more reliable than the asymptotic standard errors based on maximum likelihood.     

A two-stage stratified Warner’s randomized response model using optimal allocation

This paper applies Kim and Wardes (2004) stratified Warners randomized response model to Mangat and Singhs (1990) two-stage randomized response model. The proposed stratified randomized response model has an optimal allocation and a large gain in precision. Hence, the estimator based on the proposed method is more efficient than Kim and Wardes (2004) and Mangat and Singhs (1990) estimators under the conditions presented in both the case of completely truthful reporting and that of not completely truthful reporting by the respondents.     

城市交通与城市空间结构演变

通过回顾城市交通和城市空间结构的发展演变过程,研究通过城市交通引导城市空间结构健康"生长"的有效途径,提出通过公共交通引导城市发展的TOD模式,以及适合中国特色的和谐城市形态和城市交通.     

绿色普惠金融与乡村振兴耦合能否助推经济发展？

基于2011—2020年中国30个省（自治区、直辖市）的相关面板数据,利用耦合协调度和空间回归模型,分析绿色普惠金融与乡村振兴耦合协调发展水平并进一步探讨其对经济的助推作用。结果表明：绿色普惠金融与乡村振兴之间存在耦合协调机制;无论在经济空间还是地理空间中,某一地区的耦合协调度均可以促进本地及周边地区经济增长;在东、中、西部区域中,耦合协调度的经济效应具备空间外溢性和地区异质性。基于此,提出在全国范围内整体提升耦合协调度、在不同区域内立足区域实际进行精准施策的建议。     

溢出效应、边界选择与产业集聚测度

产业集聚程度的测度结果受所选产业加总水平与地理单元大小的影响,后者应以集聚过程中溢出效应的产业边界与空间边界为基础。当前产业集聚测度研究普遍存在产业加总水平与地理单元选择过大的问题,本文试图研究在这种情况下测度结果是否存在偏差,偏差的系统性、方向、大小和影响因素,以及有偏的测度结果对集聚经济研究的影响等。结果表明,超出空间边界或产业边界的测度结果将显著偏低,并导致对集聚经济的低估;按省测度的区位基尼系数比按市测度平均低了近40%,两位数产业的区位基尼系数通常低于其所含三位数产业的区位基尼系数的均值,甚至最低值。     

A Global Ex-vessel Fish Price Database: Construction and Applications

Synopsis We describe the first effort at creating a global ex-vessel fish price database, which is required for understanding the economic behavior of participants in the world’s fisheries. We demonstrate potential applications of the database by linking it to a spatially defined catch database, which makes it possible to attach landed values to species in both time and space. This is the first database available publicly where interested members of the public, researchers and managers can easily find and access ex-vessel prices of the world’s major commercial fish species. Preliminary results indicate that the average real price of a number of species have declined between 1950 and 2002. The estimated landed value of fish globally, in year 2000 dollars, was about US$24 billion in 1950. It increased steadily to about US$90 billion in the early 1970s, reached a peak of US$100 billion at the end of the 1980s, and declined to about US$80 billion in 2000. The top 15 fishing countries cumulatively account for 79% of total real landed value, with Japan leading, even though the value of its landings has been declining.