水资源管理的供给侧结构性改革研究

根据供给侧结构性改革的背景和基本内涵,对水资源供给侧结构性改革的内涵进行研究,提出了狭义和广义的水资源供给侧结构性改革的内容。在分析水资源需求新形势的基础上,提出了水资源供给侧结构性改革的要求。根据水循环理论提出了水资源管理是推动水资源供给侧结构性改革的重要抓手,并在最严格水资源管理制度的基础上,提出了符合水资源供给侧结构性改革要求的水资源管理制度。     

基于遥感蒸散数据的农田灌溉水平评价和设施建设分区研究

[目的]利用遥感蒸散数据快速评价农田年度灌溉水平,及时获取基本农田建设成效,为农田灌溉设施分区建设提供参考。[方法]以黑龙江省海伦市为研究区,MOD16蒸散产品为数据源,计算有效灌溉量、灌溉需水量和作物缺水指数,分别对研究区2013年的旱地和水田灌溉水平进行评价,并将评价结果与农田水利设施作用分值图进行叠加分析,在此基础上进行基本农田灌溉设施建设分区。[结果]2013年海伦市耕地灌溉水平整体较高,区域间建设水平差别较大,可划分为4个级别。其中1级和2级灌溉水平的地块面积比例可达78.06%,地域分布上看,北部、西部、中部乡镇灌溉水平较高,东南部乡镇灌溉水平相对较低。叠加得出8种组合类型,分为设施修建型、设施提升型和设施维护型3种分区类型。[结论]研究为高标准农田建设提供了更详细的农田灌溉水平评价方法和更具差别化的农田灌溉设施建设策略。     

SHIRKING,STANDARDS AND THE PROBABILITY OF DETECTION

By relaxing the common efficiency wage assumption of exogenous shirking detection probabilities, we demonstrate how standards and efficiency wages are related. In a more general setting where the probability of detection depends upon the equilibrium effort level of non‐shirkers, we show that the uniformly positive (negative) supply‐side relationship between wages (unemployment insurance) and effort is no longer guaranteed. Profit maximization on the part of the firm, however, ensures that effort will depend positively (negatively) on wages (unemployment insurance) in equilibrium.     

政策契合、资源整合与创业能力

当前，我国经济发展进入新常态，高层次科技人才成为区域经济发展中科技创新创业的生力军。高层次科技人才创业能力高低成为决定其创业成功与否的关键因素。运用扎根理论对3位高层次科技人才创业案例进行研究，最终构建了高层次科技人才创业能力提升路径理论模型。高层次科技人才创业可通过契合区级政府人才政策获取政策支持，将自身创业资源与政策资源有效整合，从而大幅提升自身创业能力。     

水源地突发水污染政府应急预留水量需求预测

近年来,随着工业化和产业化的快速发展,水源地突发水污染事件频发。为应对紧急情况下的水资源非常规需求,保障经济社会稳定发展,政府需要安排一部分应急预留水量。如何合理预测政府应急预留水量的规模是一个值得探讨的课题。提出了一种基于案例推理技术的政府应急预留水量需求预测方法,具体思路是:借助于案例库,利用主成分分析法从众多影响水源地突发水污染事件的因素中提取出两两不相关的因子,以此作为案例的特征属性,基于加权曼哈顿距离测算相似度,依此得到匹配案例,进而测算政府应急预留水量。以太湖流域常州地区水源地为例,进行政府预留水量需求量的预测与分析。该方法可以为政府应急预留水量的配置、储备等提供相关理论知识。     

Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.     

关于加快农田水利供给侧改革的几点思考

我国灌溉面积位居世界第一,主要矛盾由总量不足转变为结构性矛盾,深入推进供给侧结构性改革提上议程。针对存在的主要结构性矛盾,研究提出系统解决方案,即调整结构、去除库存、提升品质、降低成本、补齐短板。调整结构重点是严格落实"以水定地",着力以水资源、水生态、水环境承载能力倒逼灌溉面积调整;去除库存重点是依法实施"僵尸"工程降等报废,及时办理注销登记;提升品质重点是大力发展高效节水灌溉,提升灌溉服务质量;降低成本重点是深化国有灌区管理体制改革,创新"最后一公里"管理模式;补齐短板重点是坚持统分结合、重点在统的原则推进农田水利产权改革,深化农业水价综合改革,建立准确补贴机制。     

在学懂弄通做实党的十九大精神上下功夫扎实推进水利供给侧结构性改革

从适应世界供给体系加快调整优化、解决我国新时代主要矛盾和开创中国特色水利现代化新局面等3个方面分析了新时代深化供给侧结构性改革的新形势;从供给质量、供给效率和发展动力等角度提出了新时代水利供给侧结构性改革的主攻方向;从不断健全水利基础设施网络、积极实施国家节水行动、全面推行河长制、大力推进水生态文明建设、深化重点领域改革、依法治水和科技兴水等6个方面提出了全面落实新时代水利供给侧结构性改革的新任务。     

The empowerment expectation–perception gap: An examination of three alternative models

Previous empowerment research has focused on subordinate perceptions of empowering leadership and its outcomes. Met‐expectations theory suggests that subordinate expectations of leader behaviours are essential in forming their a posteriori evaluations. To address the lack of investigation of individual expectations in the empowerment literature, in this study, we explore how subordinates' empowerment expectations and perceptions combine to influence their job satisfaction and psychological empowerment based on three alternative, theoretically derived met‐expectation models, namely, the disconfirmation model, the ideal‐point model, and the experiences‐only model. The results of a 2‐stage study of 114 respondents indicate that employees are more satisfied with their work when perceived empowerment exceeds expectations. However, both empowerment perceptions and expectations positively contribute to higher psychological empowerment. We then discuss implications and directions for future research.