The monetary policy dilemma: Will interest rates have to rise?

UK interest rates are now at their lowest level for more than two decades, and the government is hoping that interest rates can be kept at a low and sustainable level comparable to the 1960s. Indeed, some commentators are calling for still lower interest rates to offset the risk that the £12bn tax increases and cuts in government spending that will come into effect in the next financial year will lead to stagnant consumer spending and a stalled recovery. Against this must be weighed the risk that the recent very good run of inflation figures will prove temporary. Both headline and underlying inflation will be pushed up by indirect tax increases and there is the possibility that wages will follow too, as employees seek to maintain their living standards in a tightening labour market. That risk would point to a much more cautious monetary policy stance and the possibility that the government may need to raise rates from their present level if it is to achieve its inflation objective. The Chancellor faces a clear dilemma. In this Viewpoint, we assess the evidence available to guide him in his decisions and draw out the implications for the future path of interest rates.     

MOTIVATING RECYCLING: A MARGINAL COST ANALYSIS

Areas considering alternative house-to-house recycling programs as a means of diverting material from landfills can determine the most efficient choice by comparing programs' marginal costs with diversion's marginal benefits. This paper describes a controlled field experiment that observed individual household recycling habits over a six-month period. The experiment monitored the quantity of material that households recycled under increasingly more convenient (and increasingly more costly) programs. The analysis here uses a Tobit model to determine how the quantity of material diverted varies as a function of convenience factors and demographic characteristics. The analysis compares the value of the expected marginal increase in diversion to the marginal cost of increasing recycling convenience to determine the efficient level of convenience for an area's recycling program.     

The Neutrality of the Resource Rent Tax

Although less distorting than conventional royalties and income tax, the resource rent tax is strictly neutral only if the interest rate at which losses are carried forward relates correctly to the discount rate employed by investors in project evaluation. Thus it is possible in principle to design a resource rent tax that is strictly neutral only if parameters are set independently for each minerals investment. Such attempts to tailor parameters to each investment would make great demands on information and would increase business uncertainty. The paper suggests expedients to reduce the costs of non-neutrality when resource rent tax is applied with parameters that are of general application and discusses their use in Australia.     

TRADE OPENNESS: AN AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE

Australia's external trade is relatively low compared with the size of its economy. Indeed, Australia's openness ratio (exports plus imports as a proportion of GDP) in 2002 was the third-lowest among the 30 OECD countries. This paper seeks to understand Australia's low openness by analysing the empirical determinants of aggregate country trade. We present an equation for country openness which explains a substantial amount of the cross-country variation. The most important explanators of openness are population and a measure of distance to potential trade partners. Countries with larger populations trade less, as do countries that are relatively more remote. Furthermore, after controlling for trade policy there is little evidence of a positive correlation between openness and economic development. The openness equation suggests that Australia's level of trade is relatively close to what would be expected. The most important factors in explaining Australia's low openness ratio are its large geographic size and distance to the rest of the world.     

The Effect of Government Regulations on Personal Loan Markets: A Tobit Estimation of a Microeconomic Model

The purpose of this paper is to analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of selected government regulations on a high-risk personal loan market. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on a loosely specified theory and then tested this theory with statewide aggregate data, our analysis is based on a more tightly specified model for individual loans which is then tested using statewide disaggregated data. The empirical results indicate that the regulatory effects are not only significant but consistent with our theoretical microeconomic model.     

Monetary Targeting: The International Experience*

This paper examines the experience of nine industrial countries with monetary targeting. The paper suggests that monetary targets were adopted as a tactical response to a particular economic situation, not as monetary rules. Other objectives were given precedence over targets when thought desirable. Most countries changed the targeted aggregate, and two dropped targets altogether. While inflation fell in most countries, the extent to which this was due to the pursuit of monetary targets is unclear. The place of monetary aggregates in many countries now appears to be as one among a number of indicators considered by the authorities in the setting of monetary policy.     

The Role of Lending Banks in Forced CEO Turnovers

This article investigates the governance role of banks exercised through the replacement of underperforming CEOs in borrowing firms. An average level of bank loans outstanding implies a 22% to 47% increase in the forced turnover probability of a borrowing firm’s CEO if a firm’s industry adjusted performance is one standard deviation below average. This increase is much larger, 68% to 92%, when an underperforming firm violates its loan covenants. Overall, the paper’s findings suggest that banks play a key role in the governance of underperforming firms, especially when covenants are violated.     

Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They be Explained?

This article examines possible explanations for “winner-loser reversals” in the national stock market indices of 16 countries. There is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner countries either in terms of standard deviations, covariance with the world market or other risk factors, or performance in adverse economic states of the world. While there is evidence that small markets are subject to larger reversals than large markets, perhaps due to some form of market imperfection, the reversals are not only a small-market phenomenon. The apparent anomaly of winner-loser reversals in national market indices therefore remains unresolved.