Owner liability and financial reporting information as predictors of firm default in bank loans

We examine the effects of owner liability and non-accounting and financial accounting information on the probability of default as defined in Basel II in bank loan contracted by non listed firms. We model default as a function of owner liability and accounting and non-accounting information of non-listed firms, drawing on 43,117 annual accounts of 16,029 firms over a 7-year period. Our estimations based on mixed logistic regressions with random parameters show that the predicted default probability of full-liability firms is 0.72 times that of limited liability firms. The likelihood ratio test for omitted variables confirms the additional predictive ability of liability status over and above other non-accounting and financial accounting information. A Heckman self-selection model does not indicate sampling bias. The particular definition of default used in the study enables the findings to be generalizable across other institutional contexts.     

The role of a crisis in reshaping the role of accounting

Prior to 2001, international accounting standards (IAS) were insufficiently attractive to gain the support of US regulators. The potential role of IAS in the US gained prominence during a period of extreme financial reporting instability in 2001–2002. Emerging opinion increasingly upheld principles-based rather than rules-based accounting standards in the face of the financial reporting crisis. But to promote any active shift in the US position, an institutionally legitimate infrastructure for the international accounting standards setter had to be created. As this was taking shape, the globalisation of business activities grew with inter-organizational linkages and cross-national financial inter-dependencies and flows becoming increasingly complex. Given the extensively uncertain, uneven and constantly evolving nature of global business changes, the aptness of applying judgment in assessing financial performance and position rather than relying on the application of pre-defined rules continued to achieve wider acceptance. The argument is made in the paper that international financial reporting standards are today seen to fulfil a global risk mitigating role founded on a logic that had to first gain political and institutional legitimacy and that also had to be viewed as being responsive to perceived market imperatives.     

The Role of Financial,Macroeconomic, and Non-financial Information in Bank Loan Default Timing Prediction

We assess the use of bank loan information in predicting the timing to default. We use unique data on defaults in small and medium enterprises maintained by the Central Bank of Portugal which includes financial accounting and macroeconomic indicators, as well as non-financial information. The findings are indicative of the incremental predictive ability of non-financial information over and above macroeconomic and financial accounting information in the baseline, industry, and in- and out-of-sample models. Specifically, total credit secured by firms is, as expected, negatively and significantly related to default. Gross domestic product is negatively and significantly related to default, and benchmark market rate is positively and significantly associated with default. The findings also reveal that firms which are operated by partners, which have stronger financial support from partners, and which possess operational assets exhibit lower hazards of default. The study indicates that non-financial information and macroeconomic indicators assessed alongside financial accounting data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default models.     

The effectiveness of the auditor's going-concern evaluation as an external governance mechanism: Evidence from loan defaults

When there is significant doubt about a firm's ability to continue as a going concern, professional standards require independent auditors to disclose the uncertainty in their report. This study assesses the influence of the independent auditor's going-concern evaluation by examining default following the release of the auditor's report. We use a proprietary sample maintained by the Portuguese Central Bank on 12,199 audit reports relating to approximately 2000 firms that are liable by law to have their accounts audited on an annual basis. Empirical estimation of a logit model controlling for accounting cash- flow-related and nonaccounting variables shows that the likelihood of default for firms that received going concern opinion is 2.792 times that of firms that received a clean opinion. Likelihood ratio tests for omitted variable also confirm the incremental predictive ability of going-concern opinion over and above accounting and nonaccounting variables for the estimation and hold-out samples. In the nondefaulting group, the average default rate is 6.05%, in the defaulting group it is 17.78%. The default rate for firms in the nondefaulting group that received a going-concern opinion is 9.92% and for firms that received a clean opinion it is 5.96%. In the defaulting group, the rate for firms that received a going-concern opinion is 35.49% and for firms that received a clean opinion it is 16.96%. Checks for robustness across different asset classes, age, industries, and regions indicate that firms that receive a going-concern opinion on average default more than those that receive a clean opinion.