WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EURO?

The Stability Pact ‐ intended to make EMU governments run prudent budgets ‐ is losing its credibility. This article asks the question: what will happen if national debts start to rise again and some governments then have difficulty borrowing? It suggests that there will be calls for bailout, that the EU's political structures will not cope well with the resulting arguments over which countries will pay, and that the eventual and painful result will be a return to the principle that currencies and political areas coincide.     

Marketing program standardization: A cross-country exploration

This study explores the antecedents and consequences of marketing program standardization in subsidiaries of multinational corporations by contrasting the case of a lead market (Japan) and of an emerging market (Turkey). The findings show that: (1) marketing program standardization is positively related to performance in Japan and Turkey; (2) centralization of nonproduct decision is negatively related to performance in both markets; (3) customer similarity is positively related to marketing program standardization in both Japan and Turkey. Whereas, in Japan, marketing program standardization has a direct, positive relationship to performance, in Turkey, in addition to such a direct effect, there is also an indirect effect at work, through centralization of nonproduct decision.     

Asymmetric performance: the market share impact of scale and link alliances in the global auto industry

This study investigates how participating in strategic alliances with rivals affects the relative competitive positions of the partner firms. The paper builds on studies that show significant differences in the outcomes of scale and link alliances. The study argues that the more asymmetric outcomes of link alliances translate into greater changes in the relative market shares of the partner firms, due to unbalanced opportunities for inter‐partner learning and learning by doing. We find support for this argument by examining 135 alliances among competing firms in the global automobile industry, from 1966 to 1995. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models

This paper considers finite sample motivated structural change tests in the multivariate linear regression model with application to energy demand models, in which case commonly used structural change tests remain asymptotic. As in Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68], we account for intervening nuisance parameters through a two-stage maximized Monte Carlo test procedure. Our contributions can be classified into five categories: (i) we extend tests for which a finite-sample theory has been supplied for Gaussian distributions to the non-Gaussian context; (ii) we show that Bai et al. [1998. Testing and dating common breaks in multi-variate time series. The Review of Economic Studies 65 (3), 395–432] test severely over-rejects and propose exact variants of this test; (iii) we consider predictive break test approaches which generalize tests in Dufour [1980. Dummy variables and predictive tests for structural change. Economics Letters 6, 241–247] and Dufour and Kiviet [1996. Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 70, 39–68]; (iv) we propose exact (non-Bonferonni based) extensions of the multivariate outliers test from Wilks [1963. Multivariate statistical outliers. Sankhya Series A 25, 407–426] to models with covariates; (v) we apply these tests to the energy demand system analyzed by Arsenault et al. [1995. A total energy demand model of Québec: forecasting properties. Energy Economics 17 (2), 163–171]. For two out of the six industrial sectors analyzed over the 1962–2000 period, break and further goodness-of-fit and diagnostic tests allow to identify (and correct) specification problems arising from historical regulatory changes or (possibly random) industry-specific effects. The procedures we propose have potential useful applications in statistics, econometrics and finance (e.g. event studies).     

Kurt Lewin and the Planned Approach to Change: A Re-appraisal

abstract The work of Kurt Lewin dominated the theory and practice of change management for over 40 years. However, in the past 20 years, Lewin's approach to change, particularly the 3-Step model, has attracted major criticisms. The key ones are that his work: assumed organizations operate in a stable state; was only suitable for small-scale change projects; ignored organizational power and politics; and was top-down and management-driven. This article seeks to re-appraise Lewin's work and challenge the validity of these views. It begins by describing Lewin's background and beliefs, especially his commitment to resolving social conflict. The article then moves on to examine the main elements of his Planned approach to change: Field Theory; Group Dynamics; Action Research; and the 3-Step model. This is followed by a brief summary of the major developments in the field of organizational change since Lewin's death which, in turn, leads to an examination of the main criticisms levelled at Lewin's work. The article concludes by arguing that rather than being outdated or redundant, Lewin's approach is still relevant to the modern world.     

Product quality: Impact of interdepartmental interactions

The authors examine the role of organizational factors affecting interdepartmental interactions and their subsequent effects on product quality. Results from a national study suggest that product quality is affected by interdepartmental conflict and connectedness. Importantly, the linkage between interdepartmental conflict and product quality appears to be robust across varying levels of market turbulence and technological turbulence. In contrast, interdepartmental connectedness appears to be more important for product quality under conditions of high market and technological turbulence. The results also indicate that interdepartmental interactions are influenced by leadership characteristics (risk aversion of top managers), reward system orientation, and organization structure (centralization, departmentalization, and hierarchical levels). Managerial implications and directions for future work are proposed. His research interests focus on marketing strategy, marketing management, and new product management. His work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Business Research, and other journals. His research focuses on implementing and controlling marketing, market/environmental orientation, and customer responses to advertising. His work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Review of Marketing, and other journals. His research interests include market orientation, marketing strategy, sales management, and industrial marketing. His work has appeared in a number of journals including theJournal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, andStrategic Management Journal.     

Incentive Contract and Weather Risk

We study contracts designed to remunerate a farmer for the production of an ecosystem service with the payment dependent on the results of the farmer’s actions and on weather conditions. Two contracts are proposed: the first takes into account both the results of the farmer’s actions and a weather variable that reflects the actual atmospheric conditions during the life of the contract; the second bases the payment on the results alone incorporating only the average effect of weather. Social welfare is optimal when both the results and the specific atmospheric conditions are taken into account; however, this type of contract may be less acceptable to the farmer due to his perception of the level of risk involved.We thank two referees for valuable comments.     

On recalls, layoffs, variable hours, and labor adjustment costs

The paper analyzes the employment policy of a firm that can vary both hours and the level of employment. The analysis differs from previous work in the adjustment cost literature in that the firm is able to change its employment not only through hires, layoffs, and quits, but also by recalls of employees who were previously laid off. Thus, we introduce the possibility of the firm inventorying the labor input. It is shown that this labor inventory potential is necessary if the firm is to ever lay off workers. Further, it is demonstrated that linear rather than strictly convex adjustment costs are then required if the firm is to always recall employees who were previously laid off prior to hiring new workers.     

A child health production function estimated from longitudinal data. Cebu Study Team

Collaborating researchers used a multi equation model to analyze 3080 mother-infant pairs living on the island of Cebu in the central Philippines and to estimate a child health production function. The econometric methods used eliminated obstacles such as heterogeneity and endogeneity of significant explanatory factors. They also maximized the longitudinal quality of the data. The results showed that morbidity in 1 period reduced infant weight in following periods. For example, diarrhea and febrile respiratory infection reduced growth in the time period following the illnesses. Further effects of some contributing factors were great near birth not diminished with age. For example, breast feeding promoted growth and protected against infection, especially diarrhea and febrile respiratory infection, more substantially near birth than it did later. Further, in urban areas, preventive health care positively affected growth independently of its indirect influence on reducing respiratory infection. Yet it had little effect on diarrhea. Diarrhea had a strong adverse effect on growth. Exposure of the infant to enteric pathogens had the greatest influence on production of diarrhea. In urban areas, exposure included water supply contamination, exposure to feces, a more pathogenic diet, and community crowding. In rural areas, however, exposure included community crowding and increased rainfall which presumably washed feces into the water supply. Household crowding in both urban and rural areas and irritation from smoke in urban areas only tended to bring about febrile respiratory infection.