Forecasting Real Inventories and the Anomaly of Money Illusion

While the transmission mechanism of inventory behavior in the business cycle has been studied, less effort has been devoted to applied forecasting of inventory change. Inventory fluctuations have accounted for a sizable portion of the changes in U.S. GDP during recessions over the past fifty years. In this paper, we report on out-of-sample forecasts of manufacturing and trade inventories generated by regression and neural network methodology. Our forecasting model is Metzlerian in approach, in that the divergence between actual and targeted sales is hypothesized as the primary cause of inventory imbalance. Our forecasts also rely on the slow adjustment of inventory investment to sales surprises. However, the likely presence of money illusion is a caveat to users, and we address several distortions it introduces to inventory management measures.     

Do Business Groups Change With Market Development?

Khanna and Yafeh hypothesize that business groups should be more common in economies with less developed markets and institutions. We test the time‐series version of this hypothesis by looking at changes in Chilean groups over 20 years (1990–2009). In this period, Chile experienced a deep economic transformation as measured by common proxies of market development (e.g., per capita income doubled). Despite this dramatic transformation, groups remained mostly unchanged in terms of relative size, industrial diversification, vertical integration, control structures, internal capital markets, and reliance on external funds (minority equity plus debt). Only leverage increased. Also, groups' initial conditions were uncorrelated with market development at the time of formation. This evidence casts doubts on the institutional‐voids hypothesis, although more subtle institutional voids, not captured by the type of macro proxies we use, might explain the existence and resilience of business groups.     

Corporate taxes and the demand for labor and capital in developing countries

This article provides evidence about the impact of corporate taxation on both labor and capital demand by private companies in a developing economy, using firm level data from Chile. Our results show that higher corporate tax rates reduce not only the demand for capital, but also the demand for labor due to complementarities between both inputs. An interesting element of the results presented in this article is the asymmetry between the effects of taxation according to company size. The impact on labor demand is significantly higher in large corporations than in small enterprises, while the demand for capital is more responsive to corporate tax changes in small firms. We can explain these results based on differences in credit constraints according to firm size.     

Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?

The appropriate measure of cash flow for valuing corporate assets is net payout, which is the sum of dividends, interest, and net repurchases of equity and debt. Variation in net payout yield, the ratio of net payout to asset value, is mostly driven by movements in expected cash flow growth, instead of movements in discount rates. Net payout yield is less persistent than dividend yield and implies much smaller variation in long-horizon discount rates. Therefore, movements in the value of corporate assets can be justified by changes in expected future cash flow.     

Popular movements and urban alternatives in post-Franco Spain

L'Espagne se trouve à l'encontre de sévères problèmes urbains que le régime authoritaire ne peut résoudre. Au fǔr et à mesure que ce régime se désintère, de nouvelles revendications surgissent; mais en Espagne, contrairement au Portugale, ce sont des mouvements organisés qui réclament une nouvelle politique. Ces mouvements populaires sont fondés sur les quartiers (Barrios); cette communication s'addresse à leurs développement à Barcelone. Les mouvements urbains de cette ville ont évolués à partir d'une contestation d'issus d'envergure locale, à une qui s'addresse aux processus et planification de toute la ville. Un réseau de groupes a créé les moyens pour une renaissance d'une vie collective et démocratique. Le droit à un logement convenable, aux aménagements adéquats, au contrǒle sur l'industrie et la pollution, et à une suspension des rénovations urbaines, s'est fait valoir. Les moyens par lequels ces objectifs sont accomplis sont esquissés. Une critique de la planification implique celle de l'administration municipale. Divers genres de protestations ont eu lieu à différentes périodes dans l'évolution de cette critique. C'est maintenant que les mouvements communautaires, les analystes de l'urbain, et les nouveaux groupes politiques ont besoin de travailler ensemble afin développer un nouveau contexte pour le gouvernement municipal, à l'intérieur d'un programme socio-économique plus large. Dans n'importe quel système futur, les groupes des Barrios continueront de jouer un rǒle essentiel. Un mouvement vers une réforme municipale accompagnera vraisemblablement un changement social plus grand, surtout celui de la lutte pour l'autonomie Catalane.     

Consumer receptiveness to international retail expansion: a cross-cultural study of perceptions of social and economic influence of foreign retailers

Guided by the work of Samiee (1993 Samiee, S.1993. “Retailing and Channel Considerations in Developing Countries: A Review and Research Propositions.” Journal of Business Research27 (2): 103–129. doi:10.1016/0148-2963(93)90018-K.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Journal of Business Research, 27 (2): 103–129), Sakarya, Eckman, and Hyllegard (2007 Sakarya, S., M.Eckman, and K.Hyllegard. 2007. “Market Selection for International Expansion.” International Marketing Review24 (2): 208–238. doi:10.1108/02651330710741820.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. International Marketing Review, 24 (2): 208–238), and Alexander et al. (2010 Alexander, N., A. M.Doherty, J. M.Carpenter, and M.Moore. 2010. “Consumer Receptiveness to International Retail Market Entry.” International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management38 (3): 160–172. doi:10.1108/09590551011027104.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 38 (3): 160–172), a cross-cultural analysis was undertaken to examine consumer receptiveness to domestic market entry by foreign apparel specialty retailers. More specifically, this study explored differences in consumers' perceptions of the influence of foreign apparel specialty retailers on social, cultural, and economic development across three countries: Spain, Turkey, and the USA. Consumer receptiveness was measured as beliefs about the social and economic influence of foreign retailers and perceptions of retailers' brand characteristics and offerings. An intercept survey of 1233 apparel shoppers was conducted in major metropolitan shopping areas in all three countries. MANOVA revealed that Spanish consumers were least concerned about urban growth associated with foreign retailers and least likely to perceive positive employment/business opportunities and socio-cultural well-being from the presence of foreign retailers. Turkish consumers held the strongest perceptions regarding the influence of foreign retailers on urban growth. Paired sample t-tests revealed that Turkish consumers, when compared with Spanish consumers, evaluated U.S. retailers' offerings more positively and were more receptive to the entry of U.S. retailers into their domestic markets. Results of regression analyses indicated that Spanish and Turkish consumers' beliefs about retail brand characteristics and the socio-cultural and economic influence of foreign retailers positively predicted consumers' receptiveness, whereas age negatively influenced receptiveness. Differences in perceptions among Spanish, Turkish, and U.S. consumers may be attributed to the varying levels of economic development among the three countries as well as to the countries' differing policies concerning foreign retailers. Findings provide a basis for the development of a measure of consumer receptiveness to international retail expansion.     

马德里“新潮派”文化运动与视觉艺术

发生在上世纪70年代末至80年代中期这一西班牙历史上特定时期的文化运动,目前被定义为马德里"新潮派"文化运动。佛朗哥将军自1936-1939年内战中打败西班牙共和国之后,开始的长达四十多年的右派独裁统治在那段时期结束,政治开始正式向民主进行过渡。     

Which Creditors’ Rights Drive Financial Deepening and Economic Development?

Since the 1990s financial economists have documented the essential role of creditors' rights in encouraging lenders to provide credit. This article demonstrates the central importance of creditors' ability to use movable assets such as inventories and accounts receivable (as distinct from immovable assets like real estate) as collateral when lending to business enterpriseses. Using a unique cross‐country, micro‐level loan data set that contains loan‐to‐value ratios for different assets, the authors found that the loan‐to‐values of loans that are collateralized with movable assets were lower in countries with weak collateral laws for movable assets, and that lending in such countries was biased toward the use of immovable assets. Using sector‐level data, the authors also found that weak movable collateral laws were associated with distortions in the allocation of resources that favored immovable‐based production and investment. The effects of resources that favored immovable‐based production and investment. The effects of the collateral law reform enacted in Slovakia in 2003 were held up as providing support for the authors' findings. The authors also investigated which aspects of movable assets collateralization regimes are most important for facilitating the use of movable assets as collateral. They concluded that the two critical features of such regimes are the registration of collateral interests—which facilitates monitoring of collateral and avoids double pledging—and the ability of creditors to avoid lengthy court proceedings when taking possession of collateral. These findings suggest that it would be relatively easy for many countries to increase their supply of credit because reforming these aspects of legal regimes is fairly straightforward with few political obstacles.