大宗商品价格下跌利好亚洲吗？

迄今为止，食品通胀放缓对亚洲产生了积极影响。然而，粮食价格进一步走弱的空间有限。要提高粮食之外消费增长的可能性，让亚洲消费者充分享受全球粮食价格下行的益处，亚洲各国对农业部门的改革比以往更为必要。     

Expected purchasing power parity

Conclusions The results of this study indicate that movements in the exchange rate are determined primarily by expected purchasing power parity. Expected future wholesale and consumer prices were both significantly related to the exchange rate. The coefficients were negative and close to unity. Finally, the results imply that expected future inflation can have an impact on a country’s terms of trade.     

Capital flows and economic growth revisited: evidence from five Sub-Saharan African countries

The study examines the differential effects of capital flows on economic growth in five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1970–2014. Using the autoregressive distributed lag methodology, the findings show that in the long-run capital flows (i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI), aid, external debt, and remittances) have different effects on economic growth. FDI has a significant positive effect in Burkina Faso and negative effects in Gabon and Niger whereas the impact of debt is negative in all countries. Aid, however, promotes growth in Niger and Gabon whiles it deters growth in Ghana. Remittances, on the other hand, have a significant positive effect in Senegal. Finally, gross capital formation is significant in most of the countries and the impact of trade is mixed. These results suggest that the benefits of capital flows in SSA have been overemphasized.     

Expected inflation,wealth effects and personal expenditure

Zusammenfassung Inflationserwartungen, Verm?gen und pers?nliche Ausgaben. — In dem Artikel wird ein Modell entwickelt, mit dem die Beziehung zwischen pers?nlichen Ausgaben und Inflationserwartungen getestet wird. Danach ist die Wirkung einer erwarteten Steigerung der Preise von dauerhaften Gütern auf die Ausgabenquote signifikant positiv, aber die einer erwarteten Preissteigerung bei Verbrauchsgütern und Dienstleistungen signifikant negativ. Schlie\lich wirken sich in übereinstimmung mit Friedmans Hypothese vom permanenten Einkommen Ver?nderungen des Realeinkommens in signifikanter Weise negativ auf die Ausgabenquote aus.

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Résumé L’inflation anticipée, les effets de patrimoine et les dépenses personnelles. — L’auteur a développé et testé un modèle pour explorer la relation entre les dépenses personnelles et l’inflation anticipée. L’effet d’une montée anticipée du prix des biens durables sur le rapport dépense/revenu est positif et significatif pendant que l’effet d’une augmentation anticipée du prix des biens non-durables et des services sur le rapport dépense/revenu est négatif et significatif. Finalement, en conformité avec l’hypothèse du revenu permanent de Friedman, l’effet des changements du revenu réel sur le rapport dépense/revenu est négatif et significatif.

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Resumen Inflaci?n esperada, efectos de riqueza y gasto personal. — Se desarroll? y someti? a prueba un modelo para relacionar el gasto personal con la inflaci?n esperada. El efecto de la inflaci?n esperada para los precios de bienes durables sobre la proporci?n del gasto es positivo y significante, mientras que el efecto de la inflaci?n esperada para los precios de los bienes no durables y servicios sobre la proporci?n del gasto es negativo y significante. Finalmente, de acuerdo con la hip?tesis del ingreso permanente de Friedman, el impacto de cambios en el ingreso real sobre la proporci?n del gasto es negativo y significante.

     

Quotas and the structure of consumer demand

In the direct utility function, quantities axe exogenous, while prices and total expenditure are endogenous. Consequently, this utility function is appropriate for analyzing the impact on prices and total expenditure from an exogenous change in the quantity of a commodity. Such an exogenous change in quantity could occur when quotas change. The direct translog utility function is estimated for a four commodity breakdown of U.S. expenditure. Estimates of quantity elasticities of price and expenditure indicate that domestically produced non-durables are necessities. As a result, the imposition of quotas on these goods will be particularly deleterious to lower income consumers.     

Financial development,control of corruption and income inequality

This paper examines the effect of financial development and control of corruption on income inequality in 21 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1985–2011 using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator. The empirical results show that financial development measures have positive impact on income inequality, which suggest that financial development increases income inequality. On the other hand, the coefficients of control of corruption are negative and significantly related to income inequality which implies that corruption control reduces income inequality. Further, the interaction of the financial development and the control of corruption is found to be negatively and significantly related to income inequality. Equally the interaction of the financial development and transparency index (an alternate measure of corruptibility) is found to be negatively and significantly related to income inequality. These findings suggest that the control of corruption and transparency in governance are crucial in reducing income inequality in SSA.     

Unpacking Firm Exit at the Firm and Industry Levels: The Adaptation and Selection of Firm Capabilities

Evolutionary theory of business activity studies how firms are selected out of environments in which they do not fit, but most existing work underemphasizes the distinction between acquisition and dissolution as selection processes. We address this gap with a multilevel analysis that investigates how managerial and functional organizational capabilities affect whether struggling firms exit by acquisition or dissolution. We demonstrate that managerial and functional capabilities have heterogeneous effects on selection processes, with managerial capabilities having particularly strong influence on acquisition exits by struggling firms. The work provides a bridge between adaptation and selection views on organizational change; exit by dissolution represents selection of both firms and capabilities, while exit by acquisition represents firm selection but capability adaptation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.