Can Foreigners Improve the Profitability of Emerging Market Banks? Evidence from the Vietnamese Strategic Partner Program

Foreign ownership and foreign management are often assumed to improve the efficiency of emerging market banks. Our article examines this relationship for the Vietnamese strategic partner program, where foreign banks have been allowed to take minority stakes in local banks. We add to the existing literature by distinguishing between ownership by foreign strategic and non-strategic investors, and between foreign management sent by the strategic partner and independent foreign executives. We show that only the presence of independent foreign executives has a positive impact on banks. We interpret these results as the consequence of conflicts of interest and power struggles between local shareholders and the strategic partner, which prevent efficiency in enhancing technology transfer.     

Trade facilitation in ASEAN countries: harmonisation of logistics policies

This paper studies the effectiveness of the implementation of trade facilitation measures in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). We evaluate trade facilitation performance and indicate trade facilitation needs and priorities that vary between ASEAN members. In particular, we examine logistics‐related costs in ASEAN and whether the current level of logistics‐related costs could be a burden or an advantage for ASEAN countries. We also identify critical barriers that have impacts on logistics services related to foreign investment and customs across ASEAN. Finally, we propose recommendations for the harmonisation of logistics policies in ASEAN countries aimed at the development of the ASEAN Economic Community.     

Predicting future purchases with the Poisson log-normal model

The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD conditional expectation. CTA allows brand managers to identify whether the sales change in a second period is accounted for by previous non-, light, or heavy buyers of the brand. Although a useful tool, the conditional prediction of the NBD suffers from a bias: it under predicts what the period-one non-buyer class will do in period two and over predicts the sales contribution of existing buyers. In addition, the NBD's assumption of a gamma-distributed mean purchase rate lacks theoretical support—it is not possible to explain why a gamma distribution should hold. This paper therefore proposes an alternative model using a log-normal distribution in place of the gamma distribution, hence creating a Poisson log-normal (PLN) distribution. The PLN distribution has a stronger theoretical grounding than the NBD as it has a natural interpretation relying on the central limit theorem. Empirical analysis of brands in multiple categories shows that the PLN distribution gives better predictions than the NBD.     

The Role of Financial Ratios in the Variance of Stock Trading Volume in Emerging Stock Markets

The study used quarterly panel data of 6 years from 2010 to 2015 of all companies listed on both Vietnamese stock markets including the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange and Ha Noi Stock Exchange, and on three leading industries consisting of insurance-banking, foodstuff, and real estate to explore the relationship among four key financial ratios and stock trading volume. Two models, fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM), with robust standard errors, were applied for this study. The key findings showed that earnings before tax on sales, debt on owner’s equity, and owner’s equity on total assets significantly influenced trading volume.     

Overnight public information,order placement,and price discovery during the pre-opening period

This study examines the impact of corporate news announcements released overnight on price discovery during the pre-opening period in the Australian Securities Exchange. Our results suggest that the presence of these announcements increases the efficiency of indicative opening prices and that the intensity of these announcements significantly influences the aggressiveness of pre-opening orders. Using earnings announcements to compare the speed of price adjustments in response to overnight and daytime information of a homogeneous type, we find that prices respond immediately to overnight news upon the commencement of trading, whereas adjustments based on trading-hours news tend not to be instantaneous. Overall, our evidence highlights the important role of the pre-opening period in price discovery and the prospect of further enhancing this role by timing the release of public information to occur during non-trading hours.     

Ownership Structure and Firm Performance: Evidence from Vietnamese Listed Firms

We examine the effect of ownership structure on firm performance, for firms listed on Vietnamese stock exchanges, using 2744 firm‐year observations over the period from 2007 to 2012. We find a non‐linear relationship between ownership structure and firm performance. State ownership has a convex relationship with firm performance. This paper finds that firm performance increases beyond 28.67 percent level of state ownership. Foreign ownership has a concave relationship with firm performance. We find that firm performance increases with an increase of foreign ownership up to a level of 43 percent and then decreases. Policy makers should encourage foreign ownership and widely dispersed state ownership in firms, which can help improve firm performance.     

Corporation Diversification and Firm Performance: Evidence from Vietnamese Listed Firms

We examine the effect of corporate diversification on the performance of firms listed on the Vietnamese stock exchanges, using 2744 firm year observations over the period from 2007 to 2012. We find that corporate diversification has a negative impact on firm performance. Our results are robust to various econometric estimation techniques including fixed effect, instrumental fixed effect, Heckman selection model and system generalised method of moments. In the Vietnamese context, the lack of an efficient corporate governance system may encourage firms to follow corporate diversification strategies, thus impairing their performance.     

Benchmarking buyer behavior towards new brands

New brand launches are risky endeavors for marketers, as many fail to attract a sustainable customer base. This research examines the buying behavior of customers acquired by a new brand and revisits the theoretical norms of the NBD-Dirichlet model benchmarks. Investigating 40 new brand launches in the UK, across a wide range of brand and category conditions, we find that in the first 12 months, new launches have more, but less loyal buyers than expected from NBD-Dirichlet benchmarks, irrespective of type, price point, or the sales gained by the new launch. Further we find exploratory evidence that new buyers of brands have weaker associations than existing buyers. We propose that the combination of the new experience that lacks distinctiveness in encoding means that the experience of buying the new brand creates weaker memory traces in new buyers and that these buyers need additional marketing reinforcement to consolidate the memory of buying the brand to establish the brand in their ongoing repertoire.     

The impact of rural roads and irrigation on household welfare: evidence from Vietnam

We measure the impact of road and irrigation projects on the livelihoods of households in the poorest and most remote areas of Vietnam using difference-in-difference estimators. We find that both rural road and irrigation projects help local households improve the access to safe water and welfare measured by a wealth index. The impact of irrigation projects is found to be larger than the impact of road projects. We also find heterogeneous impacts of road and irrigation projects. Households with higher levels of education tend to benefit more from road projects, while households with lower levels of education are likely to benefit more from irrigation projects.     

Relation between franking credits and the market risk premium: a comment

Based on the Officer (1994) model, Gray and Hall (2006) derive a relation between franking credits and the market risk premium. On the basis of this relation, the authors show that traditional estimates of the value of franking credits imply dividend yields that are inconsistent with historical equity market data. This inconsistency arises from assumptions about the franking credit payout ratio and the value of franking credits retained. With less than a 100 per cent payout ratio some franking credits are retained within the firm. Assuming that the retained franking credits have no value leads to the inconsistency in dividend yields. Current practice in the application of Officer's model makes this assumption and, therefore, leads to inconsistent results. Gray and Hall suggest resolving the inconsistency by setting the value of all franking credits to zero. An alternative solution is to recognize that retained franking credits might have a positive value.