Modelling return and conditional volatility exposures in global stock markets

This article empirically investigates the exposure of country-level conditional stock return volatilities to conditional global stock return volatility. It provides evidence that conditional stock market return volatilities have a contemporaneous association with global return volatilities. While all the countries included in the study exhibited a significant and positive relationship to global volatility, emerging market volatility exposures were considerably higher than developed market exposures. JEL Classification G12     

Pension plan solvency and extreme market movements: a regime switching approach

We develop and test a new approach to assess defined benefit (DB) pension plan solvency risk in the presence of extreme market movements. Our method captures both the ‘fat-tailed’ nature of asset returns and their correlation with discount rate changes. We show that the standard assumption of constant discount rates leads to dramatic underestimation of future projections of pension plan solvency risk. Failing to incorporate leptokurtosis into asset returns also leads to downward biased estimates of risk, but this is less pronounced than the time-varying discount rate effect. Further modifying the model to capture the correlation between asset returns and the discount rate provides additional improvements in the projection of future pension plan solvency. This reduces the perceived future risk of underfunding because of the negative correlation between interest rate changes and asset returns. These results have important implications for those with responsibility for balancing risk against expected return when seeking to improve the current poor funding positions of DB pension schemes.     

Effectiveness and Efficiency in Privatization Advertising

The privatization of a number of British nationalized industries during the 1980s involved the use of substantial marketing and, in particular, advertising expenditure. When the same or similar activities are repeated, some experience or learning curve effect can be expected, such that the relative efficiency of performing that activity rises. From an examination of the objectives for and the process of privatization, a learning curve effect might be expected that would result in a progressive lowering of privatization marketing and advertising costs.

The data on privatization from 1981 to 1989 shows the expected learning curve effect for total marketing cost, the total cost reducing over subsequent privatizations. However, the relative cost of advertising first rose and then failed to fall, even when the objectives for privatization changed from widening share ownership to deepening it. The expected learning curve is not then observable, leading to the conclusion that inefficiency existed in the advertising of privatizations, particularly in the late 1980s, and that considerable sums could have been saved if a different strategy had been followed.     

The impact of public investment in medical imaging technology: an interagency collaboration in evaluation

The Canada Foundation for Innovation (CFI) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) allied to analyze the impact of their investments in medical imaging research. The CFI funds capital and operating programs for research infrastructure, and CIHR's mandate concentrates its funding on research activity. It happens that CIHR-funded research consumes CFI-funded infrastructure as an input in the innovation process. Apart from a few partnered programs, by design there is no coordination between CFI and CIHR funding decisions. Together, these agencies invested $916 million over a 14-year-period. In this paper, we evaluate the economic and health benefits from advancements in one funded area, namely computed tomography perfusion (CTP). CTP is an imaging technique that uses computed tomography to measure blood flow in organs and tissues. It is mostly used to assess acute ischemic stroke. The net social benefits attributable to these investments are substantially positive: the benefit-to-cost ratio is estimated to be between 6.66-to-1 and 9.99-to-1. We review how public investments from multiple funders comingle in the innovation process to deliver social value and improved health outcomes.     

Politics of The Ring: Limits to Public Participation in Engineering Practice

How engineering in the context of urban socio‐environmental challenges is practically and effectively mobilized has been the subject of some debate. Numerous professional bodies have encouraged engineers to approach socio‐environmental issues through increased engagement with, and accountability to, the public through effective participatory practices. This article presents a close empirical analysis of a major engineering project in London to argue that engineering has a more complex relationship with social, political and environmental conditions than the idealistic participatory conception supposes. In fact, the spatial, technical and economic arrangements of engineering practice may limit the potential for public participation. Through a detailed analysis of the example of the London Water Ring Main (from around 1988 to 1994), this article shows how myriad sometimes conflicting engineering issues and responsibilities interfered with key elements of effective participation. Therefore, although increased public engagement in engineering may be desirable in theory, substantial professional, institutional and political change may have to occur before this is possible in practice .     

An analysis of majority owner‐managed companies in the UK

This paper investigates the characteristics of 73 UK companies in which managers have an ownership stake of greater than 50 per cent. We find that majority owner‐managed companies make less use of alternative corporate control systems and are less likely to remove their chief executive officer or other board members following poor performance. However, our sample firms actually outperform diffusely held companies of similar size in the same industry. The determinants of majority control appear more closely related to the characteristics of the controlling shareholders rather than the firm's operating environment. Changes in the ownership structure of our sample companies owe more to changes in owner‐specific characteristics and security issuance than they are related to changes in the company's operating environment or company performance. We conclude that despite the obvious agency costs of managerial entrenchment for closely held companies, for the present sample at least the incentive alignment benefits of large director shareholdings are beneficial to outside shareholders.     

The Cost of Multiple Large Shareholders

Previous research argues that large noncontrolling shareholders enhance firm value because they deter expropriation by the controlling shareholder. We propose that the conflicting incentives faced by large shareholders may induce a nonlinear relationship between the relative size of large shareholdings and firm value. Consistent with this prediction, we present evidence that there are costs to having a second (and third) largest shareholder, especially when the largest shareholdings are similar in size. Our results are robust to various relative size proxies, firm performance measures, model specifications, and potential endogeneity issues.     

Accounting Window Dressing and Template Regulation: A Case Study of the Australian Credit Union Industry

This article documents the response of cooperative institutions that were required to adhere to new capital adequacy regulations traditionally geared for profit-maximising organisations. Using data from the Australian credit union industry, we demonstrate that the cooperative philosophy and internal corporate governance structure of cooperatives will lead management to increase capital adequacy ratios through the application of accounting window dressing techniques. This is opposite to the intended purpose of template regulation aimed at efficiently increasing operating margins and lowering risk. Our results raise several debatable issues regarding the ethics of accounting management and the imposition of one-shoe-fits-all external regulation.