Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992–1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks.     

The Impact of Survey Methodology and Context on Central Tendency,Nonresponse and Associations of Subjective Indicators of Government Performance

A comparison is given of (ordinal) measures of trust in government institutions that were collected with the aim of facilitating comparisons between different modes and contexts of data collection. Statistical analyses reveal that the mode effect could amount upto a 10% change of item nonresponse and a 9% change of the level of trust, whereas the context effect could lead upto a 19% change of the bivariate associations of trust. The observed changes of both measures of central tendency and of associations affect conclusions of social scientific research in isolated studies, which implies that comparative studies are seriously hampered by bias related to mode and context, two sources of obscurity adding to the two other threats which are differences of sample source and differences of question phrasing.     

Dividend Pricing Models and REITs

Dividend pricing/present value models relate current stock prices to expectations of future dividends. In this study we apply the West and Campbell–Shiller tests of the dividend pricing relation to an index of real estate investment trusts (REITs). REITs provide a unique test of these models since, during our study period, REITs were mandated to pay out at least 95% of taxable income as dividends. While our results complement previous research which finds that the dividend pricing model cannot be rejected if share repurchase is included as part of dividends, our data contain a much less significant amount of share repurchase, so that our approach to the issue of the viability of dividend pricing models offers an alternative insight. Our research suggests that, for our REIT population, dividend pricing models cannot be rejected.     

Some characteristics of adopters of a major innovation in the computer field and its potential use in marketing

The computer industry is changing dramatically thanks to new technologies that facilitate departure from the lock-in strategies pursued by the long-term industry leaders. New, highly competent competitors have entered the market with the resulting lower profit margins. Innovations in hardware and software are continuously introduced, and a rapid, successful introduction in the market is essential to gain a foothold before new contenders erode the opportunity. The selection of the most likely buyers is therefore important to direct the marketing efforts optimally. An international and a regional field study were carried out to identify the profile of organizations and individuals most likely to adopt an innovation in the computer field. These findings coupled with data base marketing techniques seem promising for a higher success rate in reaching the early adopters (lead users), making it possible to establish a first-mover advantage. The suggested approach can be used in other industries in rapid change.     

Should I take this seriously? A simple checklist for calling bullshit on policy supporting research

We propose a simple checklist for the users of policy supporting research in order to decide whether a piece of research begs further study or can be dismissed right away. The checklist focusses on the quality of the research question (is it a research question, and is the research question answerable); the kind of knowledge along with the order, level and quality of data needed for answering the RQ; the methods of analysis used; the degree to which the research results support the conclusions; and whether the conclusions provide an answer to the research question.     

Human resource development Education, training and labour market development

In addressing the complex issues of the relationship between new technologies and human resources, different methodological approaches can be applied. A rich source of studies exists at the micro level, ie enterprises and/or sectors which focus, in particular, on the qualitative changes taking place. Fewer studies exist on the macro level for this subject, given its complexity and lack of adequate data. This article addresses the issues from both perspectives, but findings from the micro perspective predominate. It is structured around developments and changes on the demand and supply side and their interaction. The final section identifies some principal policy issues for governments as they relate both to demand and supply measures, as well as the need to strengthen the database for a better understanding of the issues involved. It draws heavily on recent and ongoing work on the subject carried out within OECD/Center for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI).     

On the Hybrid Nature of REITs

The consensus that emerges from the current research on the linkage between securitized and direct investment in real estate is that direct (private) real estate returns play a relatively minor role in the real estate investment trust (REIT) return generating process. However, this result may at least partially be due to the coarseness of the measures of direct real estate returns or the relatively short return horizons used in previous studies. This study takes a different and unique perspective. Unlike earlier studies we do not use aggregated, average appraisal based returns on direct real estate investment. Instead, we use the MIT TBI indexes, which are transaction based price indexes, available both on the aggregate and sub-index levels. We find that the relation between REIT and direct real estate returns appears to be stronger at longer horizons. More specifically, using a cointegration framework, we find robust evidence that REITs and the underlying real estate are related and that they share a long run equilibrium. Interestingly, we find that both REITs and direct real estate returns adjust towards this long run relationship. When we examine property type level data we find similar results.     

An empirical assessment of the cross-national measurement validity of graded paired comparisons

The popular use of graded paired comparisons in empirical studies assessing consumers’ preferences, and the potential effect of cross-national differences in (extreme) response styles on the quality of graded paired comparison data, supply ample reasons for an empirical verification of the cross-national validity of such scales. Using data from a cross-national margarine brand study including fourteen different nations (N = 4,560), we found sufficient statistical evidence for cross-national bias due to existing cross-national differences in extreme responses. However, the low values reported for effect size measures (intra-class correlation coefficient, R ² value) indicated that the impact of the cross-national bias is marginal. The findings from our study provided empirical support for the hypothesis that graded paired comparison data can be meaningfully compared across nations.     

The Ordinal Controversy Revisited

We present a discussion of the different dimensions of the ongoing controversy about the analysis of ordinal variables. The source of this controversy is traced to the earliest possible stage, measurement theory. Three major approaches in analyzing ordinal variables, called the non-parametric, the parametric, and the underlying variable approach, are identified and the merits and drawbacks of each of these approaches are pointed out. We show that the controversy on the exact definition of an ordinal variable causes problems with regard to defining ordinal association, and therefore to the interpretation of many recently designed models for ordinal variables, e.g., structure equation models using polychoric correlations, latent class models and ordinal response models. We conclude that the discussion with regard to ordinal variable modeling can only be fruitful if one makes a distinction between different types of ordinal variables. Five types of ordinal variables were identified. The problems concerning the analysis of these five types of ordinal variables are solved in some cases and remain a problem for others.     

The etiology of liquidity crises and how managers can be better prepared

Financial shocks have become an increasingly pervasive feature of the global economic landscape. Among the two most prominent that have faced corporate managers during the past decade are the bursting of the technology bubble in 2000 and the ongoing global financial and economic crisis. These not only have had a chilling impact on the industries most directly involved, but they also occasioned a massive spillover into other industrial sectors, and in financial markets in general. “Contagion” is perhaps the most devastating aspect of such crises. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.