Maximizing benefits in project selection: a hybrid approach

Charitable foundations and government programmes should endeavour to allocate their limited resources to best serve their constituents. Yet, mathematical programming techniques are rarely used despite overwhelming evidence of their superiority in selecting projects that yield higher levels of total benefits. We present a novel ‘hybrid selection model’ that combines binary linear programming and heuristic rank-based models applied to two case studies. The first case focuses on providing services to women and shows a hybrid model would have selected the top three ‘signature’ projects and maintained an above-average overall project benefit while securing a 180% improvement in the number of projects funded, a 66% improvement in the number of women served and a 132% improvement in the total benefit achieved. In the second case, we apply the hybrid approach to data from the US government’s largest forest preservation programme and demonstrate that the hybrid approach could allow the programme to select up to 11 top-scoring projects while still achieving a 97% gain in the total overall benefit compared to their traditional method. These case studies show that the hybrid approach has the potential to be applied in a variety of settings and improve how foundations and programmes achieve their goals.     

Behavioral spillovers and cognitive load in multiple games: An experimental study

We present evidence from laboratory experiments of behavioral spillovers and cognitive load that spread across strategic contexts. In the experiments, subjects play two distinct games simultaneously with different opponents. We find that the strategies chosen and the efficiency of outcomes in one game depends on the other game that the subject plays, and that play is altered in predictable directions. We develop a measure of behavioral variation in a normal form game, outcome entropy, and find that prevalent strategies in games with low outcome entropy are more likely to be used in the games with high outcome entropy, but not vice versa. Taken together, these findings suggest that people do not treat strategic situations in isolation, but may instead develop heuristics that they apply across games.     

Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Cognitive representations of the future: Survey results

This paper reports the results of a web-based survey concerning how people think about the future. Five hundred and seventy-two people from 24 countries completed the survey. The results indicate that when the respondents hear the word ‘future’, they think about a point in time 15 years into the future, on average, with a median response of 10 years. Respondents think less about the future than the present. On the other hand, they tend to worry more about the future than the present. Respondents’ ability to imagine the future goes ‘dark’ around 15-20 years into the future. Most of the respondents are optimistic about the near term, but become more pessimistic about the longer term. Respondents believe that humankind is not acting very responsibly with respect to a whole host of environmental and social issues but is acting responsibly with respect to technology. Almost half of the respondents would not wish to have been born in the future. Most of the other respondents would have preferred to have been born 50-500 years into the future. Approximately 45% of the sample believes that humankind will become extinct. The data suggest that Christians are more optimistic and less worried about the future and do not believe that we will become extinct. Males worry less but also think more about the future. There is a strong correlation between thinking about the future, clearly imagining the future, and being optimistic about the future. It is concluded that individuals have diverse and rich conceptions about the future but that they think less about the future than futurists might hope. Individuals’ considerations of the future are highly influenced by their identities and worldviews. Future research should focus on better unraveling these relationships and on understanding their implications for futures-oriented policy making.     

Individual approaches to futures thinking and decision making

This paper presents results of a second international web-based survey designed to gather data about how individuals approach thinking about their futures and making decisions regarding their futures. Five hundred and five respondents from 38 countries participated in the survey. Similar to the first survey, the sample has gender, age and religious diversity but is not representative with respect to education, income and race/ethnicity. The results suggest that the external environment provides a great deal of stimuli for people to think about the future (e.g., special occasions like New Years day, birthdays, and funerals). Individuals tend to think about the future more in the morning, and just before bed. Overall, most respondents experience happiness, confidence, and lightness when thinking about the future. Respondents employ many different approaches to thinking about the future, such as relying on personal past experiences, imagining future situations, and relying on their personal intuitions. Most respondents do not pattern their futures decision making on decisions made by others or on tradition. Most respondents believe that their thinking about the future is very worthwhile; most develop plans and take decisive action as a result of their efforts. About three quarters of the respondents report that they are able to predict their personal futures at least one-half of the time. Most respondents face few barriers to thinking about the future, although many reported it would be nice to have more energy, be able to concentrate better, and be able to better organize their thoughts. Females report that thinking about the future is a more emotional experience than it is for males. Males, on the other hand, have more confidence in their futures-oriented decision making abilities. Age plays a big part in how individuals relate to and think about the future. Younger respondents think more about the future more times during the day and find thinking about the future more fearful and anxious. They also pattern their decisions more on those made by others and older individuals. Older respondents tend to rely a great deal upon their lifetime of experiences and worry less about the future. Middle-aged respondents report worrying more about financial and career issues and report that thinking about the future can be emotionally draining.     

A singular chain of events

This paper presents a scenario, a written narrative that describes a series of events that could lead to the extinction of humans as a species. The scenario is built upon three blocks of events. The first contains events that could severely and rapidly reduce human population in a relatively few years. The second block of events describes the regression of human civilization and technological base and the further loss of human population. The third block encompasses global environmental events that the remaining humans are subsequently unprepared to handle. The scenario posits the death by asphyxiation of the last human being by the year 3000.     

Luxury hotels mushrooming and extravagant governments

This paper empirically examines the effect of nontax revenue on demands for luxury hotels in China where the strict public financial supervision is not well-established. Results indicate the nontax revenue significantly influences luxury hotel demands across the country and that government demands have crowding out effect on private demands for luxury hotels, all of which appear more salient in Chinese underdeveloped areas with more severely deficient public financial supervision.     

Audit Education for Future Professionals: Perceptions of New Zealand Auditors

Audit professionals are charged with gathering evidence and expressing their opinions on the financial claims made by others. In New Zealand, as elsewhere, these opinions are relied upon for a myriad of decisions as to the economic position and operations of an organisation. The educational experience that future professionals receive in their tertiary study is important because it lays the pedagogical foundation for this role. The aim of this study is to evaluate those teaching practices, subjects and techniques that might be of value to future audit professionals. The analysis is uniquely from the perspective of the professional members who are most likely to benefit from students' experiences. The literature is used to identify relevant questions, and a survey of 360 professional auditors in New Zealand yielded a 36.4% response rate. A triangulated analysis of comments and scaled questions reveals that these professionals are concerned with communication, small business engagements and the relationships between, for example, risk and planning and independence and ethics. Findings also confirm the value of experiential and practice-informed learning and direct us to a few topics that may accommodate non-traditional teaching methods. Conclusions consider implications for teaching and future research.     

Dietary intake and the contribution of snacks among adolescents during the summer months

Abstract Adolescent diets are often cited as nutritionally inadequate, possibly because of their reported snacking habits. This study examined 48 adolescent diets using a 24-h diet recall and a 2-day food record during summer months. Total intake and snacks identified by the subjects were analysed for energy and nutrient content. Male and female subjects reported similar intakes of fat, cholesterol and sugar. Ninety-eight per cent of subjects reported at least one snack daily. Snacks contributed 25% to the total energy, vitamin C, calcium and magnesium intakes. Although these subjects were not adhering to national recommendations for fat and sugar, the snacks they consumed contributed positively to the nutrient content of adolescent diets.