Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?

Recent empirical studies suggest that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move together one-for-one in the long run, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This article shows that these results can be deceptive when the process followed by inflation shifts infrequently. We characterize the shifts in inflation by a Markov switching model. Based upon this model's forecasts, we reexamine the long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation. Interestingly, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that in the long run nominal interest rates reflect expected inflation one-for-one.     

Corrective advertising information processing by teenagers

In this study teenagers' understanding of corrective advertisements was measured at three levels: beliefs, attitudes and behavioural intentions. The results support the use of beliefs rather than attitudes or behavioural intentions to detect deception.     

GAUGING THE SOURCES OF GROWTH OF HIGH‐TECH AND LOW‐TECH INDUSTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREAN MANUFACTURING*

Literature argues that the source of growth for high‐tech industries emanates from technological progress, while that for low‐tech industries comes from technical efficiency improvement. Also, some empirical studies have shown that technological progress is often accompanied by deterioration in technical efficiency. The focus in this study is to discuss a methodology and test the above two hypotheses with regard to Korean manufacturing data from 1970 to 1997. The study found that the 2.5 per cent average annual rate of technological progress during this period was the major contributor to total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Korean manufacturing whereas technical efficiency grew by a modest 1.1 per cent per annum. The analysis also showed that technological progress was responsible for TFP growth in both high‐tech and low‐tech industries and that both technological progress and technical efficiency improvement co‐existed in the case of Korean manufacturing industries.     

The Use of Management Control Mechanisms to Mitigate Moral Hazard in the Decision to Outsource

Using archival data from the U.S. passenger airline industry, this study examines whether management control mechanisms aimed at mitigating moral hazard explain outsourcing decisions over and above transaction cost economics (TCE) determinants documented in prior research. Consistent with TCE theory, we find that in‐house production efficiencies and our proxy for transaction risk (i.e., deriving from transaction infrequency, transaction complexity, and relationship‐specific investments) significantly explain the extent of outsourcing of aircraft maintenance. We extend TCE insights to show that incentive delta (i.e., the sensitivity of CEO portfolio holdings to stock price changes) strengthens the negative association between production efficiencies and outsourcing while incentive vega (i.e., the sensitivity of CEO holdings to stock return volatility) weakens the negative association between transaction risk and outsourcing. Monitoring strengthens the negative association between in‐house production efficiencies and outsourcing, but has no effect on the transaction risk–outsourcing relation. The results suggest that the use of outsourcing to achieve cost savings is promoted through both incentive contracts and monitoring, but outsourcing to achieve the desired risk level is promoted only through incentive contracts.     

Politically Connected Private Equity and Employment

We investigate the employment consequences of private equity buyouts. We find evidence of higher job creation, on average, at the establishments operated by targets of politically connected private equity firms than at those operated by targets of nonconnected private equity firms. Consistent with an exchange of favors story, establishments operated by targets of politically connected private equity firms increase employment more during election years and in states with high levels of corruption. In additional analyses, we provide evidence of specific benefits experienced by target firms from their political connections. Our results are robust to tests designed to mitigate selection concerns.     

How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Previous research indicates that changes in housing wealth affect consumer spending on cars. We find that home equity extraction plays only a small role in this relationship. Consumers rarely use funds from equity extraction to purchase a car directly, even during the mid‐2000s’ housing boom; this finding holds across three nationally representative household surveys. We find in credit bureau data that equity extraction does lead to a statistically significant increase in auto loan originations, consistent with equity extraction easing borrowing constraints in the auto loan market. This channel, though, accounts for only a tiny share of overall car purchases.