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排序方式: 共有72条查询结果,搜索用时 147 毫秒
1.
This article investigates the behavior of the term structure of interest rates over the business cycle. In contrast to prior studies that measure the business cycle by the simple growth in aggregate economic activity, we consider the deviation of aggregate economic activity from its potentially stochastic trend. We show that incorporating both an independent trend and cyclical component in consumption improves the efficiency in estimating consumption-based asset pricing models. We also find that the term spread is more informative about future changes in stochastically detrended real gross domestic product (GDP) than future growth rates in real GDP. 相似文献
2.
In this paper we propose a sequential strategy, based on the microeconomic approach of the demand theory, in order to test for separability between private and public consumption. The aim of the present work is to verify, using a conditional almost ideal demand system, whether the different components of public consumption exert conditioning effects on the allocative structure of private spending. The empirical estimation of the model and the separability tests are developed for both a demand system in five functional categories of private spending, and for a demand system in six categories, where the private expenditures on those goods and services which can also be offered by the public sector are enclosed in a single functional category. The results of the separability tests, obtained using UK data for the 1974–2000 period, show that public individual consumption plays an important role in modifying consumer choices, while public collective consumption does not affect private consumption behaviours. The relationships between the different components of private spending and public individual consumption are both of substitutability and complementarity; in particular, we find that public individual consumption and the corresponding private expenditures on ‘Health, education, recreation and social protection’ are complements. 相似文献
3.
We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation targets. We analyze the effects on inflation of both having a quantitative target and hitting a declared target. Our empirical work uses an annual data set covering 42 countries between 1960 and 2000, and takes account of other determinants of inflation (such as fiscal policy, the business cycle, and openness to international trade) and the endogeneity of the monetary policy regime. We find that both having and hitting quantitative targets for monetary policy is systematically and robustly associated with lower inflation. The exact form of the monetary target matters somewhat (especially for the sustainability of the monetary regime) but is less important than having some quantitative target. Successfully achieving a quantitative monetary goal is also associated with less volatile output. 相似文献
4.
ANTONIO DIEZ DE LOS RIOS 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2009,41(4):755-766
This paper proposes an arbitrage-free model to extract the information that the term structure of forward premia contains for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Using monthly data on four U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates, we find evidence that this model provides statistically better forecasts than those produced by a random walk for the British pound and Canadian dollar exchange rates. Negative results for the German mark/Euro and Swiss franc are explained by a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the term structure model. 相似文献
5.
We characterize the exchange of financial claims from risky swaps. These transfers are among three groups: shareholders, debtholders, and the swap counterparty. From this analysis we derive equilibrium swap rates and relate them to debt market spreads. We then show that equilibrium swaps in perfect markets transfer wealth from shareholders to debtholders. In a simplified case, we obtain closed-form solutions for the value of the default risk in the swap. For interest-rate swaps, we obtain numerical solutions for the equilibrium swap rate, including default risk. We compare these with equilibrium debt market default risk spreads. 相似文献
6.
RONALD MACDONALD LUCA ANTONIO RICCI 《The South African journal of economics. Suid-afrikaanse tydskrif vir ekonomie》2005,73(4):747-753
In this note we show that the real exchange rate was indeed weakly exogenous in some of the specifications in MacDonald and Ricci (2004), but argue this was in all likelihood a function of the relatively limited degrees of freedom. We demonstrate here that by increasing the degrees of freedom, we can satisfy the weak exogeneity condition, whilst at the same time producing equilibrium estimates of the Rand which are quantitatively and qualitatively the same as those reported in MacDonald and Ricci (2004). 相似文献
7.
This paper examines the adjustments in a firm's common stock price during the eleven months before and during the month of announcement of a bond rating change. Based on several different measures of abnormal security return, the findings are consistent with the proposition that bond downgradings convey information to common stockholders. For bond upgradings, the price adjustments were statistically insignificant in the month of announcement, although in the eleven preceding months, upgraded firms exhibited positive abnormal returns. While the results do not fully support earlier research, we stress that the main contribution of this article lies in the scrutiny it gives to issues of methodology in assessing the possible price effects of bond reclassifications. 相似文献
8.
9.
This paper shows that standard international business cycle models can be reconciled with the empirical evidence on the lack of consumption risk sharing. First, we show analytically that with incomplete asset markets productivity disturbances can have large uninsurable effects on wealth, depending on the value of the trade elasticity and shock persistence. Second, we investigate these findings quantitatively in a model calibrated to the U.S. economy. With the low trade elasticity estimated via a method of moments procedure, the consumption risk of productivity shocks is magnified by high terms of trade and real exchange rate (RER) volatility. Strong wealth effects in response to shocks raise the demand for domestic goods above supply, crowding out external demand and appreciating the terms of trade and the RER. Building upon the literature on incomplete markets, we then show that similar results are obtained when productivity shocks are nearly permanent, provided the trade elasticity is set equal to the high values consistent with micro-estimates. Under both approaches the model accounts for the low and negative correlation between the RER and relative (domestic to foreign) consumption in the data—the "Backus–Smith puzzle". 相似文献
10.
MARIO FORNI LUCA GAMBETTI NICOLÒ MAFFEI-FACCIOLI LUCA SALA 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2024,56(1):5-33
Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock. This method is a contribution of the present work. 相似文献