U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises: Identification with Shifts and Rotations in the Term Structure

We develop a model to extract measures of monetary policy surprises from the maturity structure of the yield curve. The model endogenously allows for the fact that the yield curve may either shift or rotate in response to monetary policy shocks. A latent factor model approach with identification through heteroskedasticity harnesses the term structure to extract monetary policy shocks. The approach offers informational advantages over event studies. Results from the U.S. term structure from 1994 strongly support the hypothesis that differing term structure responses are reactions to different types of monetary policy shock, rather than differing reactions to the same policy shock.     

The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth

This paper considers the existence of a path of GDP corresponding to steady inflation in the prices of domestic goods. We estimate the steady inflation rate of growth, denoted the SIRG, at a little over 4 per cent p.a. in the post-float period in Australia. Changes in inflation are modelled as a nonlinear combination of growth and changes, in import price inflation. Because import price inflation is more volatile than overall inflation, policy that targets overall inflation may require growth to fluctuate considerably, whereas growth can be steady if the target is steady inflation of domestic goods' prices.     

CURRENCY MARKET CONTAGION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

During the East Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 the potential transmission of the crisis to developed markets such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand, was of considerable policy concern. Potential channels consist of anticipated movements stemming from common factors, spillovers and contagion. The empirical results show that the transmission of volatility in the East-Asian currency markets to the developed markets in the region is not due to contagion, but rather attributed to common world factors. Spillovers have a minor role in the case of Japan and to a lesser degree, Australia.     

A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy

We develop an 11-variable structural VAR for the Australian economy over the period 1980 to 1998. The VAR methodology has only relatively recently been applied in the Australian context, despite its popularity in quantitative macroeconomics internationally. Our model includes an overseas sector which distinguishes between goods and asset markets so as to disentangle the effects of shocks emanating from each source. We utilize our model to dissect the Australian growth cycle into its separate influences and to study the Asian crisis. Throughout there is a strong emphasis upon identifying the impact of monetary policy.