Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective

This paper examines ex ante effects of circuit breakers (mandated trading halts). We show that circuit breakers, by causing agents to suboptimally advance trades in time, may have the perverse effect of increasing price variability and exacerbating price movements. We next consider a situation in which a circuit breaker causes trading to be halted in both a dominant (more liquid) and a satellite market. As agents switch from the dominant market to the satellite market, price variability and market liquidity decline on the dominant market and increase on the satellite market.     

The Valuation of American Options with Stochastic Interest Rates: A Generalization of the Geske—Johnson Technique

The Geske–Johnson approach provides an efficient and intuitively appealing technique for the valuation and hedging of American-style contingent claims. Here, we generalize their approach to a stochastic interest rate economy. The method is implemented using options exercisable on one of a finite number of dates. We illustrate how the value of an American-style option increases with interest rate volatility. The magnitude of this effect depends on the extent to which the option is in the money, the volatilities of the underlying asset and the interest rates, as well as the correlation between them.     

Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition

We develop a multi-period auction model in which multiple privately informed agents strategically exploit their long-lived information. We show that such traders compete aggressively and cause most of their common private information to be revealed very rapidly. In the limit as the interval between auctions approaches zero, market depth becomes infinite and all private information is revealed immediately. These results are in contrast to those of Kyle (1985) in which the monopolistic informed trader causes his information to be incorporated into prices gradually, and, when the interval between auctions is vanishingly small, market depth is constant over time.     

Leverage Is a Double-Edged Sword

We use proprietary data on intraday transactions at a futures brokerage to analyze how implied leverage influences trading performance. Across all investors, leverage is negatively related to performance, due partly to increased trading costs and partly to forced liquidations resulting from margin calls. Defining skill out-of-sample, we find that relative performance differentials across unskilled and skilled investors persist. Unskilled investors' leverage amplifies losses from lottery preferences and the disposition effect. Leverage stimulates liquidity provision by skilled investors, and enhances returns. Although regulatory increases in required margins decrease skilled investors' returns, they enhance overall returns, and attenuate return volatility.     

The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process

This paper values options on assets whose returns, over a finite interval of time, are generated by a binomial process. It shows that a simple valuation relationship, between the option and the underlying stock, obtains if investors have preference functions that belong to a particular class, even if opportunities to hedge do not exist. One particular application of the theory is in the case where the stock price over a finite interval could increase by an amount, fall by the same amount, or stay at the same level. The results in this paper may be viewed as the foundation of the preference-based approaches to obtaining a risk neutral valuation relationship.     

Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures-Cash Basis

Deviations from no‐arbitrage relations should be related to market liquidity, because liquidity facilitates arbitrage. At the same time, a wide futures‐cash basis may trigger arbitrage trades and, in turn, affect liquidity. We test these ideas by studying the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the index futures basis. There is evidence of two‐way Granger causality between the short‐term absolute basis and liquidity, and liquidity Granger‐causes longer‐term absolute bases. Shocks to the absolute basis predict future stock market liquidity. The evidence suggests that liquidity enhances the efficiency of the futures‐cash pricing system.     

CHARACTERIZATION AND ANALYSIS OF COOPERATIVE MERGERS AND THEIR RESULTS

This study characterizes the mergers and acquisitions undertaken in the Spanish agrifood sector during the period 1995–2005. First, it aims to establish the pre‐merger financial characteristics of the merging cooperatives in comparison with other firms in the agrifood sector. For this, the financial situation is analyzed in the different types of merger carried out (merger by formation or merger by acquisition), and the different roles played by the cooperatives (acquiring, acquired or involved in a merger in which a new cooperative is formed). The second and final objective is to determine whether these mergers have managed to improve the economic‐financial situation of the companies involved, either by increasing income and size or by reducing relative costs. For this purpose, several non parametric tests and a probit model were used. The results show that on average following a merger there were no statistically significant improvements in the economic‐financial indicators studied.     

The Market Model and Capital Asset Pricing Theory: A Note

This note shows that a linear market model is sufficient to derive a linear relationship between beta and expected return. Furthermore, the slope of the relationship will be identical with that of the Capital Asset Pricing Model if the return on the market portfolio is normally distributed. However, results from characterization theory suggest that the linear market model assumption is close to that of multivariate normality.