Global Banks and Synthetic Funding: The Benefits of Foreign Relatives

This paper examines the effect of dislocations in foreign currency (FX) swap markets (“CIP deviations”) on bank lending. Using data from UK banks we show that when the cost of obtaining swap-based funds in a particular foreign currency increases, banks reduce the supply of cross-border credit in that currency. This effect is increasing in the degree of banks' reliance on swap-based FX funding. Access to foreign relatives matters as banks employ internal capital markets to shield their cross-border FX lending supply from the described channel. Partial substitution occurs from banks outside the UK not affected by changes in synthetic funding costs.     

Welfare to Well‐Being Framework for Research,Education, and Outreach

The proposed framework is intended to serve as a model for understanding the comprehensiveness of welfare assistance policies that contribute to the economic well‐being of individuals and families. The framework uses a systems approach to move thinking from a narrow focus on welfare assistance as welfare for the few to well‐being of the many. Such an approach provides a new way to understand policies and language related to welfare reform.     

The Politics of Financial Development: Evidence from Trade Liberalization

Incumbents in various industries have different incentives to promote or oppose financial development. Changes in the relative strength of promoter and opponent industries thus result in changes in the political equilibrium level of financial development. We conduct an event study using a sample of 41 countries that liberalized trade during 1970 to 2000, and show that the strengthening of promoter relative to opponent industries resulting from liberalization is a good predictor of subsequent financial development. The benefits of developing the financial system are insufficient for financial development, and rents in particular hands appear to be necessary to achieve it.     

Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-Industry Evidence

By considering yearly production growth rates for several manufacturing industries in more than 100 countries during (roughly) the last 40 years, we show that industries that are more dependent on external finance are hit harder during recessions. The observed difference in the behavior of industries is larger when financial frictions are thought to be more prevalent, linking the result directly to the financial mechanism hypothesis. In particular, more dependent industries are more strongly affected in recessions when they are located in countries with poor financial contractibility, and when their assets are softer or less protective of financiers.     

MONETARY POLICY DURING JAPAN'S LOST DECADE*

We develop a quantitative costly price adjustment model with capital formation for the Japanese economy. The model respects the zero interest rate bound and is calibrated to reproduce the nominal and real facts from the 1990s. We use the model to investigate the properties of alternative monetary policies during this period. The setting of the long‐run nominal interest rate in a Taylor rule is much more important for avoiding the zero bound than the setting of the reaction coefficients. A long‐run interest rate target of 2.3% during the 1990s avoids the zero bound and enhances welfare.     

Good News,Bad News,Volatility, and Betas

We investigate the conditional covariances of stock returns using bivariate exponential ARCH (EGARCH) models. These models allow market volatility, portfolio-specific volatility, and beta to respond asymmetrically to positive and negative market and portfolio returns, i.e., “leverage” effects. Using monthly data, we find strong evidence of conditional heteroskedasticity in both market and non-market components of returns, and weaker evidence of time-varying conditional betas. Surprisingly while leverage effects appear strong in the market component of volatility, they are absent in conditional betas and weak and/or inconsistent in nonmarket sources of risk.     

The Disposition of Audit‐Detected Misstatements: An Examination of Risk and Reward Factors and Aggregation Effects*

While professional standards indicate that auditors have the responsibility to both detect and report material errors, empirical evidence shows that auditors waive approximately 50 percent of material errors (Wright and Wright 1997). Unlike prior research that has examined factors that may affect auditors' decisions to waive single material misstatements, the current study examines auditors' propensity to waive proposed adjusting journal entries (henceforth PAJEs) that exceed materiality, either individually or in aggregate, under several different aggregation contexts. These contexts are represented in the form of different cases that vary in terms of the materiality and income direction of the individual and aggregate PAJEs. The current paper posits that auditors will be more likely to waive PAJEs in excess of materiality (i.e., make a “non‐GAAS” decision) when there is potential reward for doing so or when there is little litigation risk from doing so. The case decisions of 155 audit partners and managers indicate that they are not affected by potential reward (Client's Relative Fees), but are affected by potential risk (the Client's Financial Health, the PAJE's Subjectivity, and the PAJEs' Aggregate Directional Effect on Income). However, these factors are not equally influential across all aggregation contexts. Additionally, auditors are more likely to make non‐GAAS decisions when they are evaluating immaterial PAJEs that aggregate to a material level than when they are evaluating a single material PAJE.