Searching for the sunk cost fallacy

We seek to isolate in the laboratory factors that encourage and discourage the sunk cost fallacy. Subjects play a computer game in which they decide whether to keep digging for treasure on an island or to sink a cost (which will turn out to be either high or low) to move to another island. The research hypothesis is that subjects will stay longer on islands that were more costly to find. Eleven treatment variables are considered, e.g. alternative visual displays, whether the treasure value of an island is shown on arrival or discovered by trial and error, and alternative parameters for sunk costs. The data reveal a surprisingly small sunk cost effect that is generally insensitive to the proposed psychological drivers. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . Jel Classification C91, D11     

National culture and R&D and marketing integration mechanisms in new product development: A cross-cultural study between Singapore and New Zealand

The integration of R&D and marketing in new product development (NPD) is an important contributor to NPD performance. Of the mechanisms developed to aid functional integration, many have been developed in western cultural environments and may not have applicability in other national cultural settings. Using a sample of NPD workgroup personnel in New Zealand (NZ), the western cultural environment, and Singapore, quantitative and qualitative data have been used to measure national culture and determine the applicability of different organization integration mechanisms. Results show key differences between the two samples, indicating a link between formalization, centralization, role flexibility and interfunctional climate mechanisms with the Hofstede dimensions of Power Distance, Masculinity and Uncertainty Avoidance of national culture. Managerial implications are that national cultural values and settings of the respondents are important when determining best integration mechanisms.     

On the prediction of financial distress in developed and emerging markets: Does the choice of accounting and market information matter? A comparison of UK and Indian Firms

We examine differences in price delay for a sample of real estate investment trust (REIT) and non-REIT matched pairs. Results suggest an economically and statistically higher level of price delay for REIT securities, which implies heightened frictions that increase the time needed for new information to be impounded into the prices of REIT shares. The primary drivers for the observed delay differential include differences in idiosyncratic volatility, market risk, and the number of days traded. Within-REIT determinants of delay confirm findings for the pooled sample of matched pairs. Importantly, we infer find that REIT investors are not compensated for restricted information flow, as excess returns are unrelated to the price delay.     

AIDS and African Development

Because AIDS affects primarily the most productive age groupand is fatal and widespread, it will have a larger impact onAfrican development than other more common diseases. Infectionrates are higher in urban than in rural areas, and studies suggestthat they are highest among urban high-income, skilled men andtheir partners. Macroeconomic models show that the greater theinfection rate among educated workers and the greater the propensityto finance medical care out of savings, the more detrimentalis the impact of AIDS on the growth of per capita income. Regardlessof the macroeconomic effect, most households and businessesdirectly affected by AIDS will be economically worse off, atleast in the short run. It is not clear, however, what effectAIDS will have on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa or on incomeinequality. Governments need to assess the potential economicimpact of AIDS, implement cost-effective programs to mitigatethe impact, and target prevention programs to the economic sectorsmost sensitive to HIV infection.      

The future of health futures : Another perspective

A good ‘market’ for health futures and easy access to relevant information are among the reasons that health futures is currently centred in the wealthy nations. Interest in health futures is growing in the less developed countries, however, in part because of efforts by WHO and its regional office. Many benefits can be expected if the field becomes more international, including an influx of fresh ideas about health futures study designs and about innovative approaches to health care. A shift to a more global orientation is also imperative simply because health futures deals with the well-being of human beings, and most human beings live in the less developed countries of the world.     

Pedestrian traffic injuries in Mexico: A country update

Road traffic injuries in general and pedestrian injuries in particular are a major public health problem in Mexico, especially in large urban areas. Analysis of mortality and road crashes at the national level was done using routine data recorded on death certificates. Fatality rates for different age groups were estimated by region for the year 2000. These data were supplemented by a cross-sectional study of pedestrian injuries in Mexico City based on death certificates information for pedestrians who lived and died in Mexico City between 1994 and 1997. Participant observation of physical spaces where crashes occurred was carried out. The spaces were filmed and in-depth interviews of survivors conducted. Road traffic crashes were responsible for approximately 17,500 deaths in Mexico during 2000. The mean age of the victims was 37 years. Mexico lost an average of 30 years of productive life for each individual who died in a traffic crash – 525,000 years in 2000. An estimated 9500 (54.3%) of all fatalities were pedestrians, and for every pedestrian death there were 13 others who sustained nonfatal injuries requiring medical care. The overall crude mortality rate for pedestrian injuries in Mexico City was 7.14 per 100,000 (CI 6.85-7.42). A concentration of deaths was observed in 10 neighborhoods at specific types of street environments. The underlying factors included dangerous crossings and the absence or inadequacy of pedestrian bridges, as well as negative perceptions of road safety by pedestrians. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the importance of elucidating the underlying contextual determinants of pedestrian injuries.     

Ingredients in the Early Development of the U.S. Biotechnology Industry

This paper explores the ingredients that stimulated the development of the biotechnology industry in the US and contrasts conditions with those in Europe. It examines relationships between established firms and new start-ups; the financing and managerial environment and the organizational environment, whereby firms were able to set up networks of alliances. Its main findings are that: 1) The funding of the medical science research base has been substantially more generous in the U.S. than Europe. It is the funding of the science base rather than of the biotechnology industry directly that has provided the foundations for start-ups to be created out of the science base. 2) It has been easier for U.S. academics to found start-ups, close to their research establishment, and to retain their academic posts and status as well as be involved in a commercial enterprise. In Europe, the scientific/academic and commercial worlds have a wider divide. 3) Start-ups have been concentrated in the therapeutics and agricultural fields, with strong scientific research inputs into their commercialization, in contrast to other sectors where downstream processing innovations have been more important, which have been undertaken in-house by the large incumbent companies. 4) Financing and managerial conditions have been significantly easier in the U.S. for start-ups, in terms of access to venture capital specialising in high technology, ability to use the stock market to raise capital, and access to people able to forge links between scientists and entrepreneurs, and to introduce managerial expertise into new companies. 5) There has been a greater facility in the U.S. than in Europe for alliances to be formed between incumbent companies and indigenous U.S. start-ups; European start-ups have not found similar backing from European incumbent companies.