An alternative interpretation of the discontinuity in earnings distributions

We show that the asymmetric effects of income taxes and special items for profit and loss firms contribute to a discontinuity at zero in the distribution of earnings. Income taxes draw profit observations towards zero while negative special items pull loss observations away from zero. These earnings components are thus expected to contribute to a discontinuity even in the absence of discretion. We show our results are not an artifact of deflation and that other common components of earnings do not have similar effects on the earnings distribution around zero.

An Empirical Investigation of the True and Fair Override in the United Kingdom

Abstract:  The True and Fair View concept requires companies to depart from GAAP or the law if necessary to present a true and fair view of the corporation's financial affairs. We analyze UK public companies invoking a true and fair override to assess whether overrides are associated with weakened performance, earnings quality and informativeness. We find quantified overrides increase income and equity significantly, and firms that invoke more costly overrides report weaker performance. We also find that firms invoking the most costly overrides have less informative financial statements than control firms, and lower earnings quality. In contrast, firms invoking less costly overrides do not exhibit weaker performance, less informative financial statements or weaker earnings quality. These findings are relevant for the debate on principle- vs. rules-based accounting.     

Conservatism correction for the market-to-book ratio and Tobin’s q

We decompose the market-to-book ratio into two additive components: a conservatism correction factor and a future-to-book ratio. The conservatism correction factor exceeds the benchmark value of one whenever the accounting for past transactions has been subject to an (unconditional) conservatism bias. The observed history of a firm’s past investments allows us to calculate the magnitude of its conservatism correction factor, resulting in an average value that is about two-thirds of the overall market-to-book ratio. We demonstrate that our measure of Tobin’s q, obtained as the market-to-book ratio divided by the conservatism correction factor, has greater explanatory power in predicting future investments than the market-to-book ratio by itself. Our model analysis derives a number of structural properties of the conservatism correction factor, including its sensitivity to growth in past investments, the percentage of investments in intangibles, and the firm’s cost of capital. We provide empirical support for these hypothesized structural properties.     

Situational ethics: An empirical study of differentiators of student attitudes

This paper reports the results of a questionnaire administered to 1178 undergraduate students and discusses how they responded to ten situations which asked them to assess their personal evaluation of the ethical acceptability, how society would similarly assess the situation and how business persons would respond. Multiple versions of the instrument were developed to investigate if the sex of the person involved in the situation would influence the respondents' perception of the ethical action involved. No differences were identified. Further, the image of business persons as less ethical than society in general seems to have evaporated. Charles W. McNichols is Professor of Management at Clemson University where he teaches courses emphasizing management applications of computer technology. He was previously Professor of Operations Research at the Air Force Institute of Technology. He has published three books dealing with business and professional applications of microcomputers, and articles in the Academy of Management Journal, Journal of Applied Psychology,the IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,and other management publications. Thomas W. Zimmer is Professor of Management at Clemson University. He has authored books on business, business policy supervision and small business management, as well as over 50 articles which have appeared in Nation's Business, Management Review, Human Resources Management,and many others. Dr. Zimmerer has been honored in his academic career by membership both in Beta Gamma Sigma and Phi Kappa Phi, as well as twice being voted by the students as the outstanding teacher in his college. In 1975 he was elected to Outstanding Educators in American. Dr. Zimmerer was formerly with Florida Atlantic University and the McDonald-Douglas Corporation.     

Does Meeting Earnings Expectations Matter? Evidence from Analyst Forecast Revisions and Share Prices

This paper investigates whether the market rewards firms meeting current period earnings expectations, and whether any such reward reflects the implications of meeting expectations in the current period for future earnings or reflects a distinct market premium. We document that abnormal annual returns are significantly greater for firms meeting expectations, controlling for the information in the current year's earnings. We then test whether firms meeting expectations experience higher returns simply because their expected future earnings are also higher. We find firms meeting expectations have significantly higher earnings forecasts and realized earnings than firms that do not. We find that controlling for these higher future earnings, firms meeting expectations in one or two years do not receive a greater valuation than their fundamentals would suggest. We find, however, that the market assigns a higher value to firms that meet expectations consistently, controlling for an estimate of the firm's fundamental value.     

Discussion of “Why are Earnings Kinky? An Examination of the Earnings Management Explanation”

The Dechow et al. paper (2003, this issue) on the distribution of earnings raises an important question: why are earnings kinky? They conduct a number of tests of the earnings management explanation and do not find supportive evidence. They also provide evidence that a number of factors influence the magnitude of the discontinuity in earnings, suggesting that it is a poor proxy for the extent of earnings management. This discussion addresses the contribution of their study, the power of their tests and the implications for future research.     

The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID‐19

Large in‐person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID‐19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7–16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask‐wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay‐at‐home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID‐19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference‐in‐differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4–12.5% increase in COVID‐19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID‐19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.     

Do Stock Prices of Property Casualty Insurers Fully Reflect Information about Earnings,Accruals, Cash Flows,and Development?

This paper examines whether the stock prices of property and casualty (P&C) insurers fully reflect information contained in earnings, cash flows and accruals, and one particular accrual—development of loss reserves. The reserve for policy losses is a major accrual for P&C firms, requires substantial judgment and is the subject of unique disclosures that reveal the ex post error in management estimates. We find that investors underestimate the persistence of cash flows and overestimate the persistence of accruals for P&C insurers, but our evidence suggests the market does not underestimate the persistence of the development accrual.     

Quick and continuous improvement through kaizen blitz.

It is our objective to provide you with a step-by-step approach to conducting a kaizen blitz within two days and describe how to achieve dramatic performance improvement with employee buy-in through this process. Kaizen blitz has been used dozens of times by the authors, and in some instances the same area has been blitzed as many as four times, with significant improvements each and every time. Employees have even taken it on themselves to conduct informal blitzes as a continuing improvement effort after a formal blitz has been conducted in their area. Blitzes can succeed in a variety of environments. The morning after the employees of one company attended this presentation, they self initiated a mini-blitz and discovered opportunities for improvement that they enthusiastically presented to management.     

Do differences in financial reporting attributes impair the predictive ability of financial ratios for bankruptcy?

This study explores the effect of cross-sectional and time-series differences in financial reporting attributes on the predictive ability of financial ratios for bankruptcy. We identify proxies for discretion over financial reporting, the importance of intangible assets, the comprehensiveness of the accounting model and recognition of losses. Each of our proxies for financial reporting attributes is associated with financial ratios that are less informative in predicting bankruptcy. Furthermore, our time-series tests reveal a decline in the predictive ability of financial ratios for bankruptcy and document that this decline is associated with our measures of financial reporting attributes.