Problem-oriented participative forecasting : Theory and practice

Problem-oriented participative forecasting¹ (POPF) is an autonomous and evolving concept. It aims not only to provide early signals of threats to development or to identify opportunities for development, but also to articulate interests and mobilize different social groups to act in a manner conducive to the elimination of such threats and exploitation of such opportunities. This concept of the function of forecasting has major factual and methodological implications. The focus of this article is primarily on the forecasting process as a way of active social learning and anticipatory behaviour. It attempts to synthesize the problem-oriented and participative approaches to forecasting into a single methodology, which it documents by a specific example of its application in science forecasting in the Slovak Socialist Republic.     

Geosite assessments: comparison of methods and results

Geotourism as a rapidly evolving and attractive tourism form expands into many regions. This ‘new’ tourism form brings new research issues to be solved including, e.g. geosite identification, geosite assessment, geopark establishment, (geo)tourist trail definitions. One of the biggest challenges of researchers not only in the field of geotourism is to set specific value of an individual locality. The aim of this paper is to compare selected assessment methods of geosites. Different quantitative methods were selected due to fact that it is possible to compare final score of assessments. The results show that using different assessment methods on selected localities gives different results and geosite rankings. Based on this fact, further research in the field of geosite assessment is needed for (geo)tourism planning and management as discussed in this paper.     

An economic model of religious organization under oppressive regulation

This paper aims to explain the behavior of certain religious organizations in countries with severe regulation that limits the religious market, such as those under communist rule. Religious organizations in those countries sometimes choose to operate both legally and illegally. The model proposed here shows that such behavior may increase the consumer welfare of religionists compared to solely legal or illegal provision of religious services. It assumes that religious organizations maximize the consumer surplus of their adherents. The choice of a religious organization between legal and illegal provision of religious services depends on the costs of religious participation imposed by the government and the set-up costs of dual operation. As an illustration, the paper accounts for the different response of the Catholic Church to restrictions imposed by the communists in Poland and Czechoslovakia.